Political Wire

Archives for September 15, 2023 at 1:40 pm EDT

Oregon Conservatives Want to Be Part of Idaho

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Washington Post: “The disaffection among conservatives has spawned a movement to change the state’s political dynamic in a novel if quixotic way — rather than relocate or change the politics, which seems impossible to many here, why not move the border and become residents who live under the rules of Idaho?”

“This is no small task. Both the Oregon and Idaho state legislatures, which are controlled by Democrats and Republicans respectively, would have to approve a border shift, which in this case would be the most significant geographically since western states began forming in the mid-19th century. The issue would then go to the U.S. Congress.”

Biden Sides with Auto Workers

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“President Biden on Friday sided with members of the United Auto Workers, who have walked out of three plants in the Midwest amid a contract dispute over pay, pensions and work hours at the three Detroit automakers,” the New York Times reports.

Said Biden: “Let’s be clear, no one wants a strike. Say it again. No one wants a strike. But I respect the workers right to use their options on in the collective bargaining system, and I understand the workers’ frustration.”

Meanwhile, Donald Trump told NBC News: “The auto workers are being sold down the river by their leadership.”

Biden Gets Little Credit for Economic Rebound

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“As Biden tries to sell Americans on an economic rebound, most Americans aren’t buying it,” a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll “reveals major concerns about the state of the economy and little hope of people’s outlook improving.”

“What’s worse for the incumbent president, Americans say they trust Donald Trump − not Biden − to fix it.”

Also incredible: “Nearly 70% of Americans said the economy is getting worse, while only 22% said the economy is improving.”

Putin Faces Grim Battlefield Math

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Washington Post: “For all the nefarious glamour of Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia — bulletproof trains, a meeting at a remote spaceport, dinner of duck salad and crab dumplings — many experts believe the visit shows the reality of grim battlefield math: The Russian army is burning through artillery shells in Ukraine at a rate it can’t sustain.”

“Whether Vladimir Putin can find a solution to this calculation or not is crucial for the next stage of the war in Ukraine.”

Hypersonic Missiles Are Game-Changers

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Wall Street Journal: “Flying at least 20 times the speed of sound, it could reach anywhere on earth in less than an hour.  The summer 2021 test flight ended with the missile striking near a target in China, but it sent shock waves through Washington. National security officials concluded Beijing had launched a hypersonic weapon—a projectile capable of traveling at least five times the speed of sound.”

“The weapons can attack with extreme speed, be launched from great distances and evade most air defenses. They can carry conventional explosives or nuclear warheads. China and Russia have them ready to use. The U.S. doesn’t.” 

China’s Defense Minister Has Not Been Seen in Weeks

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“China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, has not been seen in public in more than two weeks, fueling speculation about further upheaval in the military after the abrupt removal of two top commanders in charge of the country’s nuclear force,” the New York Times reports.

Washington Post: “The expected purge of Li, who has been noticeably absent from public view for the past two weeks, in the wake of other dismissals will heighten a sense of uncertainty over how China’s day-to-day foreign policy is being managed. It will also further call into question Xi’s leadership as he consolidates power.”

Related from the Financial Times: Xi Jinping turns anti-corruption focus to China’s military.

Why Isn’t Biden Getting a Mainstream Primary Challenger?

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Jonathan Chait: “The election is more than a year away, and Biden’s polling might improve. Another 14 months of surging wages and declining inflation could give his campaign the ‘Morning in America‘ feel it has thus far lacked. On the other hand, if the economy sputters, or if Biden suffers a health setback that reinforces the public’s already serious doubts about his fitness, it could get even worse. For an incumbent presiding over peace and prosperity to be effectively trailing an indicted felon feels terrifying. And it undercuts one of the central rationales of both Biden’s 2020 run and his reelection campaign: that he is best positioned in the Democratic field to stave off the threat of a second Trump term.”

“The strangest thing about this harrowing circumstance is that no mainstream Democrat is challenging Biden for the nomination. The hunger for such a challenge certainly exists: A CNN poll finds two-thirds of Democrats want their party to nominate somebody else. There isn’t much mystery as to why. The same poll asked Democrats what concerns they may have about Biden and found that two-thirds cited his age, his health, his mental sharpness, or his vice-president, all of which amount to the same thing. The demand for a different option is robust. What is mystifyingly absent is the supply.”

David Von Drehle: Democrats are crazy to insist only Biden can beat Trump.

Old Metrics No Longer Work in Predicting Elections

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Amy Walter: “When I first started covering politics some 25 years ago, the following data points were considered the gold standard to understanding the trajectory of an election cycle: a president’s job approval rating, the overall mood of the electorate (namely, is the country headed in the right direction or wrong direction) and opinions about the economy. Taken together, they told the story of a president or party in peril, or a president and party that were headed to reelection.”

“Over these past few years, however, these questions have become less determinative.”

Trump May Have Succeeded in Delaying His Fraud Trial

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“A last-minute legal challenge by former President Donald Trump’s lawyers could disrupt a trial scheduled for next month in the New York attorney general’s business fraud lawsuit against the former president and his company,” CBS News reports.

“A state appeals court judge on Thursday ordered a potential postponement of the non-jury trial, scheduled to start Oct. 2, after Trump’s lawyers filed a lawsuit accusing the trial judge, Arthur Engoron, of repeatedly abusing his authority.”

Trump and DeSantis Go Head-to-Head

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“Former President Donald Trump is set to deliver a pair of headline speeches Friday night at two socially conservative Christian groups’ gatherings in Washington, D.C., his first trip to the nation’s capital since his criminal arraignment last month,” CNBC reports.

“Trump’s top Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is also scheduled to speak at the two summits hosted by the Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee and the Family Research Council.”

“The women’s group, which espouses staunch opposition to abortion, gay marriage and a progressive view of transgender rights, bills itself as the nation’s largest public policy women’s organization. The Family Research Council takes a similarly hard-line tack on social issues.”

Biden Aims to Trump-Proof the Federal Work Force

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“When President Biden took office, he swiftly canceled an executive order his predecessor Donald Trump had issued that could have enabled Mr. Trump to fire tens of thousands of federal workers and replace them with loyalists. But Democrats never succeeded in enacting legislation to strengthen protections for the civil service system as a matter of law,” the New York Times reports.

“Now, with Mr. Trump seemingly poised to win the GOP nomination again, the Biden administration is instead trying to effectively Trump-proof the civil service with a new regulation.”

“On Friday, the White House proposed a new rule that would make it more onerous to reinstate Mr. Trump’s old executive order if Mr. Trump or a like-minded Republican wins the 2024 election.”

A Real-Time Test of Bidenomics

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“Rarely do so many parts of a president’s political identity collide in one place,” the New York Times reports.

“Friday’s walkout by the United Auto Workers is a real-time test of President Biden’s economic agenda: his call for higher wages for the middle class; his unapologetic pro-union stand; his climate-driven push to reimagine an electric vehicle future for car companies — centered in Michigan, a state that he must win in 2024 to remain in the Oval Office.”

CNN: Biden confronts the biggest labor crisis of his presidency so far.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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