NBC News reports there’s “early concern” inside the Trump campaign about Election Day turnout activities in Pennsylvania.
Said one person with direct knowledge of the campaign’s operations: “The team in Pennsylvania was not as prepared as it should be in a state that could decide the presidency.”
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania shows nearly six in 10 don’t believe President Trump should be re-elected.
Asked the first word that enters their mind when they hear Trump’s name, the top response was “arrogant/pompous/jerk,” followed by “idiot/moron.” The third most-common response was a tie between “effective/accomplished,” “corrupt/criminal,” and “great/awesome/good.”
In general election match ups, Joe Biden performs the best in a head-to-head match-up, leading Trump 52% to 43%. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren also topped Trump, 50% to 45%, though that result was within the poll’s 6 percentage point margin of error.”
“Donald Trump’s campaign is injecting itself into a battle to lead Pennsylvania’s Republican Party — a race with serious implications for the president’s reelection hopes that has badly divided the GOP in the battleground state,” Politico reports.
“The fight for the state’s vacant Republican chairmanship was triggered when Val DiGiorgio resigned from the position two weeks ago amid a scandal involving racy texts and allegations of sexual harassment. The episode set off fierce jockeying and backbiting within the state GOP, as Trump’s team tried to close ranks behind Bernadette ‘Bernie’ Comfort, the party’s vice chairwoman for the past two years.”
“But the Trump campaign’s involvement has not gone over well with some Pennsylvania Republicans, especially supporters of Comfort’s rival, attorney Lawrence Tabas. They argue that Trump’s advisers are unnecessarily taking sides in a local feud and could exacerbate longstanding power struggles within the state GOP.”
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New York Times: “The chairman of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party abruptly resigned Tuesday after a news report that he sent a sexually explicit photograph of himself to a female candidate who ran unsuccessfully for Philadelphia City Council.”
“The report, in the Philadelphia Inquirer, said that the chairman, Val DiGiorgio, sent the candidate, Irina Goldstein, a photo of his erect penis on Facebook Messenger after exchanging messages for a few months after she accepted his friend request last October.”
Jennifer Rubin: “Republicans and Democrats alike recognize how crucial Pennsylvania will be in determining the 2020 presidential election. Looking at the electoral map, if Pennsylvania returns to the Democratic column (where it was, twice each, for President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama), President Trump could not lose Florida, for example, and retain the presidency.”
“Without Pennsylvania, he couldn’t win unless he won two out of three among Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina (all other states going as they did in 2016). In short, if Democrats can win Pennsylvania, their chances of booting out Trump improve substantially.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds Joe Biden leading President Trump by double-digits in the important swing state, 53% to 42%.
Other possible match ups:
Politico: “In Pennsylvania last year, Republicans tagged Democrats up and down the ticket as socialists or sympathetic to socialism… The strategy was deliberate and coordinated, emanating from the state’s Republican Party chairman, Val DiGiorgio.”
“But come Election Day, Democrats flipped three House seats and 16 more in the state General Assembly. [Gov. Tom] Wolf easily won reelection, as did Democratic Sen. Bob Casey… The election in Pennsylvania serves as a case study of a campaign strategy that could prove critical to Trump’s reelection — or undoing — in 2020.”
“On the same day that the Pennsylvania House swore in its first Muslim women member Rep. Movita Johnson-Harrell (D), freshman Rep. Stephanie Borowicz (R), stepped to the House rostrum to offer a heartful prayer proclaiming her Christian beliefs and how the nation has forgotten Jesus and asking for forgiveness,” the Harrisburg Patriot-News reports.
Said Borowicz: “Jesus, you are our only hope. At the name of Jesus, every knee will bow and every tongue will confess Jesus, that you are Lord.”
“But it wasn’t until the ending of her prayer when House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) appeared to reach out to seemingly cut her off… The prayer drew ire from House Minority Whip Jordan Harris (D) who accused Borowicz of weaponizing her religion to ‘intimidate, demean and degrade’ the newly installed Muslim representative in front of her family, friends and guests who gathered to witness her take the oath of office.”
Watch the video.
Politico: “The enfeebled state party — still reeling after a devastating midterm election where Republicans lost three congressional seats and whiffed gubernatorial and Senate races by double digits — is tangled in a power struggle messy enough to capture the attention of the White House. The chaos threatens the president’s chances in a state where there’s no room for error.”
