Political Wire

Republicans Reclaim Purple States

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“More striking than any Republican gains in red-state America on Tuesday were the party’s Senate victories in Colorado and North Carolina and the near miss in Virginia,” the New York Times reports.

“All are states that both parties believed were trending Democratic, and that Democrats boasted would before long be out of reach to Republicans.”

“But a powerful lesson for both parties emerged from the returns: Demographic shifts that are gradually reshaping the American electorate, making it more racially diverse and younger, cannot overcome a difficult political environment and a weak message in a nonpresidential year. And the Democratic edge in sophisticated technological voter mobilization and targeting is eroding, as Republicans adopt similar techniques and catch up.”

McConnell Expected to Woo King and Manchin

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Two Senate sources tell The Hill that they expect Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to reach out to Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) about joining the Senate Republican conference.

“Republicans have a 52-seat Senate majority and that could swell to 54 seats depending on the final vote tally in Alaska and a runoff in Louisiana next month. Both are solidly red states.”

Obama Has Faced Historic Congressional Losses

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“President Obama has lost nearly 70 seats in the House since taking office and more seats in midterm elections than any president since Harry Truman,” The Hill reports.

“Democrats have suffered a net loss of at least 69 House seats since 2008, with the possibility that Republicans could pick up even more seats as the final midterm races are called. Senate Democrats have not fared much better, losing a net of at least 13 seats since Obama took office.”

How Mark Warner Almost Got Beat

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National Journal: “When Gillespie – previously a lobbyist, Republican National Committee chair and Bush White House aide – entered the race at the start of 2014, few observers gave him much chance to win. He was positioned to be the GOP’s sacrificial lamb, and even as the race tightened in the closing weeks, many Republicans still figured Gillespie had a better shot at the governorship in 2017 than the Senate in 2014.”

“But Gillespie sensed from the start that this year’s climate would favor Republicans, and he pounded Warner incessantly as an alleged Obama clone who voted with the president nearly all the time in the Senate. Recognizing that Warner’s stint in the governor’s mansion was still fondly remembered by most Virginians, Gillespie and his fellow Republicans claimed repeatedly that ‘Governor Warner wouldn’t recognize Senator Warner today.'”

An Epic Turnout Collapse for House Democrats

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David Wasserman: “It’s hard to overstate House Democrats’ bad night. By all measures, Republicans enjoyed an historic night, exceeding pre-election expectations across the country. There are fewer than ten races where the outcome is in some doubt, but Republicans appear headed for a 250-seat majority, give or take three seats, for a gain of between 13 and 19. A net gain of 13 would give them their largest majority since Herbert Hoover won the presidency in 1928.”

“Plain and simple, the story in House races was an epic turnout collapse and motivational deficit. Democrats’ surprisingly large losses are attributable to ‘orphan states’ where there was little enthusiasm for top-of-the-ticket Democrats.”

Christie Is Owed Many Favors

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), “who visited 19 states in the five days leading up to yesterday’s elections to rally support for fellow Republicans, can rest on a stack of owed political favors,” Bloomberg reports.

“Republicans, who dominate the U.S. House of Representatives, captured the U.S. Senate and added at least two governor’s offices to the 29 they control. As the party’s possible 2016 presidential contenders seize on the momentum, Christie, 52, has early national exposure and donor appeal, having raised a record $102 million for races as chairman of the Republican Governors Association.”

A Tornado Election

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David Firestone: “The clichéd term for what happened last night is ‘wave election,’ but if natural phenomena are going to be evoked, the more accurate expression is ‘tornado election:’ widespread destruction in weird, jagged patterns that are often difficult to explain when it’s over.”

“When a force that powerful is fueled by anger rather than careful analysis, it produces results that can seem irrational. More than a third of people voting for a Republican House candidate said they were unhappy or even angry at the Republican leaders in Congress, according to exit polls, but they did so anyway, producing a House that is even more right-wing than the current one.”

The Polls Were Skewed Towards Democrats

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Nate Silver: “For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.”

“The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ‘skewed polls’ arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them. Based on results as reported through early Wednesday morning… the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points. The average gubernatorial poll was just as bad, also overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 4 points.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“She’s said to be the front-runner for the nomination for their party. So really elections are about who the leadership is in a party, and it’s about either accepting or rejecting those leaders. And frankly, I think that yesterday was a repudiation of Hillary Clinton.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by The Week, on the meaning of the midterm elections.

The Democratic Coalition Collapses

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First Read: “It wasn’t the map that did in the Democrats (after all, explain the losses in Maryland and Maine); it’s wasn’t your typical Six-Year Itch election; and it wasn’t an anti-incumbent mood (Rick Scott, Scott Walker, Rick Snyder, even Paul LePage all won). Rather, what we saw was collapse of the Democratic coalition that helped elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012. If Democrats were going to hold off a Republican tsunami, they needed their base voters to come out to the polls and pull the lever for the president’s party. That didn’t happen where Democrats needed it to.”

