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2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

September 24, 2024 at 5:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”

“Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

How the Last 8 Years Made Young Women More Liberal

September 15, 2024 at 9:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Then, around 2016, something shifted, a new analysis shows. Women ages 18 to 29 became significantly more liberal than the previous generation of young women. Today, around 40 percent identify as liberal, compared with just 19 percent who say they’re conservative. The views of young men — who are more likely to be conservative than liberal — have changed little.”

“It’s unusual for shifts in political ideology to be so pronounced, political scientists say. Young women are much more liberal than women 30 and up, according to the analysis by the pollster Gallup, which analyzed the answers to 54 questions about political beliefs that it has asked over time.”

Filed Under: Trends

Young Women Are Becoming More Liberal

September 12, 2024 at 8:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Young women’s stances on several other issues — including the death penalty, healthcare policy, labor unions, taxes, government regulation and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — have become moderately more liberal, while their views on defense spending and a few others show little change.”

“Young men have also moved closer to the liberal positions on most issues, just not as markedly as young women have.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

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Americans Want Companies to Stay Out of Politics

August 13, 2024 at 6:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Fewer Americans want companies to take a public stand on current events and public policy,” new results from a Gallup-Bentley University study reveal.

“By taking a stance on political candidates, companies risk taking a hit to their bottom lines.”

“Just 38% think businesses in general should take a public stance on current events, according to the survey of 5,835 U.S. adults fielded from late April to early May.”

Filed Under: Trends

Happy Warriors

August 7, 2024 at 10:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Now trending on the political dictionary: “happy warrior.”

Filed Under: Trends

Divorced Men for Trump

July 12, 2024 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daniel Cox: “Since at least the 1990s, married Americans—both men and women—have voted more consistently for Republican candidates than single Americans have. In 2024, we found that 48 percent of married voters were supporting Trump compared to 34 percent who had never been married, a 14-point gap.”

“There is another gap that caught my attention recently.”

“Fifty-six percent of men who are divorced said they are voting for Trump, compared to 42 percent of divorced women. The voting divide between men and women is larger among the formerly married than any other group. Married men and women report supporting Trump at remarkably similar rates (50 percent vs. 45 percent). Single men are somewhat more likely to vote for Trump than single women…”

“The divorce divide in American politics is something new.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

Views of American Greatness

July 4, 2024 at 11:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Philip Bump: “Democrats are more proud of the U.S. Republicans are more likely to view it as the greatest country on Earth.”

Filed Under: Trends

American Pride Remains Near Record Low

July 3, 2024 at 4:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Gallup poll finds just 41% of Americans say they are “extremely proud” to be American, the fifth consecutive year this reading has been in the 38% to 43% range.

Filed Under: Trends

Majority Thinks U.S. Is Becoming Less Patriotic

July 2, 2024 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marist poll finds 52% of Americans think people in the United States are less patriotic than they were a few years ago, 32% believe they are about as patriotic as they were while 14% believe those in the U.S. are more patriotic.

Filed Under: Trends

‘Too Many Old People’

June 24, 2024 at 10:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “There is a deepening sense of fear as population loss accelerates in rural America. The decline of small-town life is expected to be a looming topic in the presidential election.”

Filed Under: Trends

Young Voters Despair Over Politics

May 29, 2024 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born,” according to new polling from Democratic firm Blueprint obtained by Semafor.

“The sour mood points to potential trouble for Joe Biden, who is struggling with Gen Z and younger Millennials in polls compared with 2020, and needs to convince them he can be relied on to improve their lives.”

Key findings: “49% agreed to some extent that elections in the country don’t represent people like them; 51% agreed to some extent that the political system in the US ‘doesn’t work for people like me;’ and 64% backed the statement that ‘America is in decline.’”

