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What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Odds Are Against Bill Nelson In Florida Recount

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CNN: “Scott holds a little more than a 12,000 vote lead over Nelson. That amounts to an advantage of about 0.15 percentage points, which is well within the 0.25 point margin needed for a manual recount required by Florida law. This margin may seem small, but for recount purposes, it is actually quite large.”

“According to a FairVote database of statewide recounts from 2000 to 2015, the average recount moves the margin by 0.02 points. Nelson needs the margin to move by nearly eight times as much.”

Judge Gives Florida Voters Time to Fix Ballots

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“Florida’s historic recount was thrown once more into uncertainty Thursday when a federal judge ruled that at least 4,000 voters whose mail-in and provisional ballots were rejected because of issues with their signatures may be given two days to resolve the problem and have their votes counted,” the Washington Post reports.

“The decision by Judge Mark Walker of the U.S. District Court in Tallahassee came hours ahead of the Thursday afternoon deadline for elections officials to complete a machine recount… It was not clear how the judge’s decision would affect the timing of recount, which was expected to move to a manual canvass Friday in the too-close-to-call Senate race, in which Gov. Rick Scott (R) leads Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by fewer than 13,000 votes.”

McCarthy Blames Loss of House on ‘Historical Trends’

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“House Republicans immediately resumed a wartime posture Wednesday after electing its new leadership — vowing to aggressively resist Democrats’ agenda and work to recapture the House majority after being routed in last week’s elections,” Politico reports.

“In his first press conference after Republicans chose him to be House minority leader next year, Rep. Kevin McCarthy largely attributed the GOP wipeout to historical trends while also repeatedly blaming spending by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg as the cause of several Republican defeats in close contests.”

Judge Orders More Georgia Ballots Counted

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“A federal judge has ruled that Georgia counties must count absentee ballots even if the voter’s date of birth is incorrect or missing, and he is preventing the state from finalizing election results until that happens,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Although U.S. District Judge Steve Jones agreed with the Georgia Democratic Party and Stacey Abrams’ campaign on this issue, he ruled against them on two others. He will not require counties to accept absentee ballots with incorrect residence addresses or to accept provisional ballots cast by people who attempted to vote in a different county than where they are registered to vote.”

Mia Love Gains In Latest Vote Tally

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“Ben McAdams’ (D) lead over Rep. Mia Love (R) continued to slip away Wednesday after an updated vote count out of Salt Lake and Juab counties showed the incumbent congresswoman gaining crucial votes,” the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

“And with the heavily-Republican Utah County expected to update its count on Friday, McAdams precarious lead of 0.36 percentage points is likely to change, and could potentially erode away entirely.”

‘Public Hanging’ Joke Shakes Up Mississippi Runoff

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A backlash against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s (R) “public hanging” joke is shaking up the Senate runoff race in Mississippi, prompting Republican concerns about their chances of retaining the deep-red seat, The Hill reports.

Jackson Clarion Ledger: “A political action committee supporting U.S. Senate candidate Mike Espy has released a video online showing Espy’s opponent in the Nov. 27 Mississippi runoff race, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, superimposed into an old photo of a white crowd attending the lynching of two black men.”

Trump’s Rallies In Montana Apparently Backfired

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Wall Street Journal: “President Trump focused heavily on Montana this year, holding four rallies there since the summer. His visits, and the publicity they generated, likely are a central reason for high turnout. Vote tallies exceeded 2016 presidential levels in 15 of the state’s 56 counties.”

“But Mr. Trump appeared to have an effect on both parties. In 10 of the counties where vote tallies topped 2016 totals, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester received a similar or greater share of the vote than he did in his last election, and he won more than 50% of the vote statewide.”

MacArthur Loses His Seat

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Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) lost his seat to Democratic challenger Andy Kim, resulting in a near-wipeout for the GOP in the state, The Hill reports.

“With MacArthur’s loss, Democrats successfully flipped four Republican seats in New Jersey in the midterm elections this year, some of which had been held by the GOP for decades.”

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Young Rural Voters Abandoned Republicans

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Yair Ghitza of Catalist shares some really interesting data on who voted in last week’s midterm elections.

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Ranked-Choice Count Resumes In Maine

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“A federal judge said he will not decide until Thursday whether to intervene in the legal dispute over Maine’s 2nd congressional district race, setting the stage for a potential ranked-choice vote count on Wednesday,” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“That may give Secretary of State Matt Dunlap’s office time to determine the ranked-choice winner before any potential court order to stop the process.”

Denham Loses His House Seat

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Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA) has become the latest California Republican to lose his seat, Politico reports.

“The Associated Press on Tuesday night declared Josh Harder the winner in the race in California’s 10th District in the state’s Central Valley east of San Jose. Harder, a former venture capitalist, had a lead of approximately 4,900 votes when the race was called.”

Mimi Walters Now Trails In Vote Count

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“After clinging for a week to a slim lead in her run for reelection, Republican Rep. Mimi Walters fell 261 votes behind her Democratic challenger, Katie Porter, as Orange County’s latest ballot count Tuesday underscored the increasingly bleak fortune of the California GOP,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

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Trump Won Less Than Half of ‘His’ Races

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President Trump was on the campaign trail for several weeks ahead of last week’s midterm elections. While he appeared on stage with many candidates, he urged his supporters at rallies to vote as if he were on the ballot.

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Three Factors That Produced a Blue Wave

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John Harwood: “One week ago, three distinct but overlapping currents combined to shift tidal forces in America’s midterm elections — and smash the Republican Party’s congressional fortress.”

“Those currents were demographic change, Democratic mobilization and disaffection with President Trump. As is clearer now than on election night, they produced a blue wave that has fundamentally altered the political calculus of the capital.”

Mia Love Still Trails In Utah

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Ben McAdams (D) held his tenuous lead over Rep. Mia Love (R-UT), following the addition of roughly 40,000 votes to Utah County’s election totals, the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

“While only 7,666 of those ballots fell within the 4th congressional district — where McAdams is challenging the two-term Republican congresswoman — Monday’s release by Utah County is potentially decisive, as it includes the bulk of outstanding ballots in the conservative stronghold.”

GOP Lawmaker Files Suit to Stop Ranked-Choice Voting

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Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) “filed a federal lawsuit against Maine’s Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap in an attempt to stop a tabulation of ranked-choice ballots in his race against challenger Jared Golden (D),” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“Neither Poliquin nor Golden secured a majority of the vote in the first round of counting, pushing the tabulation to voters’ second choices in an attempt to determine which candidate has the support of more than 50 percent of voters.”

“Poliquin’s suit claims the use of ranked-choice voting violates the U.S. Constitution because the document ‘sets a plurality vote as the qualification for election’ to Congress.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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