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25 posts · Wednesday
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Donald Trump way ahead of the GOP presidential field with 25%, followed by Jeb Bush back at just 12%.
Key finding: “The five-day rolling online poll had Trump at 15% among Republicans on Friday before he rocketed to 24.9% on Tuesday.“
Donald Trump “may be leading in the polls for the GOP presidential primary, but former Texas Governor Rick Perry knows how he can beat his rival candidate. Asked about Trump’s critique of his candidacy, Perry challenged Trump to a pull-up contest,” Time reports.
Said Perry: “Let’s get a pull-up bar out here and see who can do more pull-ups.”
Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ), “who heads an influential House subcommittee overseeing the U.S. capital markets, is facing a revolt by corporate and Wall Street donors after he reportedly made anti-gay remarks at a private meeting of Republican lawmakers,” Bloomberg reports.
“Earlier this month, in what financial lobbyists said was a sign of things to come, the Big 4 accounting firms and their trade association abruptly canceled a fundraising event for the New Jersey Republican. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has decided to stop making political action committee donations to Garrett.”
Washington Post: “The summer canvassing is part of a mission that consumes the political network backed by the billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch that plans to spend $889 million in the run-up to the 2016 elections. The network’s resources are financing a host of activities… But one of the prime objectives could have a direct impact on Election Day 2016: to create a permanent ground force powered by a vast trove of data, replicating the kind of infrastructure that helped President Obama win reelection.”
“Already, roughly 1,000 full-time staffers are working for Koch network organizations such as AFP, Concerned Veterans for America and the Libre Initiative — more than double the number four years ago, according to officials.”
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for president of the United States, NBC News reports.
His entry into the 2016 race makes him the 17th major Republican candidate for president.
Nate Silver: “Despite what you may have read elsewhere — or heard from the man himself — Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he’s in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure… Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are barely better than break-even: 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Among the 17 Republican candidates, Trump’s net favorable rating, +4, ranks 13th, ahead of only Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki.”
“And yet, in these same polls, Trump is the first choice of an average of 20 percent of Republican voters — the highest in the field, ahead of Scott Walker (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (12 percent).”
A new St. Pete Polls survey in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP poll with 26%, followed by Jeb Bush at 20%, Scott Walker at 12%, Marco Rubio at 10% and Ben Carson at 5%.
“I’m confident as we get into this fall, we’re gonna have pretty smooth sailing.”
— Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by The Hill, on the packed schedule facing lawmakers when they return from August recess.
Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) “brushed off a challenge to his leadership from Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC), but not without showing some irritation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Boehner: “We’ve got a member here, a member there, who are off the reservation. No big deal.”
“But Mr. Boehner displayed flashes of annoyance when asked if the House should vote on the Meadows resolution. The provision must go through the House Rules Committee, where the members are chosen by Mr. Boehner and aren’t obligated to advance it.”
“One of the Illinois GOP’s premiere fundraisers has called on U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., to abandon his re-election race, saying it likely is unwinnable. The statement is spurring a flurry of phone calls and activity among worried Republicans,” according to Crain’s Chicago Business.
Said Ron Gidwidz: “His misstatements put him and the Illinois Republican Party in too much of a defensive position. I do not believe he will be a U.S. senator in 2017 and, as top of the ticket, he could cause collateral damage (to other Republican candidates). I call on him to step aside and allow other Republicans to seek his seat.”
Greg Sargent: “Hillary Clinton has signaled that she hopes to run for president in part by painting the GOP-controlled Congress — and, by extension, the Republican Party — as a divisive, destructive, hidebound, reactionary force… And it looks as if the GOP Congress is set to hand Clinton a lot more material.”
“The recent period of calm (relative, of course) in Congress has perhaps led people to forget just how crazy things are going to get this fall.”
Politico: “Lawmakers have teed up a hellish final few months of 2015, as a series of high-stakes deadlines looms on everything from keeping the government open to doling out money for roads and then, for good measure, raising the federal government’s borrowing limit. It promises to be a major test of the Republican Party’s ability to govern as the GOP prepares to ask voters to continue one-party control of Congress…”
“Next week’s Republican presidential debate in Cleveland marks not only the inaugural formal gathering of the expansive GOP field but the start of a new and unpredictable chapter in an already raucous 2016 race,” the Washington Post reports.
“Under the bright studio lights on the shores of Lake Erie on Aug. 6, ambitions will be showcased, positions staked, and Donald Trump, who has consumed the summer’s political headlines, will finally be confronted, face to face, by his rivals.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) leading Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 36%.
“There’s more bad news for Kirk: His approval rating has dropped to 25%.”
Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA) and four associates were indicted Wednesday on racketeering charges “involving several schemes that were intended to further the political and financial interests” of them all, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
A Smart Politics analysis finds there are 16 U.S. Senators who currently serve states with a majority of its U.S. House seats held by the opposing political party; only one of these 16 is a Republican – Mark Kirk of Illinois.
Over the last eight cycles dating back to 2000, only 14 Republicans have been elected to the U.S. Senate from states in which the opposing party won a majority of U.S. House seats that cycle.
“The Koch brothers are freezing out Donald Trump from their influential political operation — denying him access to their state-of-the-art data and refusing to let him speak to their gatherings of grass-roots activists or major donors,” Politico reports.
“Despite a long and cordial relationship between the real estate showman and David Koch, as well as a raft of former Koch operatives who are now running Trump’s presidential campaign, the Koch political operation appears to have concluded that Trump is the wrong standard-bearer for the GOP.”
“If you’re getting high in Colorado today, enjoy it. As of January 2017, I will enforce the federal laws.”
— Gov. Chris Christie (R), quoted by Politico.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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