Politico: “The 2014 Republican landslide has both parties poring over the data, hoping to glean insights about the current state of the electorate before the 2016 elections. But it might take until the next presidential cycle to answer the most pressing question: Is Republicans’ 2014 success the result of significant changes in how voters view the two parties, or is the structural difference between the electorates in presidential and midterm years so great that Democrats still maintain a strong demographic advantage going into 2016?”
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises
Big Money Politics Gets Even Bigger
“The 100 biggest campaign donors gave $323 million in 2014 — almost as much as the $356 million given by the estimated 4.75 million people who gave $200 or less,” Politico reports.
“And the balance almost certainly would tip far in favor of the mega-donors were the analysis to include nonprofit groups that spent at least $219 million — and likely much more — but aren’t required to reveal their donors’ identities.”
The Best and Worst of 2014 Politics
David Weigel puts together a very good list.
2014 Moments Likely to Impact 2016
The Wall Street Journal lists 10 events from the last year which are likely to impact the 2016 presidential race.
40 Interesting Facts About the Midterm Elections
A great read from our good friends at the Cook Political Report.
Republicans Win Another Seat in Arizona
Martha McSally (R) has officially defeated Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ) after a protracted recount in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district reaffirmed her lead, Roll Call reports.
“MsSally won the seat by 167 votes, picking up six votes after the recount, according to a source with knowledge of the final count. Democratic operatives said Barber plans to concede and will not file a challenge to the results.”
McConnell Ran 61 Different Ads
Cook Political Report: “To win re-election in 2012, President Obama’s targeting-savvy campaign aired 143 unique commercials across more than a dozen states. To win re-election in 2014, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) aired 61 unique ads across Kentucky.”
Landrieu Says She Won’t Run Again
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) “pretty much dismissed any notion that she would run again for governor, the Senate or any other public office,” Politico reports.
Said Landrieu: “Oh Lord, no. Well, let me say, I’m not going to say a definite ‘no’ about any of those two. I’ve been trained to never say no. But it is highly, highly unlikely.”
10 Governors Don’t Have Majority Support
Smart Politics: “As a result of these competitive contests, caused in party by strong showings from several third party and independent candidates, 10 winning candidates will remain in or take office in the coming weeks without the support of the majority of the electorate.”
“Plurality winners in the 2014 cycle are independent Bill Walker of Alaska (48.1 percent), Democrats John Hickenlooper of Colorado (49.3 percent), David Ige of Hawaii (49.5 percent), John Kitzhaber of Oregon (48.9 percent), Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island (40.7 percent), and Peter Schumlin of Vermont (46.4 percent), and Republicans Rick Scott of Florida (48.1 percent), Sam Brownback of Kansas (49.9 percent), Paul LePage of Maine (48.2 percent), and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts (48.4 percent).”
Reid Blames Obamacare Rollout for Democratic Losses
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) told Politico that it was the bungled website and the rollout of the Affordable Care Act last fall that cost Democrats the majority and gave Republicans “ammunition to go after all of my candidates” — nothing else.
Said Reid: “We never recovered from the Obamacare rollout. I’m not going to beat up on Obama. The rollout didn’t go well. We never recovered from that.”
Asked about the lessons he drew from the losses, Reid paused for a second and said: “Have a better rollout of Obamacare.”
Senate Democrats Have $20 Million in Debt
An Era of Parliamentary Elections in the U.S.
Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D-LA) defeat “is another reminder we have entered a period of parliamentary elections, where the parties stand for starkly different ideological agendas and where ticket-splitting, which follows from individual evaluations apart from party, is relatively rare,” Stu Rothenberg reports.
“In the end, the ‘Landrieu brand’ in Louisiana did not matter any more than the Pryor brand mattered in Arkansas or the Begich brand mattered in Alaska. Party labels mattered far more than the individual names of the candidates. Voters in all three states saw the incumbents’ Democratic label, and that made their decisions easy.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think we really have to take into consideration that based on some of the modeling and the national mood last cycle … we could have lost 20 or more seats. The team we had in place … kept that to 13. As we’re moving into all of this, that’s something to build off of.”
— DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), quoted by National Journal, arguing that Democrats don’t need to make major changes.
GOP Now Holds At Least 246 House Seats
“Republicans will hold at least 246 House seats come January, according to election results Saturday, giving the GOP a commanding majority that matches the party’s post-World War II high during Democratic President Harry S. Truman’s administration,” the AP reports.
“The GOP retained control of two seats in runoffs in Louisiana, expanding the advantage for Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, who can afford defections from his increasingly conservative caucus and still get legislation passed… The latest count gives the GOP a 246-188 majority. One race, in Arizona, is still outstanding.”
Cassidy Beats Landrieu Easily
Bill Cassidy (R) soundly defeated Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in the U.S. Senate runoff in Louisiana, 54% to 42%, the New Orleans Times Picayune reports.
“Cassidy rode a wave of Republican support that swept the nation during the midterm elections. Voters in Louisiana were angry with President Obama and his policies, particularly the Affordable Care Act. Cassidy used Landrieu’s vote for the law against her to motive people to oust her from office.”
Landrieu Claims She Didn’t Vote for Obama
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) slipped and told a radio host that she did not vote for President Obama, The Hill reports.
Said Landrieu: “I voted for the Affordable Care Act, I did not vote for Obama.”
Landrieu Headed for Historic Defeat
Harry Enten: “William Thompson of Kansas and Wesley Jones of Washington are former U.S. senators — you get a pass for not recognizing them, they’ve been dead for more than 80 years. But if you’ll be watching Saturday’s Senate runoff between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, remember their names. These senators sustained the greatest margin of defeat for an elected incumbent (not running on a third-party ticket after a primary defeat) since the direct election of senators began in the early 1900s. Thompson lost by 30 percentage points in 1918, and Jones by 28 points in 1932.”
“Landrieu probably won’t overtake Thompson and Jones, but she could be headed toward a top 10 historic defeat. The FiveThirtyEight model projects her losing the runoff 99.8 percent of the time, and by a 57.8 percent to 42.2 percent margin.”
Last Act of the 2014 Midterms
Jeff Zeleny: “The Republican midterm election march has one more act, with the Louisiana Senate runoff on Saturday. To say that Democrats have thrown in the towel would be an understatement. The Iraqi Army fled Mosul slower than Democrats abandoned Mary Landrieu in the wake of the November thumping in Senate races across the country. If Bill Cassidy wins this weekend, Republicans will hold a 54-seat majority in the Senate, which is more muscular than Mitch McConnell had dreamed only months ago. It’s not the 60 votes needed to fully run the table, but there are six moderate and independents to help reach that threshold on some popular red-state issues.”
Meanwhile, David Wasserman attempts to quantify the most and least impressive campaigns of 2014.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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