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The Georgia Runoff Will Be Very Competitive

April 19, 2017 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “Looking ahead to the June 20 runoff in GA-6, it’s going to be very competitive. Just compare Ossoff’s percentage (48.1%) with the combined percentage of the Top 4 GOP candidates (48.2%). Or compare the total percentage for all Democrats (48.9%), versus the percentage for all 11 Republicans in the field (51%). Still, with Ossoff getting 48% last night, you might give him the very slight edge heading into the runoff.”

“And so Democrats need a win here; anything less will be a disappointment for them. Also, the race will be a good early test of what is worse — President Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi? Because Georgians are going to see a lot of TV ads in the next two months tying the nominees to both of these national politicians.”

Harry Enten: “Polls conducted before Tuesday suggested that Handel and Ossoff were running in a near tie in a potential runoff. In an average of five polls conducted since mid-March, Ossoff held a scant 0.4-point lead over Handel. A formula created by my colleague Nate Silver based off previous runoff elections also points to a tight runoff.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Republicans Avoid Calamity in Two Special Elections

April 19, 2017 at 8:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “But both races gave Republicans a scare they never would have anticipated six months ago — and demonstrated that Democrats have galvanized the anti-Trump activism of the past three months into votes at the ballot box. Even though Democrats came up short in each race, these were seats way down the list of top Democratic targets. This was particularly true of the Estes race, in a district where Trump won by an overwhelming margin.”

“Far richer targets await in the 2018 midterm elections.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign

Parties Buckle Down for Two-Month Runoff Battle

April 19, 2017 at 7:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Republicans and Democrats were already telegraphing strategy for a two-month runoff even before voters in Georgia’s 6th District had finished casting ballots on Tuesday, when Ossoff garnered 48 percent of the all-party primary vote. Last Friday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee posted research materials on Handel and another top Republican contender online, highlighting preferred attack lines for outside groups that could dive into the fray.”

“And Republicans look set to reprise their TV ads casting Ossoff as a bad fit for the usually conservative-leaning district: National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Steve Stivers linked Ossoff to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and “Hollywood stars” in his late-night statement about the race, while the Congressional Leadership Fund mentioned ‘Hillary’ and ‘liberal.'”

A Republican tells Playbook: “Everyone is in ‘disbelief!’ that Trump has made GA-06, otherwise a safe R district, competitive. Well, it cuts both ways – he also won PA, MI, and WI in the presidential – first R since Reagan. It’s time to finally realize the old rules don’t apply. Trump is an unorthodox candidate and president and he’s going to make previously safe seats (both R and D) competitive in the mid-terms because he changes the old dynamic.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Ossoff and Handel Headed for a Runoff in Georgia

April 18, 2017 at 7:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) are headed to a runoff in Georgia’s 6th congressional district after the Democrats fell just short of winning a majority of votes.

Washington Post: “Ossoff could find it difficult to sustain the momentum he witnessed this past week in a traditionally Republican district that has been in GOP hands since 1979. Although Handel had earned 19.7 percent of the vote with 88 percent of precincts reporting, in a runoff she is widely expected to rally Republican voters who had divided their votes among 11 GOP candidates in Tuesday’s race.”

The New York Times has the final results.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Trump Rolls the Dice In Georgia

April 18, 2017 at 12:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “Democrats always wanted to make tonight’s special congressional election in Georgia about President Trump. And he’s obliged in the last 24 hours — by tweeting about the contest… and then by recording a robocall in the contest.”

“And while Trump here is trying to gin up Republican turnout — to keep Ossoff below 50% to force a June 20 runoff — his involvement could also further motivate Democrats. It’s the same kind of damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation Barack Obama frequently faced: You’re going to get blamed if you don’t get involved and lose, so you might as well help your downballot candidates. But what’s remarkable here is that Trump isn’t touting a particular Republican (11 are in the field); he’s trying to stop one single Democrat — in a congressional district (urban, upscale) that’s not necessarily tailor-made for the president.”

FiveThirtyEight: Everything you need to know about the Georgia 6th congressional district special election.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Expect the Early Vote Count in Georgia to Be Misleading

April 18, 2017 at 12:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “It’s hard to remember a House race that has earned more national attention than the one to replace Secretary Tom Price in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. Republicans have dominated the district for a generation, but the leading Democratic candidate, Jon Ossoff, has an outside shot to win outright on Tuesday by winning more than 50 percent of the vote.”

“It’s not clear what to expect Tuesday night, however. It’s hard to estimate how many people will vote, and the public polls are of fairly low quality. One prediction: It’s likely that the first votes counted will be misleadingly good for Mr. Ossoff.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Ossoff Still Short of 50% Threshold to Avoid Runoff

April 17, 2017 at 9:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Clout Research poll in Georgia’s special election finds Jon Ossoff (D) remains the strong favorite ahead of the election, holding on to 41% of voter support.

