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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Afghan Candidate Will Concede Only if Vote Total is Kept Secret

September 20, 2014 · 12:38 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Abdullah Abdullah will concede defeat in Afghanistan’s elections and “agree on the formation of a national unity government only if election authorities do not publicly disclose their now-completed final tally,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Abdullah contends that the recent audit of the fraud-ridden election could not possibly detect all the fake ballots, so the final result should not be announced despite the legal requirement to do so.”

Foreign Elections

Scotland Votes Down Independence

September 19, 2014 · 6:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Scotland has voted to stay in the United Kingdom after voters decisively rejected independence,” the BBC reports.

“UK Prime Minister David Cameron said he was delighted the UK would remain together and said the commitments on extra powers would be honoured. Mr Cameron said the three main unionist parties at Westminster would now follow through with their pledge of more powers for the Scottish Parliament.”

Foreign Elections

Scotland Votes on Independence

September 18, 2014 · 9:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

The BBC rounds up the final polls and explains why polling a “yes” or “no” question is not as easy as it seems.

Carl Bialik: “For the election junkies who want to watch results as they come in, I’ve put together a guide to how early Friday morning could unfold: when the 32 local councils can be expected to report their constituents’ vote counts, what percentage of the electorate each area represents, and which way voters from each area can be expected to lean.”

Foreign Elections

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 18, 2014 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I have to say that after the events I’ve been facing over the past few days, assassination would be a welcome release.”

— British Prime Minister David Cameron, quoted by National Review.

Foreign Elections

Opponents of Independent Scotland Hold Slight Lead

September 17, 2014 · 7:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Scottish supporters of staying in the United Kingdom are 4 percentage points ahead of secessionists with just a day to go before Scots vote in an independence referendum, three different opinion polls showed,” Reuters reports.

“The United Kingdom’s fate remains uncertain as the three surveys – from pollsters ICM, Opinium and Survation – showed support for Scottish independence at 48 percent compared to 52 percent backing union.”

Foreign Elections

Cameron Warns Scotland Ahead of Vote

September 16, 2014 · 7:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

British Prime Minister David Cameron warned Scotland that citzens vote for independence on Thursday “there’s no going back from this, no rerun,” the New York Times reports.

Said Cameron: “If Scotland votes yes, the U.K. will split, and we will go our separate ways forever. Independence would not be a trial separation, it would be a painful divorce.”

Meanwhile, the leaders of the three main British political parties renewed a pledge to grant Scots “extensive new powers” if they reject secession.

Foreign Elections

Polls in Scotland on Independence Too Close to Call

September 13, 2014 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A series of tight polls ahead of an independence referendum next week suggests Scots might well make a momentous decision to secede from the United Kingdom,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“That reflects a surge of pro-independence fervor in the past several weeks. But aggregations of recent survey data still give the ‘no’ camp, which favors remaining in the U.K., a modest lead, and enough voters are undecided–and divining their intentions is sufficiently difficult–that the outcome of the ballot is too close to call. ”

Foreign Elections

Ford Drops Mayoral Race

September 12, 2014 · 1:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has ended his re-election bid but his brother, Councillor Doug Ford, is replacing him in the mayoral race, the Toronto Star reports.

“Rob Ford was polling, after a chaotic, scandal-filled term, in second place, behind John Tory but ahead of Olivia Chow, when stomach pain sent him to the hospital Wednesday. The head of his health-care team at Mount Sinai Hospital told reporters Thursday that Ford has a ‘fair size’ mass in his abdomen.”

Foreign Elections

Slight Majority Leans Against Independent Scotland

September 11, 2014 · 7:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Survation poll in Scotland suggests 53% will vote in a referendum next week to stay in the United Kingdom while 47% will vote for independence.

Foreign Elections

Supporters of Scottish Independence Take Lead

September 8, 2014 · 6:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new YouGov poll finds “supporters of Scottish independence from Britain have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, indicating a real possibility that they might win.”

“With less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 18 vote, the poll put the ‘Yes’ to independence campaign on 51% against ‘no’ camp on 49%, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist campaign in just a month.”

