Political Wire

Archives for April 2016

Swing State Insiders See Clinton Crushing Trump

By 81 Comments

Politico: “Republicans are only slightly more bullish on Trump’s prospects than Democrats: More than three-quarters of GOP insiders expect Clinton to best the Republican front-runner in a general-election contest in their respective states. Among Democrats, the belief is nearly universal: 99 percent of surveyed said will Clinton will beat Trump.”

“In three of the biggest swing states—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida—Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.”

Cruz Set to Beat Trump for Virginia Delegates

By 10 Comments

“Ted Cruz got crushed in Virginia on primary day, but even Donald Trump’s forces believe he’s about to stuff the state’s national convention delegation full of supporters anyway,” Politico reports.

“Virginia GOP insiders with knowledge of the state’s delegate selection process expect Cruz backers to overrun this Saturday’s state convention and use their numbers to guarantee that the 13 statewide delegates to the national convention lean Cruz.”

Clinton Readies for a Campaign Defined by Gender

By 21 Comments

“With the nation on the verge of a presidential election between the first woman to lead a major party and an opponent accused of misogyny, Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump are digging in for a fight in which he is likely to attack her precisely because she is a woman,” the New York Times reports.

“Mrs. Clinton’s advisers say they are confident that such comments will galvanize Democrats — and infuriate nearly any woman who has ever had to work harder than a man. But they also recognize that Mr. Trump has proved adept at reading the electorate and at dominating news coverage — and that Mrs. Clinton must parry his attacks without overplaying her hand or further eroding her standing with male voters, whom she has struggled to win over in the Democratic primary.”

Republicans Reminded They Just Don’t Like Cruz

By 12 Comments

Washington Post: “For Cruz, it was just another day of brawling with leading figures from his own party — a role that has formed the cornerstone of his short political career. But for many Republicans, it crystallized an overriding problem for Cruz’s campaign: Many people simply don’t like him.”

“At a moment when he is in urgent need of a Republican army united behind him, Cruz is going into the next Tuesday’s primary here in Indiana with, at best, a platoon. The state’s Republican governor and senator are on the sidelines while Cruz is trying to shake up the race by picking Carly Fiorina as his running mate. Even as Cruz regularly talks of uniting the party, his prickly relationships with many Republicans have come back to haunt him.”

California Takes Spotlight In GOP Race

By 3 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “California’s June 7 primary is the largest prize of this year’s extended nominating contest, with 172 delegates up for grabs.”

“The last time the state figured so prominently in a Republican presidential primary was in 1964, said Mr. Brulte, when California helped Barry Goldwater beat Nelson Rockefeller to win the primary. Mr. Goldwater then lost the general election to incumbent Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson.”

New York Times: Republicans make early rush to California

Bush Says He Missed His Chance

By 70 Comments

Jeb Bush told CNN acknowledged that his presidential campaign made mistakes but doesn’t think it would have made much of a difference.

Said Bush: “I’ve learned to never say never. But this was my chance. This was the chance and I ran into a storm. It just didn’t resonate—people were interested in other things this election.”

GOP Elite Now Sees Trump as Inevitable

By 35 Comments

“Throughout the Republican Party, from New Hampshire to Florida to California, many leaders, operatives, donors and activists arrived this week at the conclusion they had been hoping to thwart or at least delay: Donald Trump will be their presidential nominee,” the Washington Post reports.

“An aura of inevitability is now forming around the controversial mogul. Trump smothered his opponents in six straight primaries in the Northeast and vacuumed up more delegates than even the most generous predictions foresaw. He is gaining high-profile endorsements by the day…”

“The party is at a turning point. Republican stalwarts opposed to Trump remain fearful of the damage the unconventional and unruly billionaire might inflict on the party’s down-ballot candidates in November. But many also now see him as the all-but-certain nominee and are exhausted by the prospect of a contested July convention.”

Some Sad News…

By 185 Comments

Danielle Juzan died unexpectedly last weekend. She was a writer and actor that many of us knew as “Delphine” here on Political Wire.

I didn’t personally know Danielle but her husband tells me she really enjoyed Political Wire. She left over 6,000 comments — with more than 18,000 upvotes! — and was one of the first readers to join when I started the membership. She will be missed.

Please join me in celebrating Danielle’s life during what must be a very tough time for her friends and family. And thanks to everyone who chooses to spend part of their day here.

