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Why Politics Is So Insanely Complicated in 2025

June 28, 2025 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ed Kilgore: “Every major news story in the past week had one thing in common: none of it was remotely simple or easy to explain. The basic facts surrounding the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities were obscured by walls of secrecy and spin. The New York mayoral primary was hard to predict thanks to the city’s complex ranked choice voting system and the byzantine alliances and rivalries it spawned. And above all, the domestic governance of the country continued to be snarled in arcane judicial, congressional, and executive branch procedures.”

“Systemic chaos and confusion have been the reigning leifmotif of the second Trump presidency. If your grasp of the way government is supposed to work is based on Schoolhouse Rock or social studies lessons on ‘how a bill becomes law,’ the last five months or so must have been baffling to you. It’s not an accident, either: Donald Trump’s ways of doing business make the normal business practices of the public sector all but impossible.”

Filed Under: Trends, Trump Legacy

The Slow, Painful Death of the American Political Dynasty

June 26, 2025 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “In one important way, Cuomo’s defeat in Tuesday’s mayoral primary was not an only-in-New York story. For all the local flavors and personal peculiarities of the former governor’s downfall, it also fits into a larger national story — the extinction of some of the country’s mightiest political dynasties.”

“This is an age of angry populism and political disruption; breakneck social and technological change; and broad, deep frustration with the economic status quo. Family names that voters once found comforting now seem to have other connotations — complacency, insularity, privilege, obsolescence.”

Filed Under: Trends

The Myth of the Gen Z Wave

June 21, 2025 at 1:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “The best available evidence suggests that the youth-vote shift in 2024 was more a one-off event than an ideological realignment.”

Filed Under: Trends

Gen Z’s Stunning Partisan Split

June 21, 2025 at 7:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“America’s youngest voters are far likelier to vote Republican than their older siblings,” Axios reports.

“Generation Z may be better understood as two distinct sub-generations — divided, in large part, by how they experienced the shock of Covid-19.”

“Stunning stat: The latest iteration of the Yale Youth Poll found extraordinary 18-point partisan gap between younger and older members of Generation Z. When asked whether they’d pick a Democratic or Republican candidate in the midterm elections, voters age 22–29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points, while those age 18–21 favored Republicans by 11.7 points.”

This is a truly extraordinary finding.

Filed Under: Trends

The Revolt Against Expertise

May 24, 2025 at 11:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New Yorker: “It used to be progressives who distrusted the experts. What happened?”

Filed Under: Trends

Americans Now Support Unions by Record-High Margin

May 22, 2025 at 10:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The popularity of labor unions surged over the past decade, while American sentiment toward big business has fallen,” Axios reports.

“The approval switcheroo helps explain, in part, why the Republican Party has been courting labor unions in recent years.”

Filed Under: Trends

It’s Getting Harder to Categorize Voters

May 21, 2025 at 12:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sarah Longwell: “Having conducted hundreds of focus groups since 2018, I’ve become well-acquainted with the complex varietals of the American voter. Our rapidly shifting information landscape and cultural incohesion makes them harder to categorize for tidy political-science purposes.”

“I personally find terms like ‘far-left’ and ‘far-right’ or even the word ‘conservative’ to be increasingly meaningless. And there are a fair number of things that used to be axiomatic about politics that no longer are.”

“But one axiom of politics remains true: In the end, it comes down to how people feel about their futures and well-being.”

Filed Under: Trends

Which Bubble Are You In?

May 20, 2025 at 5:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This is fun: The New Class Bubble Quiz.

It’s only 10 questions. It will tell you whether you’re culturally elite or non-elite, and whether you’re economically elite or non-elite.

Filed Under: Trends

Chart of the Day

April 25, 2025 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Filed Under: Trends

U.S. Fertility Rate Remains Near Record Low

April 23, 2025 at 3:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “More than 3.6 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2024—a less than 1% advance from the year prior… The total fertility rate was around 1.63 births per woman in 2024, slightly higher than a record-low rate recorded in 2023 but far below the rate needed for a generation to replace itself.”

Filed Under: Trends

Young Americans Navigate Financial Hardship

April 23, 2025 at 12:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Harvard Youth Poll finds more than 4 in 10 young Americans under 30 say they’re “barely getting by” financially, while just 16% report doing well or very well.

Fewer than half feel a sense of community, with only 17% reporting deep social connection.

Filed Under: Trends

Big Majority Say Country Is on the Wrong Track

April 22, 2025 at 8:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Annenberg Center poll finds a majority of Americans (60%) think the country is going in the wrong direction and a smaller majority (54%) think a year from now the economy will be worse than it is today.

Filed Under: Trends

Big Majority Don’t Want to Rename Gulf of Mexico

February 12, 2025 at 3:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marquette University poll found that 71% of respondents opposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico with only 29% saying they were in favor of the change.

Filed Under: Trends

Republicans Outnumber Democrats in Nevada

January 27, 2025 at 1:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

For the first time in decades, the Republicans now lead the Democrats in Nevada voter registration, the Nevada Independent reports.

Filed Under: Trends

The Gravitational Pull of Partisanship

January 16, 2025 at 11:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “It used to be that a candidate with some combination of personality, charm, a good story, hard work, and good fortune could win in a state with strong partisan leanings in the opposite direction.”

“Now, that is harder and harder in gubernatorial elections and nearly impossible in Senate races. Federal races and the issues that naturally arise in them are easily nationalized, making it difficult to defy that gravitational pull of partisanship.”

Filed Under: Trends

Ideological Extremes Are Growing in the U.S.

January 16, 2025 at 9:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Semafor: “Republicans and Democrats are pulling further apart, new Gallup research suggests, as the share of Americans who identify as moderate has declined over time.”

“Among Republicans, 77% described themselves as conservative in 2024, including 24% who said they were very conservative — both of which are highs since Gallup started polling the question three decades ago. Meanwhile, 55% of Democrats identified as liberal, including 19% who reported being very liberal — also both highs.”

“Overall, 37% of respondents described themselves as conservative and 25% as liberal; 34% say they’re moderate, down from a high of 43% in the 1990s.”

Filed Under: Trends

Americans’ Enthusiasm for Their Jobs Falls to 10-Year Low

January 14, 2025 at 9:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Employee engagement — the involvement and enthusiasm employees feel toward their work and workplace — is at a 10-year low, according to a new Gallup survey.

Filed Under: Trends

The Anti-Social Century

January 8, 2025 at 1:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Derek Thompson: “Americans are now spending more time alone than ever. It’s changing our personalities, our politics, and even our relationship to reality.”

“Day to day, hour to hour, we are choosing this way of life—­its comforts, its ready entertainments. But convenience can be a curse … Over the past few months, I’ve spoken with psychologists, political scientists, sociologists, and technologists about America’s anti-social streak. Although the particulars of these conversations differed, a theme emerged: The individual preference for solitude, scaled up across society and exercised repeatedly over time, is rewiring America’s civic and psychic identity. And the consequences are far-reaching.”

Filed Under: Trends

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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