A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) just ahead of challenger Mark Schauer (D), 46% to 45%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) just ahead of challenger Bruce Rauner (R), 47% to 45%.

A new Zogby poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 38%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 8%.

However, a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Crist and Scott tied at 44%.

In a “stunning move,” Joe Visconti (I) said he was dropping out of the race for Connecticut governor and endorsing Tom Foley (R), the Hartford Courant reports.

“The move could provide a boost to Foley in a race recent polls have put at a dead heat… Visconti said he was dropping out because he doesn’t want to see Democratic incumbent Dan Malloy re-elected.”

Said Visconti: “This is a dogfight and I couldn’t let Gov. Malloy win.”

Harry Enten: “In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.”

A new NBC News/Marist Poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leads Michelle Nunn (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 44%.

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) has charged to a 7-point lead over Bruce Braley (D), 51% to 44%, “which buoys the GOP’s hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.”

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “This race looks like it’s decided. That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”

Nate Silver: “This poll, in other words, is a big deal. Just as Ernst’s chances have surpassed 70 percent for the first time, so have the GOP’s chances of taking over the Senate, which are now 72 percent. This is not coincidental: Iowa is a pivot point in the Senate calculus, and the two numbers have closely tracked each other for much of the year.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Louisiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) leading challenger Bill Cassidy (R) in the jungle primary, 43% to 35%.

However, a head-to-head match in a December runoff shows Cassidy leading 48% to 47%.

A new NBC News/Marist poll shows the same result with Landrieu leading the primary, 44% to 36%, but losing a runoff 50% to 45%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) with a solid lead over challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 50% to 42%.

A new NBC News/Marist poll has McConnell ahead 50% to 41%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%.

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio finds Gov. John Kasich (R) is thumping challenger Ed FitzGerald (D) by 28 points, 62% to 34%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) just ahead of challenger Mary Burke (D), 48% to 47%.

A new We Ask America poll in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) leads challenger Bruce Rauner (R) in the campaign’s final days, 50% to 45%.

Norm Ornstein: “The most common press narrative for elections this year is to contrast them with the 2010 and 2012 campaigns. Back then, the GOP “establishment” lost control of its nominating process, ended up with a group of extreme Senate candidates who said wacky things–Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle–and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in races that should have been slam dunks. Now the opposite has happened: The establishment has fought back and won, vanquishing the Tea Party and picking top-flight candidates who are disciplined and mainstream, dramatically unlike Akin and Angle.”

“It is a great narrative, a wonderful organizing theme. But any evidence that contradicts or clouds the narrative devalues it, which is perhaps why evidence to the contrary tends to be downplayed or ignored. Meantime, stories that show personal gaffes or bonehead moves by the opponents of these new, attractive mainstream candidates, fit that narrative and are highlighted.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Gov. Dan Malloy (D) leads challenger Tom Foley (R) in the race for governor, 44% to 41%, with independent Joe Visconti getting 6%.

A new Western New England University poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governor, 46% to 41%.

A new University of Massachusetts poll has Coakley ahead, 47% to 44%.

A new University of New Orleans poll in Louisiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) leads challenger Bill Cassidy (R) by five points, 38% to 33%, with retired Rob Maness (R) at 7%.

In a head-to-head match up, Cassidy leads Landrieu by 51% to 43%.

Stu Rothenberg: “President Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row. In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S. Truman.”