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The Rise of the Union Right

December 30, 2024 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Annie Lowrey: “Exit polls indicate that nearly half of union households voted Republican in 2024, up from 43 percent in 2016 and 37 percent in 2000. Other polling shows that Trump commanded a 26-point lead among white voters without a college degree in union homes, up nine points since 2020. Conversely, Democratic support dropped 35 percentage points among Latino voters in union households, and also waned among Black union voters.”

“These trends are part of a long, slow tectonic electoral realignment. This century, the country has become less polarized in income terms, with Democrats gaining among coastal elites and Republicans among the working class. In the past decade, it has also become less racially polarized, with Black, Asian, and Latino voters shifting red. And education has become a much stronger predictor of a person’s partisanship. Democrats now dominate among the college-educated, and Republicans dominate among white people without a degree.”

“The Republican coalition has become more diverse, while the Democrats have seen their working-class base—the working-class base that delivered them election after election in the 20th century—walk away.”

Filed Under: Trends

New Jersey Ballot Access May Get More Difficult

December 30, 2024 at 10:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just for members: A new issue of Ballot Access News.

New Jersey threatens to make ballot access more difficult… What Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vote totals mean… A roundup of ballot access news from around the country.

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Filed Under: Members

Victoria Sparz Not Ready to Vote for Mike Johnson

December 30, 2024 at 10:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Victoria Sparz (R-IN) says she needs to be convinced to re-elect Mike Johnson as speaker.

Filed Under: House of Representatives


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Elon Musk Wears Down Global Resistance to Starlink

December 30, 2024 at 10:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “Worries that the world’s richest person would subvert sensitive state-run telecommunications channels around the globe are being replaced by attempts by government officials trying to tap economic incentives.”

Filed Under: Technology

Trump Backs Mike Johnson for Speaker

December 30, 2024 at 10:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President-elect Donald Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Monday, days before a House vote on Friday to elect a new Speaker, The Hill reports.

Said Trump, on Truth Social: “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!”

For members: Some Thoughts on This Week’s Speaker Election

Filed Under: House of Representatives

Court Upholds Trump Verdict in E. Jean Carroll Case

December 30, 2024 at 10:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal appeals court panel on Monday upheld a jury’s verdict finding President-elect Donald Trump liable for sexually abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll and ordering him to pay $5 million,” The Hill reports.

Filed Under: Trump Legacy

Immigration Courts Backlog Could Slow Mass Deportation

December 30, 2024 at 9:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Time: “On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to launch the ‘largest deportation’ in American history. But actually getting that done will require billions of dollars to hire thousands of new federal workers and pay for new spaces to hold those waiting to be deported. But perhaps most daunting will be another obstacle: moving through a massive backlog in immigration court cases…”

“Currently there are 3.6 million cases pending before immigration judges, the largest number of pending cases in the history of the American immigration system. That is a 44% increase from the 2.5 million cases pending the year before. And the problem is only getting bigger, as more people continue to be put into deportation proceedings.”

Filed Under: Immigration

Some Thoughts on This Week’s Speaker Election

December 30, 2024 at 9:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The 119th Congress officially begins at noon on Friday and we’re once again faced with the prospect of a contested election for Speaker.

The math is brutal for Republicans:

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Filed Under: House of Representatives, Members

Jimmy Carter’s Parting Gift for Trump

December 30, 2024 at 8:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Former President Jimmy Carter left one last parting gift for president-elect Donald Trump after his death at 100 on Sunday. According to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the American flag should fly at ‘half-staff for 30 days at all federal buildings, grounds, and naval vessels throughout the United States and its territories and possessions after the death of the president or a former president,’” the Daily Beast reports.

“This means that on Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, all flags will be at half-staff in honor of the late president.”

Filed Under: Political History, Trump Transition

An Unlucky President

December 30, 2024 at 8:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Paul Krugman: “Jimmy Carter was a very good man — something that seems especially poignant to think about as we enter an age of kakistocracy, in which being a terrible person seems to be a necessary qualification for high office. And he was surely the best ex-president we’ve ever had. But his presidency itself is widely regarded as a failure.”

“I don’t think that’s fair. Carter wasn’t a Harry Truman, a great president whose greatness only came to be recognized many years later. But was he a bad president? Not in any way I can see. He was just a victim of time and chance… The truth is that luck plays a much bigger role in politics than we like to think.”

Filed Under: Political History

Sununu Insists Trump Hasn’t Changed the GOP

December 30, 2024 at 8:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he does not think President-elect Donald Trump has permanently changed the GOP, The Hill reports.

