Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
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Jonathan Bernstein: “The bottom line is that candidates just aren’t all that important to general election outcomes, especially at the presidential level. Most voters stick with their party; most independents are actually partisans; and most true independents tend to be swayed far more by ‘fundamentals’ such as the state of the economy than they are by the candidates’ personalities or campaign styles.”
“It doesn’t seem that way because U.S. political culture supports voting for the person, not the party, and so people not only are reluctant to say that they’re just knee-jerk voting for Democrats or Republicans but actually don’t think they’re doing so. And to most of us, it seems that we’re considering candidates individually and voting for the one we like the best. But it (almost always) ain’t so.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s team thinks the redistricting push could give his presidential ambitions a big boost, as he shows an angry Democratic base that he’s actually fighting back against Republicans in power, CNN reports.
But the Los Angeles Times notes there are big risks too if the special election fails in November.
Aaron Rupar and Noah Berlatsky: “Democrats have found their fight. Newsom is leading the charge.”
“Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is taking a gamble that other potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are not: that party voters might reward her — or at least not punish her — for working with President Trump,” Axios reports.
“Whitmer’s approach is a sharp break from other prominent Democrats such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who are defining themselves as anti-Trump warriors.”
“Whitmer has visited the White House three times this year — most recently this month, when she met with Trump to discuss tariffs, Medicaid funding and northern Michigan’s recovery efforts from a spring ice storm.”
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. declared he is not running for president in 2028.
Said Kennedy: “Let me be clear: I am not running for president in 2028. My loyalty is to President Trump and the mission we’ve started.”
Politico: “Across the still-forming field, ambitious Democrats are reevaluating their positions and staking out their territory.”
Mehdi Hasan: “I’ve been skeptical of a Stewart presidential candidacy in the past… But I am coming around to the idea.”
“Many Democrats left House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ annual California fundraising event last week convinced Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is running for president,” Axios reports.
“Democrats lapped up the message from the two-term governor, who told big dollar donors and vulnerable House Democrats that the key to winning over Trump voters is staying true to your values.”
Vogue: Andy Beshear has won (and won again) in Trump country. What’s next?
“Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin rubbed shoulders with major donors at the South Carolina Republican Party’s annual Silver Elephant fundraiser, fueling intrigue around a possible run for president in 2028,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.
Associated Press: “Wyden is in his fifth decade in Congress and showing no inclination to step aside even as pressure builds on aging Democratic officeholders to give way to a new generation. He says he plans to seek another term in 2028, when he will be 79 years old.”
“After a recent town hall in Wasco in conservative Sherman County, Wyden said questions about age are ‘fair game for debate’ but that he is still up to the job and the fight against Republican President Donald Trump’s policies.”
Steve Bannon is in the early stages of planning an audacious run for president in 2028, the Daily Mail reports.
CNN: “The vice president has tended to get involved in key priorities right as they reach their thorniest points, relying on his close ties to Trump and relationships across the GOP to manage relations on Capitol Hill, play peacemaker within the administration and serve as an envoy to the president’s broader MAGA base.”
“The expansive role has thrust Vance into the center of a series of issues that could determine the trajectory of Trump’s presidency and the fate of his own future presidential ambitions.”
“Former Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to sell her upcoming book through the joint committee her campaign team ran with the Democratic National Committee,” Axios reports.
“Last weekend, Harris’ team sent a promotional email about the book, 107 Days, that was paid for by the Harris Victory Fund — a collaboration between her presidential campaign, the DNC and state Democratic parties.”
“Harris is a potential 2028 presidential candidate, and the party apparatus is supposed to be neutral in how it deals with possible contenders.”
President Trump said that Vice President J.D. Vance was “most likely” to succeed him as the leader of the MAGA movement, in what appeared to be his strongest public backing for Mr. Vance’s political future, the New York Times reports.
Said Trump: “Well, I think most likely, in all fairness. He’s the vice president.”
He also suggested that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was “somebody that maybe would get together with JD” on a Republican ticket.
“President Donald Trump says he’d like to run for a third term but is unlikely to pursue one,” USA Today reports.
“This is his firmest indication yet that he is not looking to change or bypass the Constitutional limit set out in the 22nd Amendment to compete for president in 2028.”
CBS News: What has Trump said about seeking a third term?
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green (D) said he is considering a 2028 campaign for president, with a possible platform of healing the nation after the bitterly divisive era of American politics that has consumed the country, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.
Said Green: “Among governors, I think there are probably eight to 10 of us who are elevating in the public dialogue. I haven’t made up my mind about what the future holds. I would be honored to help whomever. I might even become a potential candidate, but only if I’ve actually done a good job.”
“Recently, I made the decision that, for now, I don’t want to go back in the system. I think it’s broken. I always believed that as fragile as our democracy is, our systems would be strong enough to defend our most fundamental principles and I think right now, they’re not as strong as they need to be.”
— Kamala Harris, talking to Stephen Colbert.
Democratic strategist David Axelrod on Wednesday said former Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be preparing for another White House bid after last year’s November loss, The Hill reports.
Said Axelrod: “She will begin as the polling leader in any race for president just by dint of having been the nominee the last time. But a lot of Democrats want to turn the page on all of that and look forward, and so it‘s not going to be easy for her.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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