Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
“The establishment Democratic Party is a failed enterprise… It is so hard to lose two general elections to Donald Trump. In political terms, to imagine a worse failure than losing two national elections to Donald Trump.”
— Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), quoted by The Lever.
“A group of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates is heading to Denver days after the midterms to discuss the party’s future, in one of the party’s first major gatherings following the election,” CNN reports.
“Attendees will include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, as well as Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan… The group of speakers also includes Govs. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, plus several additional members of Congress.”
“What we do is that we break open the entire political calculus in America — period. Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere.”
— Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), quoted by the New York Times.
“If Kamala Harris runs for president again, she would begin with advantages no rival could match: near-universal name recognition, experience in the White House and the hard-earned lessons of already having carried the party’s banner,” the Washington Post reports.
”For many Democrats, that still may not be enough.”
”With roughly a dozen Democrats maneuvering toward possible 2028 bids, Harris retains considerable affection and respect inside the party. But interviews with 18 strategists, donors, former Harris surrogates and other Democrats — including some who backed her in 2024 — revealed persistent uncertainty about whether her moment was cut short or her time has passed, and whether she can lead Democrats back to power.”
“Democrats’ House campaign arm is expanding its targets even further into Trump country, as the party grows increasingly bullish they will not just win, but win big next month,” Politico reports.
”The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added six more candidates to its coveted ‘Red to Blue’ list on Monday, districts President Donald Trump won by an average of 16 points or more in 2024.”
“Democrats are eager to probe President Donald Trump’s business ties if they retake Congress, but those plans are already exposing an intraparty fault line over how hard to go after companies that courted the White House over the past two years,” Politico reports.
”California Reps. Robert Garcia, who could lead the House Oversight Committee, and Maxine Waters, who is poised to retake the House Financial Services gavel, would have broad subpoena powers over companies with ties to Trump and his family. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a potential Senate Banking chair, has already pressed major corporations over their contributions to Trump-linked causes.”
“But some Democrats are cautioning that the party shouldn’t use investigative authority too broadly against corporate America to avoid steering into retribution. The divide is setting up tension over how Democrats should treat some of the largest and most powerful American companies, from technology giants like Meta and Amazon to cryptocurrency leaders like Coinbase and Ripple, if they return to power next year.”
“Democratic House members are writing bills to rein in a president’s emergency powers. Lawyers are strategizing about how to insulate the Justice Department from presidential influence. A House measure would block a president from unilaterally remodeling the White House. Ethicists are writing rules to prevent a future first family from self-dealing,” the Washington Post reports.
”Throughout Washington and beyond, President Donald Trump’s opponents are scrambling to ensure that after he leaves office, the changes he has imposed on the presidency, and the country, will fade with him.”
“For America’s two major political parties, Nov. 3 is shaping up to be an Election Day of mutual distrust. The proof is in the deluge of litigation already filed in courthouses around the country,” the New York Times reports.
“The Trump administration is heading into the midterms fixated on the unfounded claim that voter registration by noncitizens is a widespread problem. The Democrats, noting that President Trump tried to overturn his 2020 election loss — and that he recently encouraged his followers to ‘cheat like hell’ in the midterms — are bracing for what they say will be an onslaught of Republican tactics, from the intimidation of voters to the potential seizure of ballots.”
“The specific contours of these anxieties are evident in the scores of election-related lawsuits filed by the two parties and their allies. They are concerned with matters as granular as the proper way to seal a ballot envelope in North Carolina, and as sweeping as the role of the federal government in an election system that is, per the Constitution, administered by the states.”
“House Democrats’ campaign arm announced Friday that it added eight additional districts to the party’s ‘Districts in Play’ list, expanding the battleground map deep into Republican territory as the party grows increasingly confident that November’s elections could bring upset wins,” the Washington Post reports.
New York Magazine: The biggest sign yet that Democrats will flip the House.
