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Iran’s Leaders Emboldened by Oil Shock

March 13, 2026 · 6:29 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Iran is demanding that the airstrikes stop before it entertains cease-fire discussions and wants firm guarantees that it won’t be attacked again if it agrees to stop the fight, Arab diplomats said. It also wants reparations for damages and is hoping to get U.S. forces to disengage from the region.”

“The demands are part of a broader public expression of confidence—whether real or feigned—in recent days.”

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Oil Prices Hold Above $100

March 13, 2026 · 5:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Stock futures inched lower early Friday and oil prices held above $100, despite U.S. efforts to boost global supplies by allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude already at sea,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“There are about 124 million barrels of Russian oil at sea, according to industry executives, roughly equivalent to five or six days of the supply usually expected to flow out of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Washington Post: Trump administration allows for Russian oil sales as energy prices soar.

CNBC: Oil holds above $100 as Trump says America “has ammunition and plenty of time” to fight Iran war.

Energy

China Could Emerge a Winner from Trump’s Energy Shock

March 13, 2026 · 5:48 am ET · Leave a Comment

“As the threat of strikes by Iran forces oil tankers destined for Asia to idle in the Persian Gulf, some top Republicans have declared an economic victory against a rival super power,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “This is China’s nightmare.”

“But the disruption caused by the war on Iran may reveal a different story about China: that years spent preparing for a global energy crisis have left the country and its economy better positioned than most to endure a long-term hike in the cost of oil and gas.”

“Through massive stockpiles of crude oil, an aggressive push into electric vehicles and huge investments into coal, renewable power and battery storage, Beijing has worked to insulate its economy from future oil shortages that once would have been crippling.”

Energy

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Officials Underestimated War’s Impact on Strait of Hormuz

March 12, 2026 · 8:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning the ongoing operation,” CNN reports.

“President Donald Trump’s national security team failed to fully account for the potential consequences of what some officials have described as a worst-case scenario now facing the administration.”

“Trump’s preference of leaning on a tight circle of close advisers in his national security decision making had the effect of sidelining interagency debate over the potential economic fallout if Iran were to respond to U.S.-Israeli strikes by closing the strait.”

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Russia Rakes In an Extra $150 Million a Day

March 12, 2026 · 8:12 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Russia is earning as much as $150 million a day in extra budget revenues from its oil sales, making it the biggest winner from the conflict in the Middle East,” the Financial Times reports.

Energy

Iran Says Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel

March 12, 2026 · 8:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as its forces hit merchant ships and the International Energy Agency recommended a massive release of strategic reserves to dampen one of the ​worst oil shocks since the 1970s,” Reuters reports.

Energy

Trump and Iran Strike Defiant Tone

March 12, 2026 · 1:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader both struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the war, offering little relief to energy markets as Brent crude briefly topped $100 barrel despite fresh US efforts to curb oil prices,” Bloomberg reports.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that oil will hit $140 a barrel if the Straights of Hormuz remains closed until April.

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Trump’s New Spin on Spiking Oil Prices

March 12, 2026 · 9:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump on Truth Social: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” 

“High gas prices are good” is quite a midterm election message.
Taegan

Energy

Energy Secretary Says U.S. Not Ready to Escort Tankers

March 12, 2026 · 8:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary, said Thursday that it was “quite likely the case” that the U.S. Navy could begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the month, the New York Times reports.

Said Wright: “It’ll happen relatively soon, but it cant happen now. We’re simply not ready.”

Energy

Oil Prices Surged Even After Release of Strategic Reserves

March 12, 2026 · 7:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Oil futures have again topped $100 a barrel — the latest surge after days of wild price swings in the market since the United States and Israel first struck Iran. But this uptick came after the International Energy Agency on Wednesday announced that more than 30 countries would release a record amount of oil from their emergency reserves.”

“Instead of reassuring jittery markets, the news seemed to further spook traders by underscoring how far the world is from reopening trade in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway and vital trading route that separates Middle Eastern oil producers from their customers. This concern was further reinforced when three ships were attacked in the channel on Wednesday.”

Energy

Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure

March 12, 2026 · 5:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck three cargo ships attempting to transit the waterway, the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. It warned that any other vessels trying to move through the strait also would be targeted.”

“Later on Wednesday night, in an incident far from the strait, two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were ablaze in Iraqi waters after being hit by projectiles.”

Axios: Iranian oil squeeze tests Trump’s war plans.

Energy

Oil Tops $100 a Barrel

March 12, 2026 · 5:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The global price of oil rose above $100 a barrel on Thursday, even after a group of more than 30 countries pledged to tap their reserves to stabilize markets,” the New York Times reports.

“The spike reflected fears that the growing war in the Middle East could cripple a major part of the world’s oil and gas supply for an extended period.”

CNBC: “Strategists said oil prices were trading higher because there appears to be no end in sight to oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Axios: Trump faces limited gas-price options on Iran.

Energy

How Trump Miscalculated Iran’s Response to War

March 12, 2026 · 5:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “On Feb. 18, as President Trump weighed whether to launch military attacks on Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.”

“Even during the Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright said, there had been little disruption in the markets. ‘Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,’ he said. Some of Mr. Trump’s other advisers shared similar views in private, dismissing warnings that — the second time around — Iran might wage economic warfare by closing shipping lanes carrying roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.”

“The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf.”

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Iran Is Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War

March 11, 2026 · 7:20 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Iran Tries to Choke Off Oil Traffic

March 11, 2026 · 5:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Three commercial ships were struck around the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as Iran stepped up its efforts to halt traffic through the critical oil conduit,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The U.S. military has turned down requests to escort tankers or other civilian ships through the strait, with defense officials saying it won’t do so until the threat of Iranian fire has eased.”

Energy

Trump Will Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve

March 11, 2026 · 4:37 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump announced he’ll tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cut energy costs as the Iran war disrupts the oil industry, CNBC reports.

Said Trump: “I filled it up once, and I’ll fill it up again, but right now, we’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down.” 

Energy

Oil Prices Climb Again

March 11, 2026 · 8:09 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Oil prices forged higher as concern over disruption to energy flows in the Middle East outweighed hopes that governments will agree to a record release of oil reserves,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Energy

White House Isn’t Panicking About Oil Prices

March 11, 2026 · 6:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration believes it can withstand a brief spike in oil prices — for as many as four weeks, as one person close to the White House suggested — before the political hit does lasting damage,” Politico reports.

“Administration officials’ confidence was bolstered Tuesday when oil dropped to $80 per barrel, down from $120 this weekend, reinforcing their view that the spikes are temporary and manageable.”

Energy

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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