“Absent a strike of lightning, I do not believe we’re going to pick up the House tonight.”

— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by Politico, on the Democratic campaign efforts.

New York Times: “Republicans are closely watching Colorado, where Senator Mark Udall and Gov. John W. Hickenlooper, both Democrats, are in danger of losing. Mr. Obama won the state twice, and with a younger, increasingly progressive population, Colorado has been trending Democratic. If Representative Cory Gardner can defeat Mr. Udall, who made his campaign almost exclusively about abortion rights and contraception, it will demonstrate that Republicans still have strength in a state that could be essential to regaining the presidency.”

“Democrats are hoping their Georgia candidates, Michelle Nunn for the Senate and Jason Carter for governor, can either win or at least post strong showings. Of the states that the two parties did not compete for in the 2012 presidential race, Georgia was the closest (Mr. Obama lost by seven points), and it is gradually becoming more of a polyglot hub than an Old South vestige. If Ms. Nunn or Mr. Carter wins or loses narrowly while drawing less than 30 percent of the white vote, it suggests that Georgia will be a competitive presidential state sooner than many observers expected.”

Wall Street Journal: “Members of both parties, however, caution against reading too much into Tuesday’s results. The complexion of the electorate is expected to be markedly different in 2016. Turnout by Democratic-friendly voting blocs, including minorities, young people and unmarried women, tends to drop off in midterm elections and surge in presidential election years.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “I love Election Day. And this is a good one, with lots of great stories. We have a former senator from Massachusetts trying to make a comeback in New Hampshire, and a former Republican senator running as an independent in South Dakota. In Kansas, an independent has an excellent chance of winning. As for gubernatorial elections, there are more toss-ups than you can shake a stick at, including a race in Alaska where the independent candidate is supported by both Democrats and former Governor Sarah Palin. The career of at least one Republican presidential candidate, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, hangs in the balance; at least one other, John Kasich of Ohio, would get a boost from an expected big win.”

“We’ll probably get a new Senate majority, though there’s still an unusual amount of uncertainty. We could get a Republican gubernatorial landslide — in New England of all places. Or we could have a Republican sweep in the Senate, and major Democratic gains in governors along with large Republican pickups in state legislatures, despite all the talk of polarization and party voting. And we’ll get the usual mix of new legislators in Washington and the states, all sorts of serious aspiring lawmakers and total crackpots.”

Roll Call: “House Democrats are bracing for losses on Election Day, but just how bad of a night will it be?”

Charlie Cook: “The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a night Republicans will have, and in turn, how to best interpret the results. At this point, at least in the Senate, this election seems to be a whole lot about the map, with more than a little political environment, including President Obama’s current unpopularity, thrown in for good measure.”

“If Republicans take the Senate, but their gains are limited to the six states that Mitt Romney carried by at least 14 points—open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, along with the defeat of Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana (though this would not likely happen until a December 6 runoff)—that would be a good but hardly extraordinary night for the GOP. This would be a map election.”

After months of forecasting — and debating their methodologies — every one of the most reputable forecasters says that Republicans are favored to win the U.S. Senate.

Here are the odds each gives to Republicans for taking control of the upper chamber:

Election Lab: 98%

FiveThirtyEight: 76%

The Upshot: 70%

Princeton: 61%

Let us know what you think in the comments.

First Read: “We’ll have a good idea early in the evening of how Election Night is going to break. The two states to watch — North Carolina (where final polling places close at 7:30 am ET) and New Hampshire (where they close at 8:00 pm ET). Every scenario of Democrats holding on to the Senate assumes they win those two states. If we’re able to put those two in the Democratic column, then we’re going to have to wait for Alaska, especially if Georgia goes to a runoff. But if Republicans win one or both of North Carolina and New Hampshire, then Katy bar the door. It’s going to be an ugly night for Democrats. Here is the list of our other states to watch by final poll-closing time.”

“Indeed, if any state has been a bellwether of the nation’s political mood over the past decade, it’s been New Hampshire. Consider: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen lost the state’s Senate contest in the pro-GOP year of 2002; Democrats swept the state in 2006 and 2008; Republicans made gains there in 2010; and Democrats won them back in 2012. The only exception here was in 2004, when John Kerry (who was from neighboring Massachusetts) won New Hampshire, despite the GOP’s narrow wins that year. So for Democrats to have a good night, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) are going to need to buck history. “

“It is a recipe for sensory overload: Election returns will start flooding every device and screen Tuesday evening, capturing the outcomes of 36 governors’ contests, the battle for control of the Senate, nearly 50 competitive House races and countless ballot questions,” the New York Times reports.

“Some trends are clear: A big night is expected for Republicans, a dreary one for Democrats. But some mysteries and many intriguing questions remain, and their answers will emerge throughout the evening. Here is a guide to what to watch for on election night, and how to cut through the cacophony.”

DailyKos has an excellent hour-by-hour guide to watch Election Night returns.

Roll Call has updated its rankings of the 10 most vulnerable Senators and House Members.

Here are the latest probabilities of Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections:

Election Lab: 96%

FiveThirtyEight: 73%

The Upshot: 68%

Princeton: 63%