Political Wire

Nunn Could Run Again in Georgia

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Michelle Nunn (D) kept the door open for another campaign in an interview with the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Said Nunn: “I feel we ran a good campaign. I feel proud of it. We had a great team – volunteers and staff. You spend the first few days being disappointed. Then you spend the next few days feeling a lot of gratitude for the experience. And then you start to get into the analysis of it. I think that will go on for some time.”

She added: “I will stay involved in service. That’s been the trajectory of my whole career. I’m certainly invested in continuing to build the kind of Georgia electorate that I think would be most healthy for our state – a two-party dialogue, one that engages more and more people. I’ll just leave open the possibility of electoral office.”

Many Incoming Lawmakers are Losers

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“Congress is filled with a bunch of losers, but not exactly in the way you’re thinking,” Nathan Gonzales writes.

“In the wake of the elections, it’s easy to second-guess losing candidates and their campaigns, and to discount their chances of ever winning a seat in Congress. But at least 27 incoming House members have electoral losses on their records — more than 40 percent of the new class — and many of them lost contests for the same seat they will represent in the 114th Congress.”

Edwards Comeback Stalled Ahead of Runoff

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A new JMC Analytics and Polling survey in Louisiana’s 6th congressional district finds Rep. Garret Graves (R) with a hefty lead over challenger and former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D), 61% to 35%.

“That lines up fairly well with the results of the Nov. 4 primary, where Graves finished second but split the vote with three other significant Republican candidates. About 65 percent of voters in the primary voted for Republicans, while 35 percent voted for Democrats.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]It’s been 31 years since Edwards bragged, “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” [/speech_bubble]

Second Time as Freshmen

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National Journal: “Like other newly elected members of Congress, Reps. Frank Guinta of New Hampshire and Robert Dold of Illinois have come to Washington early this month for orientation. But the litany of instructions for setting up a new congressional office may be less dizzying for the pair of Republicans—they’re freshmen for the second time.”

“Both Guinta and Dold first came to Washington after the 2010 elections as part of the Republican class that took back the House of Representatives that year. But they lost their reelection attempts in 2012 before launching successful comebacks in 2014, effectively riding two Republican waves into office.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]And there’s a good chance they could lose again in 2016.[/speech_bubble]

Most Don’t Think Midterm Elections Will Change Much

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A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that 76% of Americans say the midterm election won’t substantially change the nation’s direction.

Also interesting: Americans are split almost evenly between positive (41%) and negative (39%) reactions to Republicans controlling both the House and Senate next year.

Said pollster Fred Yang: “While this wave election has changed the composition of Congress and added Republican governors, it has not changed the nation’s psyche or their expectations… It is almost like the election never happened.”

Why Did Republicans Exceed Expectations?

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David Wasserman: “The answer lies less in what Republicans did, and more in what Democratic voters didn’t do: show up to vote in so-called orphan states.”

“To ease my post-election withdrawal, I built a spreadsheet of results in all 435 districts to analyze what happened. What it illustrated: By winning just 52 percent of votes cast for the House, Republicans were able to win 57 percent of all House seats. Thanks in part to favorable redistricting after the 2010 Census, Republicans will likely have won five more seats than they did in 2010, even though Republican candidates won by less of an aggregate vote margin than they did four years ago.”

“The election of a historically large Republican majority coincided with the lowest turnout in a midterm election since 1942. But the 2014 race for the House played out in two very different sets of states. In the 24 states hosting high-profile, competitive Senate or gubernatorial races, raw votes cast in House races were down an average of 30.5 percent from 2012.2 But in the 26 states that weren’t, raw votes were down a much more severe 43.9 percent.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]This is exceptionally good analysis of what happened in the midterm elections.[/speech_bubble]

Quote of the Day

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“I was never going to run away from the president. It was not even in consideration. I support the president. I think the president has been right. I mean, look at the numbers, look at the job growth, sustained job growth—the greatest in American history. The. Greatest. In. American. History. Why didn’t people run on that?”

— Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy (D), quoted by the Daily Beast, on why he was one of the few Democrats who survived the 2014 midterm elections.

A Constant in Midterm and Presidential Elections

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Nathan Gonzales: “There’s plenty of discussion about the difference between midterm and presidential electorates, but there is one emerging constant: the white evangelical vote.”

“In the recent midterm elections, white evangelicals or born-again Christians made up 26 percent of the electorate and voted for Republican candidates 78 percent to 20 percent, according to the National Exit Poll. Two years before in the 2012 presidential election, white evangelicals made up 26 percent of the electorate and voted for Republican Mitt Romney 78 percent to 21 percent over President Barack Obama. And in 2010, white evangelicals made up 25 percent of the electorate and voted for Republican candidates 77 percent to 19 percent.”

Christie To Give Up GOP Governor’s Chairmanship

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “is set to arrive in Florida on Tuesday to wrap up his yearlong job as Republican Governors Association chairman, a position that brought national visibility to the potential 2016 contender,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The conference comes on the heels of Republicans picking up four gubernatorial seats in a particularly strong showing during the midterm elections. The GOP now controls 31 governor’s seats, a high last reached in 1998.”

Brown Keeps Raising Money After Landslide Victory

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“Less than two weeks after winning a fourth term,” California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) “plans to collect more money for his reelection committee Monday at a Sacramento reception with lobbyists and their clients,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The event is unusual. Typically, candidates who continue to raise money after being elected do so to retire campaign debt. But Brown, who coasted to reelection, appears to have none to repay. As of Oct. 18, the governor still had nearly $21 million in his reelection account, according to the committee’s most recent finance statement.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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