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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Big GOP Names Stay Away from Georgia

December 2, 2022 · 11:54 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For weeks during the general election, Herschel Walker was joined on the campaign trail by top Republican senators, party leaders and conservative activists eager to help the former football star’s Senate bid in Georgia. Now, with certain exceptions, he’s often been the only draw at his events.”

“The shift reflects fresh doubts at the top of the Republican Party, where disappointing midterm election results last month have triggered an identity crisis among conservatives reeling from losses in a third consecutive campaign cycle.”

Washington Post: “Republicans have grown increasingly nervous about the final U.S. Senate election of the midterms, a runoff in Georgia that reflects larger concerns over candidate quality, infighting and ties to Donald Trump that loom over the party’s future.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

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A Very Good Cycle for Incumbents

December 2, 2022 · 2:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Just for members: The latest edition of Inside Elections.

This issue looks at how few incumbents lost re-election across all of the competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests, examines how and where GOP Senate candidates underperformed, and unveils Inside Elections updated Baseline numbers, which measure the partisan performance in each state.

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2022 Campaign, Inside Elections, Members

Heavy Turnout on Last Day of Early Voting in Georgia

December 2, 2022 · 1:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Election officials on Friday reported heavy turnout in Georgia on the last day of early voting ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff election that will determine whether Democrats can add to their razor-thin majority in the U.S. Senate,” Reuters reports.

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Biden Aids Raphael Warnock from Afar

December 2, 2022 · 11:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Days before polls close on Tuesday, Biden still has no plans to visit Georgia. Instead he’ll aim to help Sen. Raphael Warnock’s reelection campaign from afar with appearances Friday at a Boston phone bank and fundraiser.”

“They mark the culmination of Biden’s support-from-a-distance strategy that he employed throughout the midterms and that his aides credit with helping his party beat expectations in key races.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Judge Orders Arizona County to Certify Election

December 2, 2022 · 10:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A rural Arizona county certified its midterm election results on Thursday, following the orders of a judge who ruled that Republican supervisors broke the law when they refused to sign off on the vote count by this week’s deadline,” the AP reports.

2022 Campaign

A Pinky on the Scale for Raphael Warnock

December 2, 2022 · 10:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Limited polling during the runoff has continued to show a margin of error contest, but has Warnock still leading considerably among independents. The race is close enough that we are still keeping it in our Toss Up column, and we don’t think a possible Warnock victory is probable enough to shift it to Lean Democrat.”

“But we might put a pinky on the scale for the Democratic incumbent, whose victory would cap off an astounding turn for Senate Democrats despite economic headwinds and history going against them. It would once again underscore that Republicans clearly have a candidate quality problem – and likely will until the party turns away from Trump.”

Aaron Blake: Herschel Walker is a very bad candidate. Could he still win? 

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Obama Roasts Herschel Walker

December 2, 2022 · 10:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

Barack Obama got big laughs at his rally in Georgia last night:

Said Obama: “Since the last time I was here, Mr. Walker has been talking about issues that are of great importance to the people of Georgia. Like whether it’s better to be a vampire or a werewolf. This is a debate that I must confess I once had myself. When I was 7. Then I grew up.” 

He added: “In case you’re wondering, by the way, Mr. Walker decided he wanted to be a werewolf, which is great. As far as I’m concerned. He can be anything he wants to be except for a United States senator.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Herschel Walker’s Campaign Desperately Pleads for Cash

December 2, 2022 · 9:41 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Outgunned financially as Democrats dominate early voting, Herschel Walker’s Georgia Senate campaign Thursday begged donors to pony up more money because of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s growing sense of momentum,” NBC News reports.

Said Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise, in a memo: “Simply put, we’re being outspent 3 to 1 by Warnock, and we’re being outspent nearly 2 to 1 by outside groups. We need help.”

“The memo calculates that Warnock and the Democratic groups backing him have spent and committed a combined $92 million since the November election, compared with $45 million that Walker and his Republican allies have ponied up.”

USA Today: Super PACs spending $16M more on Raphael Warnock than Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff.

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Raphael Warnock Holds Lead in Senate Runoff

December 2, 2022 · 8:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new CNN poll in Georgia finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) in the Senate runoff, 52% to 48%.

