The government shutdown is once again dominating headlines, with Democrats and Republicans locked in a familiar fight to assign blame.

But as dramatic as the standoff appears, history suggests it’s unlikely to matter much when voters cast their ballots next year.

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

The Pam Bondi hearings were a train wreck, the government is still shut down, and no one trusts anything.

Just for members: The latest edition of Inside Elections.

This issue includes a deep dive into two of the most important House races in the country.

The first case study I ever read in graduate school was from Graham Allison’s Essence of Decision — the classic examination of how real-world government decisions are made.

Allison’s insight was deceptively simple but profound: what we call “decisions” are rarely the product of one rational mind. They emerge from bureaucracies, organizational routines, and power struggles that limit what information leaders even see.

Texas National Guard troops crossed into Illinois last night — against the explicit wishes of Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) — in what amounts to a state-on-state confrontation unprecedented in modern America.

President Trump this morning also called for both Democrats to be jailed.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) officially entered the Republican Senate primary in Texas, complicating what has for months looked like a two-man battle between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

But Hunt’s entry threatens to split the vote, making it harder for either Cornyn or Paxton to reach 50% and avoid a runoff.

This government shutdown is unlike previous ones in that both parties seemingly think they have the political advantage. 

When both sides believe they’re winning, neither side rushes to compromise.

One of the worst mistakes a politician can make is to come across as smug — dismissing or disrespecting voters.

The conventional wisdom holds that Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” line in 2016 and Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” remark in 2012 were fatal missteps.

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

So how does this end?

President Trump is weaponizing the government shutdown.

Billions in federal funds bound for Democratic-led states are being withheld, and officials are preparing plans to lay off large numbers of civil servants.