New York Times: “Dr. El-Sayed narrowly won a bruising primary over the summer against Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat. But along the way, he alienated Jewish voters with his criticism of Israel. He lost older Black voters to Ms. Stevens. And he drove off independents with his left-wing policy views.”
“Now, he is working to mend fences and convince the party’s wary establishment that he is capable of winning a general election. It’s something of an about-face for a candidate whose earlier political identity — he ran for governor in 2018 as a left-wing agitator, and was a vocal surrogate for Senator Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential election — was combative outsider.”
The Economist: “On the night of the midterm elections in 2018, Nancy Pelosi, preparing to reclaim her position as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said Democrats’ victory was about two things: restoring Congress as a check to Donald Trump, then in his first term, and stopping ‘assaults’ on health care.”
“The year before, Republicans had attempted to repeal Barack Obama’s signature health-care law, the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Democrats jumped on the issue; one analysis found that it was the most common topic of their ads in the months before the election.”
Playbook: “A new polling memo from Navigator Research being circulated to senior Hill leadership offices this morning is arguing Democrats’ affordability agenda is popular with over 70% of voters they polled, including 55% of MAGA Republicans. And the memo lays out one of Dems’ biggest hurdles: themselves.”
From the memo: “Of those who oppose this agenda, skepticism stems from distrust over whether the agenda can become reality – a quarter (25%) say they do not trust Democrats to deliver and a fifth (20%) say they don’t have enough information.”
The Guardian: What Democrats are getting right – and wrong – in run-up to midterms.
“If she suspected someone was going to start a fight with her as a child, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota sometimes struck first. As a tiny girl, she figured the element of surprise was an advantage,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“That willingness to go on the offensive has been a hallmark of her political career. When a man sprayed Omar with apple-cider vinegar from a syringe at a town-hall meeting here earlier this year, her first instinct wasn’t to cower, but to chase him with raised fists. In an interview, Omar said it isn’t in her nature to back down.”
“The lawmaker has been a forerunner for a faction of Democrats pulling the party leftward. That, along with her combativeness, has helped make her a top target for attacks from President Trump and conservatives, as well as GOP investigations. A massive welfare-fraud scandal in Minnesota—heavily tied to her fellow Somali immigrants—has only added fuel to the fire.”
“Democrats are adopting a drastically more negative tone toward their own party in the 2026 midterm elections, swapping promises of bipartisan collaboration with vows to ‘take on corruption in both parties,'” Axios reports.
“This surge in political friendly fire reflects the extraordinary level of anger candidates are seeing from their voters toward the Democratic Party and the national political establishment.”
“In the two battleground states with the most bitter and complicated Senate primaries, Maine and Michigan, Democrats emerged feeling stronger and more unified,” according to new polls from The New York Times and Siena University.
“More than 60 percent of Democrats or independents who said they lean toward the Democratic Party in each state said they thought the primary process strengthened the party through vigorous debate. Only about one-quarter said they thought the process exposed divisions and made Democrats weaker.”
“Beyond the primary battles, the polls hinted at signs of unity emerging around the party’s direction and ideology among Democratic voters nationally and in the battleground states.”
“D.C. Democrats are growing increasingly alarmed about the Republican spending advantage in the Michigan Senate race — and some are asking when progressive groups will start putting serious money behind Abdul El-Sayed,” Axios reports.
“The Democratic establishment’s main super PAC is pouring an additional $10 million into the race to back El-Sayed, even as the Democratic nominee has declined to say whether he would support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as leader next year.”
“Pretty candidly, I think about my identity. I’m not naïve to the fact that we are living under a very regressive administration, and I happen to be a woman, and I, you know, happen to be Latina. And I think that there’s a lot of conversation about electability, and I don’t kind of shy away from those realities.”
— Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), quoted by CNN, on running for president.
Reuters: “The groundswell building against data centers during election season has given Democratic candidates a new opening in the rural U.S. Midwest, where they have struggled to compete during Donald Trump’s presidency.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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