Foreign Elections

Le Pen Would Beat Hollande in Runoff

September 6, 2014 · 6:57 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new poll finds far right candidate Marine Le Pen would defeat French President Francois Hollande in a runoff by eight points, 54% to 46%.

“The survey confirmed earlier polls showing Le Pen leading all other contenders in the first round. But it was the first time she had been shown ahead of a mainstream candidate in the second round – a scenario regarded to date as unrealistic.”

Foreign Elections

Majority Still Opposed to Scottish Independence

September 2, 2014 · 8:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new YouGov poll finds support for Scottish independence has risen eight points in a month.

The No camp are now six points ahead of the Yes campaign, 53% to 47%, down from 14 points in mid-August and 22 points early last month, excluding undecided voters.

Foreign Elections

British Intelligence Identifies Man Who Beheaded Journalist

August 25, 2014 · 7:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“British intelligence said a London rapper who traveled to Syria last year to fight with Islamist militants is suspected of beheading American journalist James Foley last week,” USA Today reports.

“British intelligence agencies MI5 and MI6 identified the killer and named Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary, 24, as a key suspect… Abdel Bary, also known as L Jinny or Lyricist Jinn in London, left a budding music career that included appearances on BBC Radio in 2012.”

Foreign Elections

Iraq’s Politics Spins Out of Control Too

August 11, 2014 · 8:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Special forces teams and army tanks surrounded the Green Zone housing Iraq’s government as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fiercely clung to power Sunday, taking the stability of the country to the brink at a moment when it is already facing a lethal challenge from radical Islamist fighters,” the Washington Post reports.

“In actions that had all the markings of a political coup, Maliki gave a defiant late-night speech in Baghdad saying he would lodge a legal case against the country’s president, who has resisted naming him as the candidate for another term as prime minister.”

Wall Street Journal: “Iraq’s brewing political crisis headed toward confrontation after the country’s president named Haider Al Abadi as the country’s next prime minister, according to state-run media.”

Foreign Elections

Turkey’s Premier Will Expand Power from New Post

August 10, 2014 · 7:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led Turkey for more than a decade, is set to become the country’s first popularly elected president, apparently cruising to a victory on Sunday that positioned him to be the dominant political figure here for at least five more years,” the New York Times reports.

“The news media declared the victory even though official results will not be published for several days. It came after the most tumultuous year of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure in national politics, when he was challenged by sweeping antigovernment protests and a corruption investigation focused on him and those around him. He has emerged not only as a survivor but as someone who, analysts predict, will look to expand his power from the office of the presidency.”

Foreign Elections

Populist Declared Winner in Indonesia

July 22, 2014 · 11:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Joko Widodo, the governor of Jakarta whose common touch has made him a political phenomenon, was declared the winner of Indonesia’s presidential election on Tuesday, completing an improbable ascent from child of the slums to leader of the world’s fourth most populous nation,” the New York Times reports.

“But the announcement, while widely expected, did not end a simmering controversy, as his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, a retired army general, rejected the results as fraudulent and threatened to withdraw from the race.”

Foreign Elections

Rival Claims in Indonesian Election

July 9, 2014 · 7:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jakarta governor Joko Widodo “claimed victory Wednesday in a closely fought Indonesian presidential election, but his rival disputed the unofficial vote count and refused to concede defeat,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Mr. Widodo, who saw his once-commanding lead in opinion polls evaporate in recent months, declared that he won based on unofficial vote tallies by independent organizations that showed him with a lead of 3-6 percentage points. Those organizations had been roughly accurate in using quick counts of a sampling of polling stations to predict results of April legislative elections. But Prabowo Subianto, a former army general from the era of authoritarian ruler Suharto, claimed that he had won a mandate and refused to concede. His camp said pollsters used by his campaign indicated he likely won by 4-5 percentage points.”

Foreign Elections

Tight Indonesian Race Sparks Unrest Fears

July 8, 2014 · 8:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Up to 190 million Indonesians will cast ballots in a tightly contested presidential race Wednesday, with questions mounting about whether one candidate can win convincingly enough to stave off vote challenges and unrest over ambiguous results,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Pollsters say the race is too close to call between candidates with starkly different leadership styles and backgrounds: Jakarta Gov. Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, a former army general under the late authoritarian ruler Suharto.”

Foreign Elections

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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