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The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Pennsylvania’s New Map Is as Gerrymandered as Old One

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Washington Post: “On Friday, Republican leaders in the legislature submitted their new map for the governor’s approval. As directed by the Supreme Court, the new map is much more compact than the old one… The new districts generally respect county and municipal boundaries and don’t ‘wander seemingly arbitrarily across Pennsylvania,’ as the state’s Supreme Court wrote.”

“Unfortunately for Pennsylvania voters, the new districts show just as much partisan bias as the old ones.”

“Under the existing map, Democratic House candidates have routinely received roughly 50 percent of the statewide popular House vote but only five of the state’s 18 House seats. The new map is unlikely to change that.”

Pennsylvania Senate Leader Refuses Order on Redistricting

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Pennsylvania state Senate president pro tempore Joe Scarnati (R) said that he “will not cooperate with the state Supreme Court’s request to turn over data after it found that the state’s congressional map was unconstitutionally gerrymandered,” The Hill reports.

Philadelphia Inquirer: “Republican lawmakers, including Scarnati, have said the court order does not give them enough time to draw a new map, especially because the justices did not provide a full opinion when they released the order overturning the map. By imposing a tight timeline with little guidance, the Republicans argue, the court sets them up to fail, clearing the way for the justices to draw their own map.”

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Republicans Are Reeling In Pennsylvania

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

News that Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-PA) privately settled a sexual misconduct case with a former staffer instantly threw his district into “Toss Up” or “Lean Democratic” status. Meehan either becomes a damaged incumbent running in a very competitive district or he resigns and leaves an open seat.

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Judge Says Pennsylvania Districts Are Not Illegal

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“A Pennsylvania judge said Friday the state’s Congressional districts were drawn to give Republicans an advantage, but they did not violate the state Constitution, ruling in a high-profile gerrymandering case with the potential to have major consequences on the 2018 midterm elections,” the New York Times reports.

“The case now goes to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which has agreed to fast-track it. If the court rejects Judge Brobson’s conclusion, it could order new maps drawn in time for the 2018 midterm elections. Pennsylvania is expected to be fiercely fought terrain next year in elections turning on President Trump’s popularity.”

Pennsylvania Democrats Locked Out of Computer Network

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“The Pennsylvania Senate Democrats have been hit by a ransomware attack that has locked senators and employees out of their computer network since the early morning hours of Friday,” state officials told NBC News.

“In a ransomware attack, hackers inject a network with malware that typically encrypts important data, and then demand payment in exchange for a key that releases the data. They threaten to destroy the data if they aren’t paid.”

Clinton Way Up In Pennsylvania

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A new Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 50% to 41%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Hillary Clinton is flirting with fifty thanks to Philly. At this point Clinton’s large lead in the Philadelphia area is offsetting losses to Trump in other parts of the state. She also is amassing the support of women and thus drowning out Trump’s marginal lead among men.”

In the U.S. Senate race, Katie McGinty (D) leads Sen. Pat Toomey (R), 43% to 36%, with a considerably high 20% still undecided.

Trump Has Little Organization In Pennsylvania

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“Nearly everyone can agree that Donald Trump’s path to the White House goes through Pennsylvania,” Politico reports.

“But local party leaders in some of the state’s most pivotal counties say there’s been almost no outreach from his campaign so far, and there’s scant evidence of any Trump-driven ground organization. What infrastructure is in place lags behind the Democratic coordinated campaign on behalf of Hillary Clinton.”

Is Clinton Talking Pennsylvania for Granted?

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David Wasserman: “Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight states — yet they’ve conspicuously left out the state that might be likeliest to tip the 2016 election: Pennsylvania.”

“Michigan and Wisconsin were absent from the list, as well, but the Keystone State is the most curious Rust Belt omission. In May, we laid out the case for why the Keystone State could be on pace to decide a close national race. Evidently, Democratic ad strategists don’t share that view.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We are shifting one state a bit toward Trump, although Democrats retain an advantage there.  Pennsylvania, potentially the most important state in 2016, moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. Trump is targeting the state, and a number of his more plausible paths to 270 include turning the Keystone State red for the first time since 1988.”

Pennsylvania Poll Shows Why Clinton Needs Unity

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A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just one point, 41% to 40%

The reason? Clinton loses a whopping 15% of Democrats to Trump and loses nearly 30% of Sanders supporters to Trump or third party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.

However, if she can win back even half of the Sanders supporter holdouts, it would become a more comfortable seven point lead for Clinton, 47% to 40%.

Pennsylvania Could Be a Tipping Point

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David Wasserman: “When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, the only two states that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic ‘swing state’ — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending.”

“But in 2016, Pennsylvania could be the keystone of the Electoral College and the ultimate arbiter of whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.”

Trump Way Up In Pennsylvania

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A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania finds Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential race with 44%, followed by Ted Cruz at 28% and John Kasich at 23%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “It looks like Trump should be able to bank the 17 statewide delegates in Pennsylvania.  The real question is how the directly elected district delegates will vote at the convention in July.”

Criminal Charges Recommended Against Pennsylvania Attorney General

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The special prosecutor and grand jury investigating allegations that Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane (D) “leaked secret information to a newspaper have found evidence of wrongdoing and recommended that she be criminally charged,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“The panel concluded that Kane violated grand-jury secrecy rules by leaking investigative material in a bid to embarrass political enemies… Some of those familiar with the grand jury presentment say it recommended charges that included perjury and contempt of court.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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