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Obama Stumps for Raphael Warnock

December 2, 2022 · 6:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “The former president spoke to a boisterous crowd of several thousand people ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, which will determine whether Warnock or his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, go to Washington.”

Said Obama: “I’m here to tell you, we can’t let up. I’m here to tell you, we can’t tune out. We can’t get complacent. We have to run through the tape, And I know you can do it because you did it before.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Raphael Warnock Holds Edge in Senate Runoff

December 1, 2022 · 11:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) in the Senate runoff, 50% to 47%, with 3% still undecided.

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Candidates Mattered More This Cycle

December 1, 2022 · 4:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “For decades, House races have become more parliamentary, with individual candidate quality and ideological fit taking a backseat to party labels and the prevailing national winds. In 2020, there were just 16 seats that split their tickets between president and House, a faint shadow of the 83 in 2008.”

“But this cycle rolled back the clock: candidates and campaigns mattered, a lot. Back in September, we created an ideological scorecard to classify GOP House nominees as either ‘traditional,’ more governing-oriented Republicans or more confrontational Trump enthusiasts/endorsees and those would fit in with the hard-line Freedom Caucus. In the end, independent voters proved open to the first group. But, ‘MAGA’ true believers badly bombed.”

2022 Campaign

Raphael Warnock Has the Edge in Georgia Runoff

December 1, 2022 · 10:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Inside Elections has a rating change for the Georgia U.S. Senate runoff.

“Inside Elections has rated this race a Toss-up for the entirety of the cycle. It was close on Nov. 8 and the finale is likely to be close as well. But it’s hard to see how Warnock and Walker each have the same chance of winning. Not only did the senator outpace Walker narrowly a month ago (and win two years ago), but Democrats are outspending Republicans down the stretch, Warnock’s image is better than Walker’s, Democrats have been hitting their early turnout goals, and Republicans lost the potency of a core message when control of the Senate was decided by other races. We’re changing our rating to Tilt Democratic.”

“A rating change toward Warnock should not be equated to a guaranteed win for the Democrat, nor does it indicate Walker cannot win. There’s just more evidence pointing to a Warnock victory, even amidst the uncertainty of turnout in an oddly-timed election. Continuing with a Toss-up rating would be the easiest handicapping decision, but it also wouldn’t accurately reflect the dynamic of the race.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

The New Crossover Districts

December 1, 2022 · 10:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump.”

“There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats.”

“Democrats used to win more crossover districts, but Republicans have now won more in 6 of the last 7 elections as the overall number of crossover districts has generally declined.”

2022 Campaign

Election Denial Could Cost Republicans a House Seat

December 1, 2022 · 9:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A rural Arizona county’s refusal to certify the results of the November election could cost Republicans a seat in the US House of Representatives, where they hold a narrow seven-seat majority,” Bloomberg reports.

“If the county refuses to certify by Dec. 8, the ballots of more than 47,000 county residents will not be included in the final tally. That would flip the results of the race for Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District, where Republican Juan Ciscomani holds a 5,232-vote lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel in unofficial results.”

This would be a truly remarkable own goal for Republicans.
Taegan

2022 Campaign AZ-6

Quote of the Day

December 1, 2022 · 9:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I wish somebody would say, ‘You know what? Arrest me then. I don’t care.’ We need people with courage to say, ‘class what felony? Go ahead, go for it, arrest me.’ Because this is a botched election.”

— Failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R), on Steve Bannon’s podcast.

2022 Campaign AZ-Gov

Ex-Girlfriend Says Herschel Walker Attacked Her

December 1, 2022 · 9:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A former longtime girlfriend of Republican senatorial candidate Herschel Walker has come forward to detail a violent episode with the football star, who she believes is ‘unstable’ and has ‘little to no control’ over his mental state when he is not in treatment,” the Daily Beast reports.

Said Cheryl Parsa: “He’s a pathological liar. Absolutely. But it’s more than that. He knows how to manipulate his disease, in order to manipulate people, while at times being simultaneously completely out of control.”

She added that when she was with Walker, he used his diagnosis as an “alibi” to “justify lying, cheating, and ultimately destroying families.”

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

Headline of the Day

December 1, 2022 · 7:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Herschel Walker, facing new controversy, insists, ‘I’m a resident of Georgia’”

— Fox News, just six days from the Georgia Senate runoff.

2022 Campaign GA-Sen

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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