Wall Street Journal: “Oil climbed back above $100 a barrel as the challenges of diffusing the conflict in the Middle East set in for global investors.”
Trump Hunts for Ways to Blunt Gas Price Hikes
Bloomberg: “Among the myriad ideas floated to the administration for consideration are asking Congress to suspend the federal gas tax; releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve once the current release is finished and fast-tracking drilling permits… A White House official said while there are many options on the table, the administration at this time isn’t pursuing a gas tax holiday or an additional SPR release.”
“One Trump ally acknowledged a lot of this was ‘gimmicky’ but said the White House has to show it’s taking action before the midterms, which inevitably will turn on the economy.”
Trump Pays $1 Billion to Cancel Wind Projects
NOTUS: “The Trump administration is paying nearly $1 billion to get a French energy company to cancel two planned offshore wind projects.”
“The Interior Department said TotalEnergies will invest the same amount of money it is receiving from Interior into oil production and liquefied natural gas facilities in Texas.”
Worse Than the 1970s Oil Shocks
“Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s executive director, has said the energy crisis is ‘very severe’ and that the global economy is ‘facing a major, major threat,’” CNN reports.
“The situation, he said, is worse than the two consecutive oil crises in 1973 and 1979, in which the world lost about 10 million barrels of oil per day, and the gas market crash following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
$5 Diesel Is Crushing Truckers
Wall Street Journal: “The average gallon of diesel crossed $5.20 nationwide on Saturday, up around 40% from a month ago, according to the AAA. Eight of the 10 states where diesel prices have shot up most compared with a month ago are in the Southeast…”
“Higher diesel prices for a sustained period would, however, ripple throughout the broader supply chain and could lead companies to eventually increase the price of consumer goods.”
Even Best-Case Scenario for Energy Markets Is Disastrous
The Economist: “Even if Iran accedes to Donald Trump’s threat on March 21st to unblock the strait within 48 hours or face strikes on its power plants — a big ‘if’ — global oil and gas markets would remain undersupplied for months, hurting the world economy.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“In essence, we are jujitsuing the Iranians. We are using their own oil against them.”
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, explaining the Trump administration’s war strategy to Fox News.
Gas Prices Have Soared Under Trump
“President Donald Trump has long touted low gas prices as an improvement of his administration compared to former President Joe Biden’s administration,” USA Today reports.
“Now, as of March 20, the average price of a gallon of regular gas is higher than it has been since October 2022, according to AAA. At $3.912, AAA shows the price of gas has risen more than $1 per gallon since the beginning of February.”
Why Energy Is Such a Potent Target in the Iran War
“At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began bombarding Iran… Some have been struck by drones. Several have been hit more than once,” the New York Times reports.
“As the attacks escalate, both sides increasingly view energy as a potent target — one that is capable of inflicting severe economic pain. Iran depends on oil and natural gas to keep the lights on and its government running, while the United States wants to prevent prices from soaring further and damaging the underpinnings of the global order.”
“The question is no longer just when Iran’s tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical passage on its southern coast, will ease enough for most ships to pass. It is also how long it will take to complete repairs needed to produce and process oil and natural gas in the first place.”
High Gas Prices Loom Over the Midterms
“As they entered this midterm year, many Democratic and Republican politicians agreed on one central campaign theme. This would be an election about affordability, with both parties battling over who best addressed the high costs of housing, child care, groceries, health care, utilities and gas,” the New York Times reports.
“But President Trump’s decision to attack Iran has complicated the equation, and left Republicans pushing a different message: Please ignore the price at the pump.”
“From Congress to the campaign trail, Republican leaders, elected officials and candidates are promising that the increase in energy prices will be temporary, asking voters to bear short-term pain to their pocketbooks for what they promise will be long-term gains for their country.”
Rising Gas Prices Hit Household Finances
“Rising gasoline prices are already starting to bite U.S. household finances and Americans overwhelmingly expect fuel costs will keep climbing as President Donald Trump’s war with Iran crimps global oil supplies,” a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“Some 55% of respondents in the Tuesday-through-Thursday poll said their household finances had taken at least ‘somewhat’ of a hit from the increases in gas prices.”
Quote of the Day
“I think right now at least just kind of keeping a stiff upper lip. Maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks and so that gas goes a little further.”
— Minnesota U.S. Senate candidate Michele Tafoya (R), quoted by NewsNation, on rising gas prices.
Trump Is Getting Drilled, Baby, Drilled
Andrew Egger: “Trump is right to be worried. And he’s right in particular to be completely freaked out by the possibility of more attacks from either side on the region’s energy infrastructure. Putting LNG and oil production facilities on the legitimate-targets list would mean heavy long-term damage to the energy economy.”
“Trump knows how little buy-in the American public has for this war even on its own merits, and how little pain people will be willing to suffer on its behalf. For him, the single most important thing he needs to accomplish in this conflict is a crisp end date—preferably very soon.”
“Pretty much his worst-case scenario would be higher energy prices for the rest of his term because the Middle East’s energy infrastructure had been reduced to rubble.”
Trump Mulls Risky Kharg Island Takeover
Axios: “The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
“President Trump can’t end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran’s chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.”
Israel Will Avoid Attacks on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
Bloomberg: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said Israel would avoid future attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, after a pair of strikes on key Middle East gas operations sent energy prices soaring.”
Oil Prices Could Stay High Through Next Year
“Oil prices edged lower on Friday after a tumultuous day that saw the international benchmark surge above $119 a barrel as the Middle East conflict deepened energy supply fears,” CNN reports.
“But analysts warned prices would stay elevated, with energy infrastructure damaged, and vital oil and gas shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.”
“Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027.”
New York Times: “Gas prices rose again on Friday, with the national average at $3.91 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. The increase has raised the cost for drivers almost 31 percent since the war began.”
Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil
Wall Street Journal: “Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon—and they don’t like what they are seeing.”
“The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf’s biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April.”
Iran Ramps Up Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
Associated Press: “Iran intensified its attacks on oil and natural gas facilities around the Gulf on Thursday, raising the stakes in a war that is sending shock waves through the global economy.”
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