The signs are piling up that Donald Trump is slipping into lame-duck territory even before the year is out.

Democrats are winning races they have no business winning under normal political conditions. The latest example came this week in Miami, where voters elected a Democratic mayor for the first time in three decades. 

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

Donald Trump injects himself into a mega media deal as Republicans lose control of the House.

President Trump traveled to Pennsylvania last night for what was billed as a speech on affordability.

But like most of his speeches, he quickly soon veered into something very different — “the weave” he calls it. 

Just for members: The latest Inside Elections.

This issue — the largest ever — includes a House overview with updated analysis in more than 120 seats around the country and rating changes in 16 races.

Speaker Mike Johnson is having trouble keeping his caucus together — and so is Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump isn’t making it easy for Republicans weighing whether they should run for re-election or spend more time with their families. 

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

Can Mike Johnson last longer than a head of lettuce?

For most of this year, Democrats have been notching surprisingly strong results in special elections across the country.

It’s easy to get lost in the partisan storylines — energized Democratic voters, sagging GOP turnout, and the ongoing chaos inside the Republican Party.

Republicans managed to hang on in Tennessee’s 7th district last night. But you wouldn’t know it from the mood inside the party this morning.

The margin — a staggering 13-point swing toward Democrats — is setting off alarms for a simple reason: thirty-five House Republicans won their seats in 2024 by smaller margins than that.

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) publicly blasted Speaker Mike Johnson (R-NY) for blocking a provision she wants included in the annual defense authorization bill.

The dispute has now exploded into a rare, open feud within GOP leadership.

For all of Donald Trump’s talk about a turnaround, the economy still doesn’t feel any better to most Americans.

Prices aren’t snapping back, paychecks aren’t stretching further, and there’s little reason to believe voters will feel meaningfully richer by this time next year.

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

Could House Republicans lose their majority before the midterms?

The Department of Government Efficiency — the once-hyped pet project Donald Trump launched with Elon Musk at the start of his second term — has quietly ceased to exist.

A new report over the weekend flatly concludes that the government-slashing agency “doesn’t exist” anymore.