“Especially with young voters. Nationally, Democratic base groups — young voters, single women, African-Americans and Latinos — posted numbers that looked more like the Democrats’ 2010 midterm ‘shellacking’ than Obama’s 2012 re-election victory. Most strikingly, voters 18-29 nationwide were only 13% of the electorate in 2014 (compared with 22% for GOP-leaning seniors.) In the 2010 midterms, young voters made up 12% of the voting public. In contrast, during Obama’s re-election victory in 2012, 19% of the electorate was under 30.”

Where We Stand

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Morning Line has an excellent summary of last night’s election results:

SENATE:
Was: 53-45 Democratic advantage with two independents caucusing with the Democrats

Now: 52-43 Republican advantage with two independents. There are still three races that have not yet been called — Virginia, Alaska and Louisiana, but Republicans’ number could move up to 54 seats. They’re leading in Alaska and Rep. Bill Cassidy is the favorite in a head-to-head runoff Dec. 6 with incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.

Net gain: +7 currently, could get up to +9.

HOUSE:
Was: 234-201 Republican advantage

Now: 242-174 Republican advantage with 19 seats that have still not been called. But when all the counting is done, Republicans could get up to 250 seats, which is what NBC is projecting. Democrats picked up one seat in Florida, but lost 14.

Net gain: +13 currently, could get up to +19 give or take a few seats.

GOVERNORS:
Was: 29-21 Republican advantage

Now: 31-15 Republican advantage with four races not yet called: Alaska, Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. Currently, Democrats lead in Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. By the way, despite the record number of governors at risk, just two incumbents potentially could wind up losing (Pat Quinn, D, in Illinois and Sean Parnell, R, in Alaska) if the Democrats in Colorado and Connecticut, who are leading, win. By the way, in a symbolic blow to Democrats, Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin did not reach the necessary 50 percent and now the legislature will decide his fate. He is expected to be reelected because it is Democratic-controlled.

Net gain: +3, could drop to +2 if Sean Parnell, who is currently trailing, loses to independent Bill Walker.

All Politics Is National

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Amy Walter: “Democrats believed they could help isolate and insulate their vulnerable Democrats from an unpopular president by making each contest about the individual candidates. Democrats hoped that the tainted GOP brand combined with incumbent candidates with solid political pedigrees who ‘knew their states’ could prevail over the country’s pessimistic mood. It didn’t work.”

Obama to Discuss Midterm Election Results

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President Obama will hold a news conference this afternoon, “facing the White House press corps one day after Democrats were blown out in the midterm elections,” The Hill reports.

“The president, aides say, is anxious to get to work, telling staff he wants them to make the most out of every day of his remaining time in office. And the administration is hoping to telegraph a willingness to work with new Republican leadership in light of Tuesday’s stinging rebuke.”

In 2006, President George W. Bush called the wave sweeping Republicans out of office a “thumping.” In 2010, President Obama called a similar landslide election a “shellacking.”

What will he call this year’s election?

Making It All About Obama

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Washington Post: “From the outset of the campaign, Republicans had a simple plan: Don’t make mistakes, and make it all about Obama, Obama, Obama. Every new White House crisis would bring a new Republican ad. And every Democratic incumbent would be attacked relentlessly for voting with the president 97 or 98 or 99 percent of the time.”

New York Times: “Tensions between the Democratic Senate candidates and the president kept bubbling up throughout the campaign. It did not help that the Democrats defending their seats felt that Mr. Obama had refused to come to terms with how damaged his political brand had become in their states, and how perilous his embrace was.”

GOP Turnout Machine Worked as Predicted

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“At Republicans headquarters in Washington, top strategists predicted days in advance that the GOP would win the Senate and gain House seats despite polls suggesting many races could go either way,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“The party points to the $100 million it has spent overhauling the way it campaigns, finally giving it a data and analytics-driven operation that can compete with the Democratic machine built by President Obama.”

“Just as importantly, McNulty and his staff decided to do what the Democrats did and focus their energies almost entirely on getting out the vote among groups highly likely to be Republican but don’t usually vote in midterm elections. Final statistics are still not in, but McNulty predicted that the GOP would maintain its historic midterm turnout advantage because the party didn’t waste resources reaching out to people who were already reliable Republican voters.”

Far Worse Than Democrats Feared

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“Campaign 2014 surpassed its advance billing, as an electorate that was deeply unhappy with all its leaders handed the biggest rebuke to President Obama and the Democrats by giving Republicans control of the Senate. For Democrats, election night turned out far worse than any of them had feared,” Dan Balz writes.

“At every turn in almost every state, the Republicans proved superior. They won nearly every competitive contest in states held by Democrats and held on to the states that had looked like they might go to the Democrats. Instead of slipping into the majority, the GOP stormed to power in the Senate.”

“That wasn’t all. In a year when incumbent governors in both parties were endangered, the Republicans prevailed and the Democrats did not, including in some of the bluest states in the nation.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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