Among Republicans, Bob Gray (R) now appears to be edging ahead of Karen Handel, 17% to 15%. Meanwhile, Judson Hill is pulling 10% support, while Dan Moody trails with 9%.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Warring Republicans Try to Unite Against Ossoff

April 17, 2017 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Fractious Georgia Republicans tried to unite behind a ‘stop Jon Ossoff’ movement ahead of Tuesday’s special election to represent a suburban Atlanta district, with party leaders urging voters to stream to the polls and prevent an upset victory by the Democrat,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Republicans face a daunting enthusiasm gap in the 18-candidate race to represent the 6th District, and the leading GOP contenders have spent the final days feuding with each other. Ossoff, one of five Democrats in the race, is leading in the polls – and aiming for an outright victory in Tuesday’s vote.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 14, 2017 at 12:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“They haven’t really ser­i­ously thought through the scen­ario of a mu­tu­ally-as­sured-de­struc­tion path for Re­pub­lic­ans. Then you clear the way for 51 per­cent for Os­soff.”

— Former Rep. Jack King­ston (R-GA), quoted by National Journal, on Republicans running in Georgia’s 6th congressional district.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6, Jon Ossoff

Ossoff Still Below 50% Threshold

April 13, 2017 at 9:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new RRH poll in Georgia’s 6th congressional district finds Jon Ossoff (D) in the lead in the special election with 39%, followed by Karen Handel (R) at 15%, Bob Gray (R) at 12%, Dan Moody (R) at 11%, and Judson Hill (R) at 10%.

If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff between the top two finishers.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

More Than $14 Million Spent on Georgia Ad Blitz

April 13, 2017 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Atlanta Journal Constitution: “Candidates and outside groups have spent nearly $14 million on an unending ad blitz in the race to replace Rep. Tom Price’s suburban Atlanta seat, and that tally that will surely grow in the final days before Tuesday’s nationally-watched vote.”

“An analysis of the advertising obtained by the AJC shows the biggest spender by far is Democrat Jon Ossoff, a former Congressional aide who is eyeing a historic upset in next week’s vote.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: GA-6

GOP Pours Money Into Montana Race

April 12, 2017 at 7:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republican leaders may have been caught off guard by the weakness of their candidate in the Kansas special election, but they won’t let it happen again in Montana, where another House election will be held May 25,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP leadership’s super PAC, will spend ‘at least $1 million’ on advertising and a paid get-out-the-vote effort… In addition, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s advertising arm is buying $148,000 in television airtime for a flight of campaign ads starting Friday… The GOP group is also spending $125,000 for digital ads starting Thursday.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: MT-AL

Republicans Should Be Really Worried About Last Night

April 12, 2017 at 8:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With help from President Trump and other high-profile Republicans, Ron Estes (R) held off a surprisingly strong challenge by newcomer James Thompson (D) to win a special election last night to fill the vacancy left by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.

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Filed Under: 2017 Campaign, Members Tagged With: KS-4

Quote of the Day

April 12, 2017 at 7:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“We just had to scare everyone out to vote.”

— Kansas GOP Chairman Kelly Arnold, quoted by BuzzFeed News, on yesterday’s special election.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: KS-4

GOP Wins Special Election In Kansas

April 11, 2017 at 10:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Estes (R) narrowly won the special election to fill the seat vacated by CIA director Mike Pompeo in a district that President Trump carried by 27 points, the New York Times reports.

“Republicans currently hold the House. Democrats would need to gain 24 seats by the 2018 midterm elections to retake it. There are four special elections for House seats this year for seats held by Republicans.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: KS-4

Democrats Lead in Race for Virginia Governor

April 11, 2017 at 1:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds both Democratic candidates lead likely Republican candidate Ed Gillespie (R) in the race governor.

Tom Perriello (D) tops Gillespie,  46% to 33%, while Ralph Northam (D) beats Gillespie 44% to 33%.

Key finding: President Trump’s approval rate is just 36%.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: VA-Gov

Why Republicans Are Panicking In Kansas

April 11, 2017 at 8:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

As voters head to the polls today for a special election in Kansas, an internal poll circulating among Republicans showed Ron Estes (R) up by only a single point as of last week, the Wichita Eagle reports.

First Read: “Estes should still be the favorite in this typically ruby-red district, but in a low-turnout election with a fired-up Democratic base and a demoralized Republican one, a close race or even a Thompson win is certainly possible. Even a single-digit loss for Democrats here would be a huge coup for the party, especially ahead of next week’s contest in in Georgia. One important note, though: The Republican enthusiasm gap in Kansas shouldn’t be interpreted as solely a Trump-related problem; GOP Gov. Sam Brownback’s dismal approval ratings in the state have been a significant factor weighing Estes down.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: KS-4

Trump Records Robocall for Kansas Special Election

April 10, 2017 at 6:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump has recorded a robocall in support of Kansas State Treasurer Ron Estes’ bid for the House seat vacated by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Axios reports.

“The special election is tomorrow, and it’s the first Congressional election since Trump took office. The Republican nerves are showing; Kansas’ 4th should be safe for the GOP — it’s home to Koch Industries and party mega-donor Charles Koch — but they’re still pulling in the big guns, including Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and now Trump.”

Said Trump: “Ron is going to be helping us, big league… I need Republicans like Ron Estes to help me get the job done.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: KS-4

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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