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November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

U.S. Talks to Venezuela About Major Stake in Oil Fields

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“The U.S. is in talks with Venezuela to take a large stake in its oil fields, a dramatic move by the Trump administration to extend its influence on the post-Maduro government and the nation’s vast energy reserves,” Bloomberg reports.

“Negotiators from both countries are discussing the plan, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Some of them said a possible arrangement that has been discussed is a 100-year-lease on several oilfields.”

Trump Urges Americans to Accept High Gas Prices

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“President Donald Trump is urging Americans to accept higher gasoline prices while the conflict with Iran continues,” NewsNation reports.

“He told a political rally in New York Friday that paying ‘a tiny little bit more for your gasoline’ is worth the cost of ensuring ‘a very evil country’ could not have a nuclear weapon, one of the president’s stated rationales for the war.”

Gulf States Accept a New Normal in Hormuz

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“Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The problem is they worry the alternative—going back to war—would be worse.”

“The conundrum highlights how the war has unleashed a more antagonistic Iran and left a region that is vital to the world’s energy security with no good option for countering it.”

Trump Has a Growing Oil Problem

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“Oil has Trump over a political barrel ahead of the midterms,” Politico reports.

“As the latest phase of the Iran war drags on, without either resolution or significant escalation, the rising cost of oil remains Republicans’ greatest liability heading into the fall — combining the war’s unpopularity and enduring cost-of-living concerns into one package for Democrats to hammer the party in power.”

“Today, U.S. oil prices once again spiked past $80 a barrel after hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal pushed them lower last week. Brent crude, the global benchmark, reached roughly $85 a barrel. And the Energy Department said the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has now dipped below 300 million barrels — hitting its lowest level since 1983… after Trump released lots of domestic oil to try to blunt the Hormuz impact.”

Scott Bessent Says Deal to Reopen Strait Is Imminent

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“The U.S. Treasury secretary signaled Washington and Tehran could reach a deal over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, sending the oil price 4 percent lower,” the Financial Times reports.

Said Scott Bessent: ‘There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”

Bloomberg: Bessent suggests U.S.-Iran Hormuz deal possible in coming days.

Trump Hits Exxon, Chevron for Making Too Much Money

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“President Donald Trump scolded ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. for their soaring profits, as oil prices surged amid the war in Iran he launched in February alongside Israel,” Bloomberg reports.

“Trump on Monday said the biggest U.S. oil companies are ‘making too much money,’ urging them to ‘give some of that back to the public’ and cut retail gasoline prices.”

Washington Post: Why Trump is lashing out at Chevron amid profit windfall.

Big Oil Reaps Rewards From the Chaos in Energy Markets

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“America’s largest oil companies reported a blockbuster quarter after the Iran war caused a historic dislocation in global markets that sent energy prices soaring,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“At ExxonMobil profits more than doubled from a year earlier to their highest level since 2022, while Chevron reported its highest quarterly earnings on record.”

Financial Times: Chevron and Exxon earnings soar as Trump threatens price interventions.

Iran War Shows China Role in Setting the Price of Oil

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“The Iran war has revealed China’s enormous power over global oil prices, thanks to its position as the world’s largest buyer,” Axios reports.

“China’s reaction to the oil shock — by substantially withdrawing from buying on world markets — helped prevent the worst of the price spikes that experts thought would follow from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Few expected that China could maintain this low level of oil buying without deeply damaging its domestic economy. But as the war approaches its sixth month, China has done just that.”

Big Oil Is Raking in Billions From the Iran War

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Wall Street Journal: “Thanks to U.S. crude prices averaging $95 a barrel between March and June—up from about $66 before the Iran war—ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum are expected to collectively rake in some $31 billion in earnings for the second quarter of the year, according to FactSet estimates. That is up from about $12 billion for the same period last year.”

“The cash bonanza is bound to fuel mounting tensions between the industry and its White House ally as the conflict in the Middle East expands and gasoline prices have risen past $4 a gallon.”

Senators Reach Deal On Russia Sanctions Bill

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“A bipartisan group of senators announced a deal Tuesday on long-awaited legislation to allow President Donald Trump to impose more restrictions on major buyers of Russian energy,” Bloomberg reports.

“The bill extends penalties on Iran and singles out Russian gas and oil exports, empowering the president to target the top five buyers of Russian crude and natural with tariffs, as well as the top five countries aiding Russia’s energy sanctions evasion, according to text released Tuesday.”

Leaked Document Reveals White House Nuclear Waste Plan

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“The White House is pushing Congress to break a decades-long impasse around the handling of nuclear waste and entice states to get on board,” Politico reports.

“The Trump administration is seeking changes to federal law to allow the Department of Energy to partner with states willing to store waste generated at the nation’s nuclear reactors.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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