Archives for September 2014

“If the polls of early September were a reminder that the Democratic path to 50 seats remains open, then the last two weeks were a reminder of how quickly that path could close,” the New York Times reports.

“Recent polls in Iowa, Colorado and Alaska have offered better news for Republicans. As a result, the Republicans are again slight favorites to retake the Senate, according to Leo, The Upshot’s Senate model. They have a 61 percent chance of retaking the chamber, up from 50 percent in the middle of last week.”

Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 60% chance and Sam Wang gives Republicans a 61% chance.

“In an election year shaped by voter anger toward the political establishment, the outcome of an unusually large number of close Senate and governor’s races could be determined by the outsize role of third-party candidates,” the New York Times reports.

“The potential spoilers include a quixotic former three-term senator, a pizza delivery man and an Alaskan whose name, Fish, summons a favored native food. They represent independents, Libertarians and other parties that have suddenly become relevant — and could affect the balance of power in Congress and decide who runs the governor’s offices in several states.”

“I think it is a compliment but I also think Republicans need to realize that if we’re going to win national elections again the same old same old that has been losing will not win again.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview with David Brody, on the White House saying he was the most interesting Republican.

A new Rasmussen survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) with a solid lead over Sen. Mark Pryor (D) in the state’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race, 47% to 40%.

A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governors, 40% to 38%.

“Coakley may be suffering from the souring national mood toward her party’s leader, President Obama. Even in predominantly Democratic Massachusetts, more voters, 48 percent, disapprove of the president’s job performance, than approve, 46 percent.”

Carly Fiorina (R) “is hitting the campaign trail in the lead-up to Election Day for her new super PAC, teaching activists and politicians how to talk to female voters–and building herself a grassroots base in a half-dozen electorally important states in the process,” National Journal reports.

“While her efforts are focused on helping the GOP win control of the Senate in November, political strategists say Fiorina is doing all the right things to prep for a 2016 bid. And the message she’s touting is a preview of the kind of role she could play, if she runs.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “has already spent more than a third of his second term outside of New Jersey, mostly stumping and raising money for fellow Republicans. As the midterm elections draw near, the prospective White House candidate is planning even more time on the road,” the AP reports.