Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.”

“Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.”

“We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.”

Important takeaway: “If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.”

The Cook Political Report unveiled its ratings for 2026 Senate races, finding Republicans with a clear edge even though they are defending more seats than Democrats overall.

“Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries quietly met with more than 150 Silicon Valley-based donors last week in California — an early step in Democrats’ efforts to repair relationships with a once-deep blue constituency,” Politico reports.

Cook Political Report: “While President Donald Trump moves at breakneck speed to reshape the federal government, crack down on illegal immigration and impose tariffs, Democrats remain in recovery mode. They’re divided over how to respond to a chaotic start to the new administration and what their own agenda should look like, and polls show that a majority of voters have an unfavorable view of the party writ-large.”

“But they have one obvious bright spot: Republicans have an incredibly tenuous hold on the House, and Democrats will only need to pick up three seats to secure a majority in 2026. If history repeats itself, voters will be looking for an opportunity to put a check on the party in power next November.”

At the outset, there are 213 races that at least Lean Republican, 204 that at least lean Democrat and there are 18 Toss Ups.