“The main campaign arm for House Democrats raised $56.5 million from July through the end of September,” CBS News reports.
“Their sum means the committee has raised more than their Republican counterparts in that same period, as the party that holds control of the House faces massive super PAC spending and historical headwinds going into November’s midterm elections.”
A new Emerson College/The Hill poll in Ohio finds J.D. Vance (R) edging Tim Ryan (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45% with 9% still undecided.
Maine congressional candidate Ed Thelander (R) compared federal rules aimed at protecting the endangered right whale to sex crimes against children, the HuffPost reports.
Fourteen members of Nevada U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt’s (R) family announced that they would collectively endorse his opponent, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the Nevada Independent reports.
New York Times: “The race is tight, with most of the latest polls showing Mr. Laxalt up by a sliver. Without mentioning him by name, Mr. Laxalt’s family members argued that Ms. Cortez Masto would serve Nevada far better than their relative, who has emerged in recent years as a die-hard Trump loyalist eager to push the former president’s stolen-election lies.”
“In the homestretch of Arizona’s high-stakes contest for governor, Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has refused to debate her Republican opponent, MAGA firebrand Kari Lake, while also maintaining a low-key campaign schedule and facing being outspent on the airwaves in the closing weeks of the race,” NBC News reports.
“As Lake barnstorms the state, some supporters, including Democrats and anti-Lake Republicans — a key constituency Hobbs needs to win over in a state where voter registrations are essentially split into thirds among Democrats, Republicans and independents — have expressed concern.”
Norm Ornstein: “If there is one timeworn cliché about elections, it is that the next one is the most significant in our lifetime. There is reason to believe it is true this time. Although the outcomes remain uncertain, one thing is clear: If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, the country will face a series of fundamental challenges much greater than we have had in any modern period of divided government, including a direct and palpable threat of default and government shutdown.”
“The Republican majority will be more radical, reckless, and willing to employ nuclear options to achieve its goals than any of its predecessors have been, and its leadership, starting with McCarthy, will be either compliant or too weak to head off catastrophe.”
A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a wider margin in the U.S. Senate race than a month ago.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R) now leads challenger Mandela Barnes (D), 52% to 46%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Tony Evers (D) barely edges challenger Tim Michels (R), 47% to 46%.
“Peter Thiel has told the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund he is willing to make a multimillion-dollar investment in the Arizona race on the condition the super PAC finds matching funds,” Axios reports.
“With less than a month until the midterms, a late cash injection of this scale could prove decisive in one of 2022’s key Senate battlegrounds. McConnell’s team has said they are open to the idea but haven’t yet raised the funds.”
Amy Walter: “In the Cook Political Report vernacular, the classification of ‘Toss Up’ is used to refer to races that are the most competitive of the cycle, and which either party stands a reasonable chance of winning. Even so, races that share the same ratings designation have many important distinctions from one another; in one state/CD, for example, the political demographics may benefit one party, while in another, the candidate/campaign quality favors a different party. As such, it’s easy to go down the list and assume that these races break somewhat evenly on Election Day.”
“In reality, however, the closest races in each election tend to break disproportionately toward one party. In looking back over the last twelve cycles, the races rated as Toss Ups in the House and Senate have split anywhere from 54 percent to 100 percent toward one party.”
“However, the most competitive House and Senate races don’t always break toward the same party in a given year.”
“An apparent falsehood perpetuated by Republican congressional candidate Jennifer-Ruth Green has incited a mob of her social media supporters to subject Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) his wife, Jane, and their children to vile insults and implied threats to their safety,” the Northwest Indiana Times reports.
A new AARP poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) leading challenger Don Bolduc (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 45%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) leads challenger Tom Sherman (D), 55% to 41%.
A Milwaukee Journal Sentinel editorial calls Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) “the worst Wisconsin political representative since the infamous Sen. Joseph McCarthy.”
Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who announced this week she was leaving the Democratic party, is headed to New Hampshire to campaign for U.S. Senate candidate Don Bolduc (R), Politico reports.
“Nearly 50 longtime Idaho Republicans, including a former governor and dozens of other past and current officeholders, on Tuesday endorsed the Democratic candidate for attorney general in November’s election,” the AP reports.
A new Quinnipiac poll finds the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia remains essentially unchanged with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 52% to 45%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) edges challenger Stacey Abrams (D), 50% to 49%.
“Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of the most prominent Republican critics of former President Donald Trump in Congress, is rolling out a bipartisan series of midterm endorsements, including a handful of Democrats seeking to become their states’ top election officials,” Politico reports.
“Kinzinger endorsed four Democratic secretary of state candidates: incumbents Steve Simon of Minnesota and Jocelyn Benson of Michigan, along with Arizona’s Adrian Fontes and Nevada’s Cisco Aguilar, both of whom are running for open seats. Kinzinger’s endorsements also include Democrat Josh Shapiro’s campaign for governor of Pennsylvania, where he would appoint the secretary of state if he wins.”
Michigan Advance: “It’s a situation unprecedented in Michigan political history: A candidate for statewide office is running under the possibility of being indicted by the very office that he’s seeking, with a vow to indict the current officeholder if he wins.”
“The fact that the office in question also happens to be for attorney general, the chief law enforcement officer of the state, only underscores the extraordinary nature of the contest.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.