“A whopping 65% agreed either strongly or somewhat that ‘nearly all politicians are corrupt, and make money from their political power’ — only 7% disagreed.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington

May 19, 2024 at 1:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Leonhardt: “A defining quality of the new centrism is how much it differs from the centrism that guided Washington in the roughly quarter-century after the end of the Cold War, starting in the 1990s. That centrism — alternately called the Washington Consensus or neoliberalism — was based on the idea that market economics had triumphed.”

“The new centrism … is a recognition that neoliberalism failed to deliver.”

Filed Under: Trends

How Fear and Menace Are Transforming Politics

May 19, 2024 at 7:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “This was just a typical month in American public life, where a steady undercurrent of violence and physical risk has become a new normal. From City Hall to Congress, public officials increasingly describe threats and harassment as a routine part of their jobs. Often masked by online anonymity and propelled by extreme political views, the barrage of menace has changed how public officials do their work, terrified their families and driven some from public life altogether.”

“By almost all measures, the evidence of the trend is striking. Last year, more than 450 federal judges were targeted with threats, a roughly 150 percent increase from 2019, according to the United States Marshals Service. The U.S. Capitol Police investigated more than 8,000 threats to members of Congress last year, up more than 50 percent from 2018. The agency recently added three full-time prosecutors to handle the volume.”

Filed Under: Trends

Is the Sun Slowly Setting on U.S. Power?

April 28, 2024 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Ignatius: “The United States might be stumbling toward a decline from which few great powers have ever recovered. It has many of the tools of national recovery but doesn’t yet have a shared recognition of the problem and how to fix it.”

“That’s not a quote from a MAGA or progressive leaflet. It’s a summary of a startling new study by Rand that was commissioned by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. It should serve as a loud wake-up call for America in this crucial election year.”

Filed Under: Trends

U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low

April 25, 2024 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from a year earlier, federal data released Thursday showed. It is the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s.”

“The decline reflects a continuing trend as American women navigate economic and social challenges that have prompted some to forgo or delay having children. A confluence of factors are at play. American women are having fewer children, later in life. Women are establishing fulfilling careers and have more access to contraception.”

“At the same time, young people are also more uncertain about their futures and spending more of their income on homeownership, student debt and child care. Some women who wait to have children might have fewer than they would have otherwise for reasons including declining fertility.”

Filed Under: Trends

Nothing Works Right Anymore

April 10, 2024 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Damon Linker: “The examples are almost too numerous to list: a disastrous war in Iraq; a ruinous financial crisis followed by a decade of anemic growth when most of the new wealth went to those who were already well off; a shambolic response to the deadliest pandemic in a century; a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan; rising prices and interest rates; skyrocketing levels of public and private debt; surging rates of homelessness and the spread of tent encampments in American cities; undocumented migrants streaming over the southern border; spiking rates of gun violence, mental illness, depression, addiction, suicide, chronic illness and obesity, coupled with a decline in life expectancy.”

“That’s an awful lot of failure over the past 20-odd years. Yet for the most part, the people who run our institutions have done very little to acknowledge or take responsibility for any of it, let alone undertake reforms that aim to fix what’s broken.”

Filed Under: Trends

America’s Reality Distortion Machine

April 9, 2024 at 10:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Axios: “Here’s a wild thought experiment: What if we’ve been deceived into thinking we’re more divided, more dysfunctional and more defeated than we actually are?”

“Well, there’s compelling evidence we’ve been trapped in a reality distortion bubble — social media, cable TV and tribal political wars — long enough to warp our view of the reality around us.”

“Yes, deep divisions exist on some topics. But on almost every topic of monthly outrage, it’s a fringe view — or example — amplified by the loudest voices on social media and politicians driving it.”

Filed Under: Media Buzz, Trends

Americans Still Hold Shared Values Despite Divisions

April 3, 2024 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Despite the country’s deep political polarization, most Americans share many core beliefs about what it means to be an American, according to a new poll,” the AP reports.

“The poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults say the right to vote, the right to equal protection under the law and the right to privacy are extremely important or very important to the United States’ identity as a nation. The survey also found that 84% feel the same way about the freedom of religion.”

Filed Under: Trends

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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