Stuart Rothenberg picks Herschel Walker: “He is as bad a candidate as I have ever seen.”
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
What Herschel Walker Needs to Win
New York Times: “Democratic modelers believe that Mr. Warnock goes into Election Day with about an eight-percentage-point lead. If so, they say, Republicans would have to turn out in force and capture about 60 percent of the votes cast on Tuesday for Mr. Walker to pull out a victory.”
What to watch: “More bad news for Mr. Walker: The forecast is for rain on Tuesday, especially in heavily Republican North Georgia.”
“A highly motivated electorate would not let a cold, muddy day keep them from the polls, but Georgians are showing signs of fatigue.”
Atlanta Journal Constitution: Election Day for Warnock and Walker finally arrives.
Election Day in Georgia
Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. in the Senate runoff between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and challenger Herschel Walker (R) in Georgia.
NBC News: “The GOP cavalry never really showed up for Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff — or if it did, it was with far fewer horses than we saw in November’s general election.”
Herschel Walker’s Closing Message
Herschel Walker (R) is bashing pronouns as he ends his U.S. Senate campaign.
Said Walker: “Why are they bringing pronouns in our military? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. I’m sick and tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t y’all sick and tired of that pronoun stuff?”
He added that he wants our military “to be at war fighting.”
Another Bonus Quote of the Day
“I want you to vote like democracy depends on it. Vote like healthcare depends on it. Vote like a woman’s right to choose depends on it, because it does. You ought to vote like it’s an emergency.”
— Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), quoted by The Hill, the day before the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia.
Warnock Leads Heading Into Runoff
A new UMass Lowell poll in Georgia finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 51% to 46%.
Raphael Warnock Now Favored in Georgia Runoff
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Georgia’s Senate runoff moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on the eve of tomorrow’s election.
Herschel Walker (R) needs a big Election Day showing to overcome what should be a decent-sized lead for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the early vote.
Arizona Certifies Midterm Election Results
“Arizona officials certified the state’s vote canvass on Monday, officially declaring winners in the high-profile gubernatorial and Senate races, among other contests, as GOP figures vow to fight the election results in court,” The Hill reports.
Ex-Girlfriend Says Herschel Walker Tried to Punch Her
Cheryl Parsa told NBC News how Herschel Walker (R), who has been accused by several girlfriends and his ex-wife of mistreating them, grabbed her throat and threw a punch at her when she found him with another woman at his apartment in Dallas.
Said Parsa: “He had his hand on my throat, my chest, and then he leaned back to throw a punch. And luckily, I was able to avoid that. And the punch landed on the wall instead of me.”
Raphael Warnock Heads Into Runoff with Momentum
Politico: “Both parties are expecting a close outcome on Tuesday in the closely divided state. After a November election that defied expectations in countless races around the country, a Walker victory is not out of the question.”
“But from Warnock’s first-place finish in the first round of voting to scattered polling and temperature checks of Democratic and GOP operatives, Warnock heads into Election Day as at least a slight favorite to win a full six-year term.”
Washington Post: Warnock, Walker make final pitches in Georgia Senate runoff.
Atlanta Journal Constitution: The 5 biggest questions of the Senate runoff.
If Raphael Warnock Wins
Playbook: “Georgia is a bona fide purple state. Biden’s Georgia win was the breakthrough Peach State Democrats had been heralding for years, and the twin victories in the subsequent Senate runoffs only cemented that claim.”
“But states typically transform over multiple election cycles, and a Warnock victory Tuesday would confirm Georgia’s trajectory as the state’s demographic picture only gets more favorable for Democrats. Could we be looking at Virginia circa 2008?”
Key takeaway: “There’s a blueprint for flipping red states. Democratic organizers in conservative states have pleaded for years for more national investment, and if Warnock pulls it out, they believe they will have irrefutable proof of concept.”
If Herschel Walker Wins
Playbook: “Trump gets a much-needed boost. Speaking of the embattled former president, nothing could undermine the growing sense that Trump is a loser for Republicans than a come-from-behind win by his hand-picked candidate. It would make it that much harder to push the former president and current presidential candidate to the sidelines.”
“Brian Kemp is a political juggernaut. Moving to the runoff, Walker lost the chance to argue that the Senate majority is at stake. But he gained an active and effective surrogate in Gov. Brian Kemp, who kept his distance from Walker during his race against Abrams. Kemp appeared at multiple rallies and cut a direct-to-camera endorsement ad, and it’s hard to see Walker pulling it out without Kemp vouching for him to skeptical suburbanites.”
Obama’s Jokes Hurt Herschel Walker’s Feelings
Georgia U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) seemed genuinely offended in a Fox News interview that Barack Obama joked about Walker’s comparison between wearwolves and vampires.
Said Walker: “Well, what’s sad is they’re always trying to mislead people. That’s the same as you listening to… Obama talking about I’m talking about vampires and werewolves… Why don’t they tell the whole story?”
Quote of the Day
“They’re not because they know right now that the House will be even so they don’t want to understand what is happening right now. You get the House, you get the committees. You get all the committees even, they just stall things within there. So if we keep a check on Joe Biden, we just going to keep a check on him.”
— Georgia U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R), in an interview with Politico, arguing he hasn’t seen any lack of enthusiasm from voters.
Herschel Walker Denies Hiding from Voters
“Herschel Walker defended his campaign strategy less than four days before the Georgia Senate runoff and denied that he has been avoiding questions from voters and mainstream news organizations,” Politico reports.
Said Walker: “I’ve never been hiding.”
Raphael Warnock Would Give Democrats More Power
Playbook: “As predicted, some Republicans who dislike Walker no longer feel that voting for him is as existential anymore. Both Biden and Trump have decided to stay away, reducing the national circus-like nature of the race. And polls show a consistent Warnock lead: Of seven surveys released since early November, five showed a Warnock lead, one had the race tied, and one showed a 1-point Walker lead.”
“But the outcome will still have major implications. A 51-49 Senate means that committees will no longer have even memberships, making Chuck Schumer’s ’s attempts to get legislation and nominations to the floor easier. And the balance of power in the Democratic caucus will shift slightly to the left, denying Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) the extraordinary control he exercised in 2021 and 2022.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Some people don’t want some people to vote.”
— Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), quoted by Politico, pushing his supporters to vote early.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s McConnell Money Tickle
Teddy Schleifer: “I find it very hard to believe that SBF’s giving to Republicans matched his donations to Democrats—he was the second-largest disclosed donor to Democrats in the 2020 cycle at $40 million—and sources close to SBF don’t think this is true, either. In fact, an SBF adviser told a source of mine that the recent claim from SBF was flatly untrue. More likely, SBF was speaking loosely and hyperbolically, as he is prone to do.”
“But it is true that in the sprint, SBF’s aides at FTX and on his personal donor-advisory team began moving major money to G.O.P.-aligned groups, generally to entities affiliated with Republican leadership, I’m told. Some of that money was through disclosed vehicles, like McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund. But some of it was not.”
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