“Top Trump allies are eager to have a strong Trump voice atop the state party in 2020. … But in Pennsylvania, the Trump team sat out the election for state party chairman in 2017 — and some state Republicans now fear that was a mistake.”
Pennsylvania Senate President Pro-Tempore Joe Scarnati (R) has asked Sen.-elect Lindsey Williams (D) “to provide more documentation about her residency as Republicans decide whether to block her from taking her seat next year,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
“In the weeks before the November election, Republicans backed an unsuccessful legal effort to get her kicked off the ballot on the grounds that she did not meet the residency requirements outlined in the state constitution, which says that lawmakers must live in the state four years.”
“Ms. Williams, who has repeatedly said she does meet the requirements, prevailed and won election in the 38th Senatorial District, which includes parts of Pittsburgh and its northern suburbs.”
Politico: “Pennsylvania was the linchpin of Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, but it could be ground zero of Democrats’ 2018 comeback. Not only are the incumbent Democratic senator and governor prohibitive favorites to win reelection, but Democrats could also pick up as many as a half-dozen congressional seats — roughly a quarter of the seats the party needs nationwide to win back the House.”
A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) leading challenger Lou Barletta (R), 47% to 34%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) leads Scott Wagner (R), 52% to 35%.
Democrats also lead Republicans by nine points in the generic ballot, 48% to 39%.
Key finding: “Nearly half (54%) of the state’s registered voters say they are ‘very interested’ in the 2018 elections. Voter interest is related to both political party and political ideology. At the moment, more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (53%) or independents (33%) say they are ‘very interested.’ More self-described liberals (62%) than conservatives (53%) or moderates (51%) say they are ‘very interested.'”
First Read: “Two years after Donald Trump shocked the political world by winning Pennsylvania in the general election (and after Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., surprisingly won re-election, too), the GOP isn’t showing the same kind of strength — at least from last night’s primary returns. The competitive GOP Senate primary between Barletta and James Christiana got fewer votes (a combined 681,000) than incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., got in running unopposed (743,000). Additionally, more Democrats turned out to vote in PA-1 (49,000 vs. 47,000) and PA-7 primaries (45,000 vs. 31,700), which will be competitive general-election races come November.”
“The Supreme Court on Monday turned down a request from Pennsylvania Republican legislative leaders to block the implementation of a redrawn congressional map that creates more parity between the political parties in the state,” the Washington Post reports.
“The practical impact is the 2018 elections in the state are likely to be held with a map much more favorable to Democrats, who scored a surprising victory last week in a special election in Pennsylvania.”
Nate Cohn: “The Republican-drawn map was an extreme outlier compared with the simulations made by Jowei Chen of the University of Michigan, who has provided expert testimony in many redistricting cases. None of the simulations favored Republicans by anywhere near as much as the congressional map enacted in 2011, which gave the Republicans a 13-to-5 advantage. And partly on that basis, the court ruled that the map violated the state’s constitution.”
“But what about the remedial map recently adopted by the court? It is not an outlier to the same extent as the Republican-drawn map. But if you look at what 2016 statewide results would have been with the new map, the overall Democratic performance arguably would have been better than in all 500 of Mr. Chen’s simulations.
Nate Cohn: “Few people expected that the Pennsylvania congressional map, which the state Supreme Court ordered redrawn to undo Republican gerrymandering, would prove to be as favorable to Democrats as the one adopted by the court on Monday.”
“Perhaps the easiest way to convey the cause for surprise: The new map is better for Democrats — by nearly every measure — than the maps that Democrats themselves proposed.”
“The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday released a new congressional district map to be used for the 2018 elections for U.S. House seats,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
“Its plan splits only 13 counties. Of those, four counties are split into three districts and nine are split into two districts. By contrast the most recent map, enacted in 2011, split 28 counties… Many of the changes seem generally favorable for Democrats.”
Rick Hasen: “The early indications are that this is a much more competitive map which will help the Democrats compared to the gerrymandered maps drawn by the Republican legislature. Given Nate Persily’s general reputation for fairness, I expect that these maps will be fair and comply with the requirements set out by the state Supreme Court.”
“The Pennsylvania Supreme Court is set to release a new congressional district map on Monday, after weeks of political and legal fighting following its ruling that the map adopted in 2011 was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
“But whatever the map looks like, don’t expect it to end the battle.”
“Republican lawmakers have vowed to resist the court’s order, saying they will seek a federal challenge to whatever map is selected.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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