Nate Silver: “We do see, however, that it is a natural group for independent or third-party candidates to pursue. On average between the various issue combinations, 8 percent of socially-liberal-but-fiscally-conservative voters went for candidates other than Clinton and Trump in 2016, a bit larger than the overall third-party vote in 2016, which was around 6 percent.”
“But the headline is that, when choosing between the major-party candidates, these voters were more likely to go for Trump than Clinton. Among the 25 combinations of socially liberal and fiscally conservative views, Trump won the most votes 19 times, Clinton did so five times, and there was one draw. And on average between the 25 combinations, Trump won 52 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 40 percent. That’s not a huge margin: a 12-point edge among 16 percent of the electorate. But it adds up to enough voters that, if all of them had gone for a third party instead, Clinton would have won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, and therefore the Electoral College.”