Said Sununu: “We’ve always been a spectrum in the party. We’ve had moderates, we’ve had fiscal conservatives and social moderates and social conservatives. It’s a huge spectrum, and it’s a big tent, and it will be, it will continue to be.”

Filed Under: Republicans, Trump Legacy

Biden Announces $2.5 Billion for Ukraine

December 30, 2024 at 7:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Biden announced that the United States would offer almost $2.5 billion in defense assistance to Ukraine, a move that will bring an “immediate influx of capabilities” as the country defends itself against Russia’s assault, ABC News reports.

Filed Under: Foreign Affairs

Get Ready for an All-Out War on the Debt Limit

December 30, 2024 at 7:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“GOP leaders are staring down two bad options to solve President-elect Donald Trump’s debt-limit problem, after failing to execute his demand to lift the federal borrowing cap in the last government funding bill,” Politico reports.

“One path requires full buy-in from Republican lawmakers to address the issue via budget reconciliation — a huge challenge thanks to the party’s fierce fiscal hawks. The other entails winning over Democrats, who for the most part rejected Trump’s initial debt-limit gambit last week.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

The Misunderstood Consequences of Carter’s Presidency

December 30, 2024 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gerald Seib: “Carter had been running a Georgia peanut farm just a few years before his improbable victory in 1976. At a time that the presidency had long been passed from one insider to another, he showed that an outsider could break through. In a sense, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump both walked in his footsteps.”

“Though the phenomenon now is associated with Republicans, Carter actually brought evangelical Christians into the political arena as an organized force. By openly presenting himself as a born-again Christian—indeed, one who continued to teach Sunday school while president—he saw a moral calculus in the decisions of governance and brought discussion of religion out of the political shadows. That won him, temporarily, the support of many Americans of similar belief.”

“It is little remembered now, but Carter, a Democrat, improbably introduced an era of deregulation of the U.S. economy. At least to some extent, he deregulated the airline, trucking and railroad industries, and lifted price controls on oil. He never quite got the benefits hoped for, but his actions marked an inflection point for the government’s relationship with the economy.”

Timothy Noah: The late former president wasn’t the liberal most people imagine.

Filed Under: Political History

A Very Unproductive Congress

December 30, 2024 at 6:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If measured by the number of bills signed into law, the 118th Congress was by far the most unproductive since at least the 1980s,” Axios reports.

“That is not the only metric of success, but the stunning stat is a marker of how difficult the chaos of the last two years made actual legislating.”

Filed Under: House of Representatives

When Jimmy Carter Turned TV Into a Pulpit

December 30, 2024 at 6:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Poniewozik: “Other presidents were more celebrated for their on-screen presences, but in 1979 he gave one of the White House’s most astonishing televised speeches.”

Filed Under: Media Buzz, Political History

Carter Was the Odd Man Out in the Presidents’ Club

December 30, 2024 at 6:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mr. Carter had a hot-and-cold relationship with the fellow members of the exclusive club of presidents — more cold than hot, in fact. From his re-election defeat in 1980 until his death on Sunday, he was the odd man out, distant from the Republicans and Democrats who followed him and often getting on their nerves because of his outspokenness.”

“He did not join his fellow presidents on the high-dollar speaking circuit, nor did he team up for many joint humanitarian missions. He was rarely consulted by incumbents except when he forced his way into some issue and made himself hard to ignore. When all of the living presidents gathered to welcome Barack Obama to the White House in 2009, Mr. Carter was the one standing slightly off to the side, removed from his chummy peers physically and metaphorically.”

“To many of his successors, he was a thorn in their side, always doing his own thing even if it conflicted with official foreign policy. What he considered principled, they considered sanctimonious. While other former presidents generally held their tongues out of deference to the current occupant of the Oval Office, Mr. Carter rarely stood on ceremony.”

CNN: From Biden to Clinton: Jimmy Carter’s relationships with his modern successors.

Filed Under: Political History

Trump Blasts GOP and McCarthy Over Debt Ceiling

December 29, 2024 at 10:50 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday harshly criticized the House GOP, and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), for voting to raise the debt ceiling in 2023 through Jan. 1, 2025, The Hill reports.

Trump in a post on Truth Social called McCarthy “a good man and a friend of mine,” but said it would go down as “one of the dumbest political decisions made in years.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

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Triangulation: “Triangulation” is when a political candidate presents his or her views as being above and between the left and right sides of the political spectrum.….

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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