Sam Wang admits that everyone’s election forecasts “are, to an extent, built on sand. Historically, in any given year midterm polls have been off in the same direction by a median of 2 or 3 percentage points. Depending on the year, either Democrats or Republicans end up outperforming polls. In current poll medians, six races are within less than 2 percentage points: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. Therefore all six of these races could be won by Republicans…or all six could be won by Democrats.”

“The polls will be off, on average, by some amount in one direction or the other. Let’s call that average amount Delta. On Election Night, I will be watching returns carefully for clues about how large Delta is. In particular, I’ll be watching Kentucky and New Hampshire. Even though both races have a clear favorite, they have the advantage that voting ends fairly early in the evening. If either party outperforms polls in these states, that might indicate a broader trend nationwide.”

New York Times: “Democrats are nervously counting on an enduring edge among female voters in most states to prevent a Republican rout in Tuesday’s elections. Yet so great is the uncertainty that even before the returns are in, some are second-guessing the party’s strategy of focusing more on issues like abortion and birth control than on jobs and the economy.”

“The danger for Democratic candidates is that their advantage among women could be so reduced by dissatisfaction with President Obama and the country’s course that it is not enough to offset Republicans’ usual edge among the smaller population of male voters.”

A new Rasmussen survey in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) five points ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D) in the race for U.S. Senate, 47% to 42%.

A new Siena College Poll finds Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) has opened a wide, 19-point lead over challenger Domenic Recchia (D), 53% to 34%.

Said pollster Steven Greenberg: “Early on, this race looked like it was going to be one of the closest in the state – a former Democratic City Council member taking on an embattled incumbent Republican under Federal indictment in a district that is – at least by enrollment – dominated by Democrats. That no longer seems to be the case, as Grimm has taken a commanding 19-point lead into the final days of the campaign.”

A new CNN/ORC poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

A new Fox News poll finds Hagan ahead by one point, 43% to 42%.

A new CNN/ORC survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race by two points, 49% to 47%.

A new Rasmussen survey has Ernst ahead by one point, 48% to 47%.

A new Fox News poll also has Ernst ahead by one point, 45% to 44%.

A new Des Moines Register poll will be released on Saturday night.

A new Fox News poll in Kansas Greg Orman (I) holds a one-point edge over Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 43%.

A similar poll three weeks ago found Roberts leading by three points.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Mary Burke (D)by just one point, 48% to 47%.

“Convicted killer Nikko Jenkins offered his take on the race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District at a hearing to determine his mental status Wednesday,” KETV reports.

Shouted Jenkins: “Hey you guys, vote for Lee Terry! Best Republican ever!”

“Democrats had called for the removal of commercials by the National Republican Campaign Committee, one of which shows a photo of Jenkins and claims Terry’s challenger, Brad Ashford, ‘supported the good time law and still defends it, allowing criminals like Nikko Jenkins to be released early.’ The Terry campaign stood behind the ad.”

Politico: “After two years of obsessive focus on the teetering reelection prospects of red-state Democrats, the attention is about to shift in a major way to blue-state Republicans. Six of them who rode anti-Obama sentiment to office in 2010 are up in two years, and they’ll face the dual challenge of a more diverse electorate and potentially Hillary Clinton atop the Democratic ticket.”

“The leftward-tilting map means a GOP-controlled Senate could be short-lived if the party prevails on Tuesday. Even in the best-case scenario for the party, a Republican majority is certain to be slim.”

Our good friends at the Cook Political Report have made their latest House and Senate analysis freely available.

It’s a must-read as we head into the final weekend before the midterm elections.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) and Bruce Braley (D) tied in their U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%.

“Democratic efforts to turn out the young and nonwhite voters who sat out the 2010 midterm elections appear to be paying off in several Senate battleground states. More than 20 percent of the nearly three million votes already tabulated in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa have come from people who did not vote in the last midterm election,” according to an analysis of early-voting data by The Upshot.

A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) leads challenger Ed Gillespie (R) by seven points, 51% to 44%.

A new Vox Populi Polling survey shows Warner with a four point lead, 44% to 40%.

A new WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll in finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) increasing her lead in the U.S. Senate race over Scott Brown (R) to eight points, 50% to 42%.

A new Landmark Communications poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) and Michelle Nunn (D) essentially tied in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 47%.

A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) with a solid lead over Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governor, 44% to 37%.

A new Survey USA poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) leading challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) in the U.S. Senate, 48% to 43%.