Cruz Insists He Has No Alliance with Kasich

By 37 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz “downplayed the idea of an alliance between himself and Ohio Gov. John Kasich to prevent Republican front-runner Donald Trump from locking up the nomination,” CNN reports.

Said Cruz: “I recognize that the media is all eager to talk about an alliance. There is no alliance. Kasich and I made a determination where to focus our energies. Where to focus our assets, where to focus our resources.”

Normal America

By 32 Comments

Jed Kolko: “I calculated how demographically similar each U.S. metropolitan area is to the U.S. overall, based on age, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity. The index equals 100 if a metro’s demographic mix were identical to that of the U.S. overall.”

“By this measure, the metropolitan area that looks most like the U.S. is New Haven, Connecticut, followed by Tampa, Florida, and Hartford, Connecticut. All of the 10 large metros that are demographically most similar to the U.S. overall are in the Northeast, Midwest or center of the country. Two of them — New Haven and Philadelphia — are even on Amtrak’s Acela line.”

Trump Can Win Without Indiana

By 9 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Although much has been made about next week’s Indiana primary, Donald Trump now has a clear shot at winning 1,237 delegates even if he does not prevail in the Hoosier State.

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How TV Created Donald Trump

By 57 Comments

Campbell Brown: “I really would like to blame Trump. But everything he is doing is with TV news’ full acquiescence. Trump doesn’t force the networks to show his rallies live rather than do real reporting. Nor does he force anyone to accept his phone calls rather than demand that he do a face-to-face interview that would be a greater risk for him. TV news has largely given Trump editorial control. It is driven by a hunger for ratings—and the people who run the networks and the news channels are only too happy to make that Faustian bargain.”

“Which is why you’ll see endless variations of this banner, one I saw all three cable networks put up in a single day: ‘Breaking news: Trump speaks for first time since Wisconsin loss.’ In all these scenes, the TV reporter just stands there, off camera, essentially useless. The order doesn’t need to be stated. It’s understood in the newsroom: Air the Trump rallies live and uninterrupted. He may say something crazy; he often does, and it’s always great television.”

Cruz Would Rather Lose Loudly

By 21 Comments

Rick Klein: “He’s pulled the goalie, flung the Hail Mary, started chucking a flurry of threes toward the good old basketball ring. Ted Cruz now has permanent company on the campaign trail – permanent so long as his campaign lasts. Choosing Carly Fiorina as his running mate is being cast as a desperate move, and it is. But at least it’s a move while he’s still playing the game. Combined with the odd alliance he formed with John Kasich, Cruz has sought to rest the entirety of his campaign on Indiana for a very good reason: a Donald Trump win there makes Trump’s path to the nomination a near-certainty.”

“The move is bold, and a little weird. But it’s a low-risk, high-reward scenario that acknowledges the reality of the next week and beyond. Fiorina sang a few notes in getting introduced, though her best tunes are aimed at both Trump and Hillary Clinton. Faced with the prospect of losing quietly or loudly, Cruz chose the latter – and to not be lonely. If he wins Indiana, choosing Fiorina will cast a new light on Cruz’s campaign and candidacy. If not, there’s more time to practice and-of-game strategy later.”

A Failed Pact Explains Why Trump Is Winning

By 17 Comments

Matt Bai: “Like Stalin and Churchill huddled over a map of Europe in 1944, Ted Cruz and John Kasich began a very odd week by announcing — publicly, for reasons known only to them — that they were divvying up the remaining primary states in order to maintain individual spheres of influence. Cruz would get Indiana (which is next to Ohio), while Kasich would get New Mexico (which shares a border with Texas). Super-logical.”

“Of course, primary voters — unlike, say, Polish peasants — tend to do whatever they want, so all this plotting didn’t exactly make Cruz and Kasich grandmasters of global domination. More like a couple of guys playing Risk in somebody’s basement… And like most games of Risk, the whole thing fell apart within a few hours, as both campaigns backtracked and said they weren’t telling voters in any state not to vote for their chosen candidates, exactly. They just weren’t telling voters they should vote for their chosen candidates, either.”

Why Fiorina Won’t Help Cruz Much In California

By 12 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If Ted Cruz is going to deny Donald Trump the 1,237 delegates to win the GOP nomination, a strong showing in the nation’s most populous state would certainly help.

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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