FiveThirtyEight: “Notably, the four states where the greatest number of voting-restriction bills have been filed — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania — were some of the closest states in last year’s presidential election. They also all voted for President Biden — the first time Georgia and Arizona voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in over two decades — and have Republican-controlled legislatures, making them especially fertile ground for new voting restrictions.”
Strongest House Candidates Were (Mostly) Moderate
Nathaniel Rakich: “Moderate politicians are becoming an endangered species. The most liberal Republican in Congress nowadays is still ideologically to the right of the most conservative Democrat, reflecting the fact that the median voters in each party are drifting further and further apart as well.”
“But if winning elections were the only consideration, the parties likely wouldn’t be so eager to purge themselves of centrist members. It’s not an ironclad rule, but there is a lot of evidence that moderate candidates tend to perform better at the ballot box. And though the relationship may be growing weaker with time, an examination of split-ticket voting in the 2020 election suggests it’s still there.”
Why My Latino Dad Went for Trump
Eric Garcia: “Democrats can certainly make inroads with Latino men — though my dad, as you can see, won’t be one of them. Instead, he’s a very stark reminder that Latinos span the political spectrum — and that, as confusing as it may be to progressives and to many pundits, it’s absolutely possible for some percentage of Americans to think of themselves as archconservatives and as Latinos.”
Democrats Sound Alarm at Overturning House Race
“The prospect of a floor vote to overturn a contested congressional race in Iowa has suddenly become a real dilemma for House Democrats’ most vulnerable members,” Politico reports.
“A handful of nervous Democrats have spoken up publicly as the House Administration Committee reviews the case. But behind the scenes, more moderates are voicing concern about the dynamics of possibly unseating a GOP lawmaker — particularly after they hammered Republicans for trying to do just that to President Joe Biden, which led to a deadly insurrection in the U.S. Capitol.”
Competitive State Legislative Races Gave Biden Boost
Washington Post: “Conducted in partnership with two Democratic analytics firms – Kinetic21 and BlueLabs – Run for Something analyzed 3,953 precincts within 61 counties in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, North Carolina, New York, Ohio and Texas. The study compared precincts where a Republican was running on the ballot for state House or Senate uncontested with places where both Republicans and Democrats were running.
“The study found that even if the Democrat didn’t win, having a contested state legislative race provided anywhere from a .3 percent to 1.5 percent boost for Biden.”
Intelligence Was Clear Russia Tried to Help Trump
New York Times: “A report released Tuesday made clear that the intelligence community believed that Russia had long attacked Mr. Biden for the benefit of Mr. Trump. But throughout 2020, senior officials bowed to Mr. Trump’s hostility toward any public emphasis of the threat from Russia, and they offered Congress and the public incomplete or misleading portraits of the intelligence on foreign influence in the election.”
Dark Money Helped Democrats In 2020
Open Secrets: “After years of dark money overwhelmingly boosting Republicans, this marks the first presidential election cycle where dark money benefited Democrats. That’s a continuation from the 2018 midterm elections when Democrats benefited from more dark money than their Republican counterparts at the federal level for the first time since Citizens United.”
Key takeaway: Democrats and their aligned causes took in and spent $514 million in dark money, while Republicans took in and spent $204 million.
Russia Tried to Help Trump In Election
U.S. intelligence report says Russia attempted to interfere in 2020 election with goal of “denigrating” Biden and helping Trump, CNN reports.
“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its declassified report on foreign threats to 2020 US elections Tuesday, which concludes that foreign adversaries — including Russia — did attempt to interfere.”
Josh Harder Knows How to Survive
Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA) “pulled off an upset to defeat a Republican in the 2018 election, but in 2020 he did something more impressive: He won again,” the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
“Harder was one of only a handful of swing-seat Democrats to survive last year’s elections, which ended with a sharply reduced House majority for the party.”
“Harder, 34, and those who know him credit his success to focusing on issues that matter to his district and efforts at bipartisanship. Democrats hope he can serve as a model for their candidates in next year’s midterms, which historically are rough for the president’s party.”
Audio of Trump Call Had Been Deleted
“Officials in the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office located a recently released recording of former President Donald Trump’s call to a state investigator in a trash folder on her device,” CNN reports.
“The discovery of the call comes after state officials originally told CNN that they did not think audio of the call existed.”
Trump Pressured Georgia Official to Find Fraud
“Then-President Donald Trump urged the chief investigator of the Georgia Secretary of State’s office to look for fraud during an audit of mail-in ballots in a suburban Atlanta county, on a phone call he made to her in late December,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
During the six-minute call, Trump repeatedly said that he won Georgia: “Something bad happened.”
The Washington Post reported on the call in January, but this is the first time the recording has been released.
Donations Surge for Those Who Tried to Overturn Election
Reuters: “Right after the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, dozens of U.S. companies announced they would halt political donations to the 147 Republican lawmakers who voted to overturn Donald Trump’s presidential election loss. Two months later, there is little sign that the corporate revolt has done any real damage to Republican fundraising.”
“If anything, the biggest backers of Trump’s false election-fraud narrative – such as Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene – have been rewarded with a flood of grassroots donations, more than offsetting the loss of corporate money.”
Justices Reject Final Trump Bid to Nullify Election
The Supreme Court on Monday denied a bid by former President Trump to nullify his electoral loss in Wisconsin, rejecting the former president’s final pending appeal over the results of the 2020 election, The Hill reports.
How Republicans Misunderstand the 2020 Turnout Story
Harry Enten: “Numerous Republican state legislatures are trying to pass new voter restriction legislation (e.g. limiting absentee and early voting). Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are trying to pass laws that expand access to the ballot box.”
“The moves from both camps come after an election with record turnout in which there were multiple false charges of fraud by prominent Republicans like former President Donald Trump.”
“But we should be clear: high turnout had little to do with why Trump ended up being a one-term president. Trump lost because he was an unusually unpopular president, and he likely would have been defeated if turnout looked like it did in 2016.”
Mail Voting Didn’t Swing Election for Biden
Wall Street Journal: “The presidential-election results left the impression that mail-in voting increased turnout and propelled President Biden to victory. But the reality is that voting by mail didn’t do either, Stanford researchers say in a new paper based on the latest data. That finding is notable because mail-in voting has become a controversial topic as many state legislatures debate restricting its use in future elections.”
ABC News: Mail-in voting emerges as main target in renewed voting-rights battle.
Grand Jury to Probe Trump Efforts to Overturn Election
“A grand jury is expected to be seated this week in Fulton County, Georgia, to look into efforts by Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 election, signaling that the county’s investigation into the former president is intensifying,” ABC News reports.
“Prosecutors are expected pursue subpoenas for documents and witnesses and rely heavily on them.”
How Trump Flipped Hillary Voters In 2020
David Shor tells New York Magazine how Republicans were able to make gains with non-white voters in 2020:
“What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.”
He adds: “Roughly one in ten Hispanic voters switched their vote from Clinton to Trump.”
Cuomo Angered Biden’s Campaign with Convention Speech
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) angered Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020 over his speech at the Democratic National Convention, “which aides considered to be self-aggrandizing,” The Hill reports.
According to Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency, Cuomo “did not deliver his recording of his speech until the day he was set to appear and used much of his remarks to tout his response to the coronavirus pandemic rather than praise Biden.”
Said one Biden aide: “They put his speech on our doorstep, lit it on fire, rang the doorbell, and then ran away.”
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