Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
Russell Berman: “Trump’s move to open this new front in a centuries-old gerrymandering war between the parties looks like an enormous tactical blunder.”
“Republicans have appeared taken aback by the ferocity with which Democrats have responded—and the speed with which they’ve set aside their drive to ban gerrymandering in the name of good government.”
Playbook: “Though Florida appears to be the largest redistricting battleground left on the map, one of the biggest wild cards in the redistricting saga is still on the table. That’s when the Supreme Court might decide to take a hammer to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which would allow red Southern states to hypothetically redraw Black- and Hispanic-majority blue districts.”
“But the window for such an action to come in time to impact this year’s midterms has all but closed. Even if a decision in Louisiana v. Callais came on the next decision day, two Southern states have already held primaries, and the candidate filing deadline in every state but Florida has passed.”
“Could those state legislatures call special sessions, redraw maps, reopen filing periods, push back primaries and ultimately give the GOP a slight edge in the redistricting wars? In some cases, yes. But the havoc that would create for voters, election workers, campaigns and lawmakers would be difficult to justify.”
“Buyer’s remorse is hitting House Republicans over their mid-cycle redistricting war — a strategy meant to protect their majority that’s now deeply in danger of backfiring,” Axios reports.
“What began as an effort to create more GOP-controlled seats — and avoid a Democratic takeover that would weaken President Trump — now could be a wash, or even add to Democrats’ edge.”
Wall Street Journal: “Republicans are increasingly worried that a battle President Trump started last summer to redraw congressional district lines has backfired and may hand more seats to Democrats.”
New York Times: With GOP in dismay, redistricting fight turns to Florida and the courtroom.
For members: Redistricting Fight Leaves Republicans Exposed
“Senior Republicans in Washington are ramping up the pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to redraw his state’s US House map after Virginia Democrats flipped potentially four seats in their favor,” CNN reports.
“With just six months until the midterms, Republicans see Florida as their last major chance to make gains in the redistricting war President Donald Trump launched last summer. They hope to pick up as many as three seats in the Sunshine State, which would give Republicans back their slight advantage from redistricting, though much smaller than they’d once hoped.”
“With Tuesday’s referendum passing in Virginia, Democrats are estimated to have drawn 10 seats in their favor nationwide compared to the Republicans’ nine.”
“President Donald Trump’s political team is defending its push to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, a break from historical practice that provoked partisan retaliation, cost hundreds of millions of dollars and, so far, has left Republicans no better positioned to retain the House,” the Washington Post reports.
“Our message to Florida Republicans is fuck around and find out. If they go down the road of a Desantis dummymander, they’ll find themselves in the same situation as Texas Republicans. They started this war. And we’re gonna finish it.”
— House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), speaking to reporters.
Member feature
Read the rest of this column
Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.
Already a member? Sign in
Member feature
Read the rest of this column
Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.
Already a member? Sign in
Punchbowl News: “It’s fair to say that, at this point, Republicans have lost the redistricting wars that they started last year in Texas at Trump’s urging. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is the winner.”
Said Jeffries: “I told Mike Johnson in July of last year that, ‘If you go down this road, it’s not going to work out for you.’”
More Jeffries on his warning to Johnson: “And at the end of the day, his best-case scenario was that he would net zero seats, but force at least 10 Republicans, who are incumbent members of his conference, into premature retirement. And that is exactly what has happened.”
Playbook: “Important caveat: This isn’t (quite) over yet. The Virginia decision could yet be nullified by the state Supreme Court in the coming weeks — though even plugged-in Republicans admit the chances are slim.”
“After a narrow loss in Virginia, Republicans are pointing fingers as President Donald Trump’s national gerrymandering fight slips into a stalemate,” Politico reports.
“Multiple Republicans say the party should’ve spent much more, much earlier to have a better shot at blocking Democrats’ Virginia map, which could give the party as many as four more House seats. And pressure is now growing on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to make up for Democrats’ gains with a GOP-led redistricting effort in his state, as soon as next week.”
“Virginia voters approved a referendum to draw new congressional districts that could add as many as four Democratic seats to the House of Representatives, awarding Democrats an advantage in the national redistricting war begun by Republicans,” the Washington Post reports.
New York Times: “The victory by Democrats in Virginia brings the national redistricting war roughly to a draw, effectively blunting the advantage Republicans built last year when they redrew maps for a partisan edge in Texas and other states.”
“Beyond the red-versus-blue calculations, the vote is likely to further buoy Democrats as they seek to capitalize on President Trump’s low approval ratings and the unpopular war with Iran.”
Virginians went to the polls to decide the fate of the high-stakes redistricting referendum that could tip the scales toward Democrats in the race for control of the House in the midterms.
Most polls suggested it could be close.
Leave your reactions in the comments as the results come in.
Virginia voters head to the polls today for a high-stakes ballot measure that could reshape the state’s congressional map and potentially shift the balance of power in Washington, CNN reports.
Supporters say it’s a necessary response to aggressive Donald Trump-ordered redistricting in other states. Opponents call it blatant partisanship
ABC News: In Virginia redistricting election, 4 House seats at stake as voters go to the polls.
“For most of American history, gerrymandering was a behind-the-scenes affair, taking place in the quintessential ‘smoke-filled rooms‘ where political heavyweights carved up the country to best suit their own fortunes. Voters remained largely in the dark,” the New York Times reports.
“That has changed in a remarkable way over the past year.”
“The bare-knuckle fight over redistricting between Democrats and Republicans, started last year by President Trump and the G.O.P. in Texas, has made gerrymandering a top national story that is set to play an important role in the midterm elections.”
“And in two states — California last year and Virginia tomorrow — voters have been given a rare opportunity to decide their own gerrymandered fate.”
New York Times: “Virginia voters could be forgiven for wondering where Barack Obama stands on gerrymandering.”
“The former president is appearing in videos and ads pushing Virginians to vote ‘Yes’ on a Democratic-backed referendum next week on whether to redraw the state’s House map to give the party more seats. But the Republican-backed ‘No’ side is running TV ads that highlight his past opposition to partisan gerrymandering.”
“The dueling Obama ads have confused voters, according to the referendum’s Democratic supporters, who have grown increasingly anxious about the vote in the final days before Election Day on Tuesday.”
“Massive amounts of money are flowing into Virginia’s redistricting referendum as Democrats and Republicans from across the nation wrestle for control of the House of Representatives, but the identities of individual contributors — and their agendas — remain cloaked in secrecy,” the Washington Post reports.
“About 95 percent of the total $93 million raised so far in Virginia, as of a Monday night filing deadline, came from nonprofit groups not required to disclose their donors.”
A new State Navigate survey finds Virginia Democrats’ early gerrymandering ballot measure narrowly ahead by 5 percentage points.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) “is considering delaying the state’s April 20 special session for redistricting,” Punchbowl News reports.
“Florida state lawmakers are scheduled to head to Tallahassee next week to pass a new congressional map for the Sunshine State. DeSantis is expected to redraw the Florida congressional map to add between two and five new red seats, a huge plus for Republicans in the national redistricting battle.”
“Now, DeSantis is mulling whether to push the special session back until after the results of the April 21 redistricting referendum in Virginia.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
More about Taegan Goddard →