“I believe history will remember him like John Dean.”
— Simona Mangiante, the fiancee of George Papadopoulos, quoted by the Washington Post, adding “there’s a lot to come.”
Archives for January 2018
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5 Takeaways from the Government Shutdown
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Trump’s First-Year Approval Worst by 10 Points
Gallup: “President Trump’s job approval rating averaged 38.4% during his first year in office — more than 10 percentage points lower than any other elected president’s first-year average.”
More Tax Cuts Included in Government Funding Bill
New York Times: “The deal struck by Democrats and Republicans on Monday to end a brief government shutdown contains $31 billion in tax cuts, including a temporary delay in implementing three health care-related taxes.”
“Those delays, which enjoy varying degrees of bipartisan support, are not offset by any spending cuts or tax increases, and thus will add to a federal budget deficit that is already projected to increase rapidly as last year’s mammoth new tax law takes effect.”
Did Democrats Fold Now for Better Leverage Later?
Daily Beast: “Two truths emerged from a deal that the Senate cut on Monday to re-open the federal government after a weekend-long shutdown. The first is that Democrats caved. The second is that they find themselves somewhat better positioned for what is likely to be another, far more bitter, shutdown battle in the coming weeks.”
“Republicans no longer have children’s health care as a political cudgel against Democrats, since the bill that passed on Monday includes a six-year authorization for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). And McConnell is on the spot to follow through on his pledge to resolve the standoff over the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.”
Greitens Talks About His Affair
The newly-released audio from an Associated Press interview with Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) is pretty remarkable. He says at the outset, “I want you guys to ask every question you have.”
But then he got the questions.
Pennsylvania Court Throws Out State’s Congressional Map
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court “struck down the boundaries of the state’s 18 congressional districts, granting a major victory to plaintiffs who had contended that they were unconstitutionally gerrymandered to benefit Republicans,” the AP reports.
“The order from the Democratic-controlled court gives the Republican-controlled Legislature until Feb. 9 to pass a replacement and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf until Feb. 15 to submit it to the court.”
Stephen Wolf estimates that Democrats could gain several House seats with a new nonpartisan map.
[alert type=”general” dismiss=”no”]Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation is controlled by Republicans, 13 to 5, even though Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans.[/alert]
Trump Privately Discussed Replacing Kelly
Vanity Fair: “Donald Trump’s relationship with John Kelly, his chief of staff, fraught from the beginning, may finally have gone past the point of no return. Two prominent Republicans in frequent contact with the White House told me that Trump has discussed choosing Kelly’s successor in recent days, asking a close friend what he thought about David Urban, a veteran Washington lobbyist and political operative who helped engineer Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania. Ivanka is also playing a central role in the search, quietly field-testing ideas with people.”
“Kelly’s departure likely isn’t imminent… Trump can also hardly afford another high-level staff departure, which would trigger days of negative news cycles.”
“But the prospect of a Trump-Kelly rupture became more probable as news of their clashes over immigration leaked. Last week, Kelly reportedly infuriated Trump when he told Fox News that Trump had ‘evolved’ on his position to build a southern border wall. Kelly further catalyzed Trump’s ire when he told Democratic lawmakers that Trump was ‘uninformed’ when he made his campaign promise to build the wall.”
Senators Agree to End Shutdown
Senate Democrats accepted a deal to end the government shutdown in exchange for the promise of a vote to codify protections for the Dreamers and border security before February 8.
The funding bill passed 81 to 18.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’m too new, too junior to know.”
— Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who has been in the Senate since 1975, to NBC News on when the government shutdown would end.
Trump Uses Accent to Imitate Indian Prime Minister
Senior administration officials told the Washington Post that Trump has been known to “affect an Indian accent” to quote Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who last year condemned U.S. activity in Afghanistan during a private meeting with Trump.
RNC Blames Democrats for Shutdown In 5 Battlegrounds
“The Republican National Committee launched a six-figure campaign this weekend targeting 2.6 million voters in midterm battleground states with Democratic senators — Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The campaign blames Democrats for the government shutdown,” Axios reports.
“The GOP has raised a record amount of money, and is already using it to get involved in a few specific, crucial midterm races.”
Trump Is Just a Weak Negotiator
Josh Barro: “The president’s shifting positions are a problem that has contributed to the shutdown. But there’s another, related issue: Members of Congress in both parties believe the president is a weak negotiator. This discourages them from compromising, even among themselves, because they believe they’ll eventually be able to roll Trump closer to their own position.”
“Why cut a deal now when you believe you’ll eventually be able to get Trump alone in a room and he’ll agree to give you more?”
Was Trump’s Election a Fluke?
Los Angeles Times: “By most political measures, Donald Trump shouldn’t be in the White House. That’s not an assessment of his policies or fitness for the job. Rather, it’s judging by the rules that once seemed to govern presidential campaigning.”
“Trump never held office, never served in government or spent a day in military uniform. His campaign was slipshod; he was vastly outspent by his Democratic rival and faced strong Republican opposition after a hostile takeover of the GOP. Perhaps most striking, more than 60% of those surveyed thought Trump was unqualified to be president the day he was elected. The same exit polls found Trump viewed favorably by fewer than 4 in 10 Americans; only 1 in 3 considered him ‘honest and trustworthy.'”
“Which raises a question on Trump’s first anniversary as president: Was his victory a fluke? Or did Trump’s improbable win signal a fundamental transformation in presidential politics, shattering norms and paving a path for other candidates with scant experience, or outsiders from the executive suite, Hollywood, the sports world or other less-conventional breeding grounds?”
Almost Half Think Trump Is Mentally Unstable
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 48% of voters think President Trump is mentally stable, while 47% do not.
“Trump’s job approval rating at his one year mark is at 36%, while 58%. The next lowest approval rating from a president at one year was Gerald Ford in 1975 with 45 percent.”
Expect More Government Shutdowns
Stan Collender: “The biggest and most depressing lesson coming from Washington these days is that government shutdowns are a politically acceptable tactic for Congress and the White House.”
“As a result, what was once very rare must be considered the new normal in Washington. Regardless of which political party is in the majority in the House and Senate and who is president, government shutdowns are now very likely to be threatened and occur almost every year.”
“Government shutdowns used to be black swans, but now they are more like the common pigeons you see everywhere all the time.”
North Korea Months Away from Being Able to Attack U.S.
CIA director Mike Pompeo told CBS News that North Korea is only “a handful of months” away from delivering an attack on the United States.
Said Pompeo: “We’ll never know the exact nature of what’s taking place…. The core risk is that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is continuing to expand, advance, become more powerful, more capable, more reliable.”
Trump Is Holding Up a Deal to End Shutdown
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