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What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Trump Tore Down the GOP’s Redistricting Wall

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“For years, some Democrats said gerrymandering was an insurmountable roadblock to the House majority that couldn’t be cleared until after the 2020 census. Then along came President Trump,” Politico reports.

“House Democrats steamrolled Republicans in an array of districts last week, from those drawn by independent commissions or courts, to seats crafted specifically by Republicans with the intention of keeping them in the GOP column.”

“The overriding factor: a Republican president who political mapmakers could not have foreseen at the beginning of the decade. Trump altered the two parties’ coalitions in ways that specifically undermined conventional wisdom about the House map, bringing more rural voters into the GOP tent while driving away college-educated voters.”

So Much for All Politics Being Local

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Ron Brownstein: “The results of last week’s election demonstrated how powerfully national trends now shape election outcomes in every region. The election produced remarkably consistent divides along demographic and geographic lines in states as diverse as Arizona, Georgia and Texas on one side, and Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on the other. Though some important regional differences remained, voters who shared the same characteristics or resided in similar places largely voted the same way no matter what state they lived in.”

“In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In almost all cases, the outcome in each state was determined less by how much they varied from that persistent pattern than by how much of each group was present in the state’s electorate to begin with.”

Hyde-Smith Won’t Answer About ‘Public Hanging’

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Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) was peppered with questions about her “public hanging” comments caught on tape over the weekend, but each time she refused to answer, referring reporters back to her prepared statement, the Jackson Free Press reports.

Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) defended Hyde-Smith by trying to change the subject and implying that black women are participating in “the genocide of 20 million African American children” through legal abortions.

The video of the news conference is worth watching.

Georgia Officials Ordered to Count Provisional Ballots

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“A federal judge on Monday ordered election officials to review thousands of provisional ballots that haven’t been counted in Georgia’s close election for governor,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“The court decision comes as votes are still being counted in the race for governor between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp. Abrams trails Kemp and would need to gain more than 20,000 additional votes to force a runoff election.”

McSally Concedes Arizona Senate Race

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Martha McSally (R), who was locked in a too-close-to-call race with Kyrsten Sinema (D), called her opponent and conceded Monday after Sinema’s lead widened, the Arizona Republic reports.

“The concession marked the end of a heated neck-and-neck battle between McSally and Sinema over who would fill the seat Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) decided not to defend.”

Georgia Officials Ordered to Count All Absentee Votes

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Georgia Secretary of State Robyn Crittenden told county election officials to count absentee ballots even if they lack a voter’s date of birth, as long as the voter’s identity can be verified, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

Brian Kemp (R) holds the lead over Stacey Abrams (D) in the race to become Georgia’s governor. Abrams would need to gain more than 20,000 votes to force the race into a runoff.

Ranked-Choice Voting Gets Test In Maine

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Associated Press: “The four-way political battle won’t conclude until a computer algorithm has the final say this week on whether Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin wins re-election or is ousted by Democratic state lawmaker Jared Golden.”

“Under the system, a candidate wins with a majority of first-place votes. If there’s no majority, the last-place candidate’s second-place votes are reallocated to remaining candidates. The computerized process can be repeated until there’s a winner. Across the country, voting reform advocates are watching as the system faces its biggest test in the most expensive race in Maine history.”

Will the Florida Recounts Change Anything?

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Tampa Bay Times: “According to an analysis by the nonpartisan group FairVote, which advocates for electoral reforms that make it easier to vote, out of 4,687 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2016, just 26 went to a recount.”

“Of those 26, just three recounts wound up changing the initial result of the race: The 2004 Washington governor’s race, the 2006 Vermont state auditor’s race and the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate race. The average swing in those three elections after the recounts? About 311 votes. … Essentially, Nelson — and to a greater extent, Gillum — would need a systematic error to be discovered during their recounts if their results are to be reversed.”

GOP Candidate Distracted Trying to Prove He Wasn’t Racist

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Seth Grossman (R) told the Newark Star Ledger that he could have won his congressional race against Jeff Van Drew (D) last week.

Said Grossman: “There’s no doubt in my mind that if I did not have unnecessary distractions thrown into my path I would have won yesterday’s election as a pro-Trump candidate because this is a pro-Trump district.”

He added: “I was distracted trying to prove I’m not a racist.”

Hogan’s Win In Maryland Did Not Improve GOP Prospects

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Washington Post: “Party leaders have largely rationalized Larry Hogan’s (R) resounding victory over former NAACP chief Ben Jealous as an anomaly.”

“Hogan sought to flip enough legislative seats to break the super­majority Democrats have held in both chambers for nearly 50 years. Instead, he faces a Senate with more left-of-center Democrats and a House of Delegates with an even larger supermajority — Democrats picked up at least five seats in that chamber.”

Defeated GOP Lawmaker Blames McCain for Loss of House

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Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN), who was unseated in last week’s election, writes in the Wall Street Journal that former Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is to blame for the GOP’s loss of the House majority since it was McCain’s decisive vote against legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare that led to so many Democratic midterm victories.

Lewis writes that the failed Senate vote allowed Democrats to campaign against Republicans with the claim that the GOP wanted to remove protections for those with pre-existing conditions.

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The Danger In Drawing Conclusions Too Early

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Many Democrats had 2016 flashbacks on Election Night last Tuesday when they thought a completely winnable election might slip out of their grasp.

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Trump Calls for Halting Florida Recount

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President Trump “called for halting the just-launched recounts in the Florida races for Senate and governor, alleging without evidence that many ballots were missing and forged and that a valid tally was no longer possible,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Trump: “The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!”

Florida Recount Can’t Be Done by Deadline

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“The election overseer for a critical county in Florida confirmed to CNN on Sunday what observers in both parties had begun to predict: There is no way Palm Beach County’s machine recount will be finished by the Thursday deadline.”

“The prediction came as a rare point of agreement between Democrats and Republicans in the state, who have engaged in a tense fight since Tuesday’s election brought tight margins in statewide races.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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