Dan Balz: “The authors ran a series of simulations for elections between 2020 and 2036, using different assumptions about the shape of the electorate, while also trying to estimate how tweaks or shifts in levels of support for Republican or Democratic candidates would affect the popular vote in the states and, therefore, the electoral college and the national totals.”

“One conclusion is that the country should be braced for repeats of what has happened twice in the past five presidential campaigns — a popular-vote outcome different from the electoral college result. ‘This report finds quite a few future scenarios could mimic the result of the 2016 election — a Democratic in the popular vote with a Republican win in the electoral college,’ the authors write.”

“Potential 2020 presidential candidate Jason Kander is hiring an Iowa-based communications director as his national organization staffs up,” Politico reports.

“Kander, the former Missouri secretary of state and failed 2016 Senate candidate who has become an unlikely national Democratic figure, is bringing on Jason Noble, who on Friday announced he was leaving his job as political reporter for the Des Moines Register.”

Josh Barro: “Amazon doesn’t release statistics on Prime membership, but the investment research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners uses a consumer survey to estimate that 90 million American adults have access to an Amazon Prime membership… So, the Amazon Prime user demographic is already substantially larger than the ‘Trump voter’ demographic — and while Trump’s support base appears stagnant at best, Cowen believes Amazon continues to add new Prime members at a double-digit annual percentage rate.”

“So, Trump will likely be seeking reelection in 2020 at a time when nearly half the 240 million adults in the US are users of Amazon Prime.”

“Does he really want to have a fight over whether Amazon should have to pay higher prices for shipping — which, in turn, would likely mean a higher Prime membership fee, or maybe even an end to free two-day shipping?”

A new CNN poll finds that 54% of Americans think that President Trump will lose his re-election bid in 2020, the exact same number who said Barack Obama would lose the 2012 election at this point in his first term.

Only 40% of Americans think Trump will win in 2020, similar to the 44% who said the same for Obama.

Stu Rothenberg: “Republican strategists from both the populist and establishment wings of the party agree that losing the House in November would not necessarily be a terrible thing for Trump’s 2020 re-election bid.”

“While control of that chamber would give Democrats a platform from which to investigate the president, his family and the entire administration, it would also give Trump something he desperately needs: a very visible enemy.”

“Trump supporters see House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi as an ideal adversary — a far-left, San Francisco elitist with poll numbers as bad as or worse than the president’s.”

Ron Browstein: “Every time Donald Trump breaks a window, congressional Republicans obediently sweep up the glass.”

“That’s become one of the most predictable patterns of his turbulent presidency—and a defining dynamic of the approaching midterm elections. Each time they overtly defend his behavior, or implicitly excuse him by failing to object, they bind themselves to him more tightly.”

“With all of this, the GOP leadership is sending an unmistakable signal to voters antagonistic or ambivalent about Trump: So long as Republicans hold the congressional majority, they will not act to meaningfully constrain, or even oversee, the president. That choice represents an epic gamble for November—and beyond.”

“At least a dozen possible Democratic presidential candidates have begun bolstering their teams by adding aides with campaign experience to their Senate staffs, personal offices or 2018 reelection payrolls,” Politico reports.

“The hires are never explicitly advertised or designed to be about 2020. But the behind-the-scenes shuffle is a long-overdue stage in the traditional precampaign scramble. Potential candidates who have run before — like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden — largely have their core teams in place.”

“Yet in many other cases, chiefs of staff and senior strategists are now actively looking for new talent after receiving clear instructions from their bosses: I don’t know whether I’m going to run for president, but do everything you need to do to get me in position, just in case.”