Political Wire

Archives for December 2015

Supreme Court Blocks Hawaiian Vote

· 29 Comments

“A closely divided Supreme Court on Wednesday temporarily blocked Hawaii from counting votes in an election open only to descendants of its indigenous people, who were selecting delegates to an assembly that would propose greater self-government for Native Hawaiians, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Polls 60 Days Out Aren’t Very Helpful

· 13 Comments

Alfred Tuchfarber: “Bottom line, the national polls are very poor predictors of primary/caucus results. While the state polls are better, they are still faced with the very difficult task of basing their predictions on what is at best an artful guess as to which individuals in the samples will actually vote.”

“The current polls almost surely do not provide a good read on the winners of the early February contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rather than relying on these polls to handicap the races, an eclectic multi-factor approach is necessary. That analysis needs to take into account history, candidate strengths and weaknesses, money, ground games, likely turnout, intensity of support, and interest in the election, among other factors.”

Behind McConnell’s Effort to Win Over Cruz

· 19 Comments

“Mitch McConnell is close to pulling off a feat that at first seemed impossible: Coax Ted Cruz and antagonistic conservative groups to back his strategy to repeal Obamacare,” Politico reports.

“For weeks, Cruz, a 2016 GOP presidential candidate and chief McConnell nemesis, and conservative Sens. Mike Lee and Marco Rubio threatened to vote against a House-passed bill dismantling the health care law… Now, nearly a dozen GOP sources say Cruz and Rubio are almost certain to support the bill that kills significant portions of Obamacare, though they hadn’t yet made their position official.”

“McConnell marshaled a secret weapon that ultimately would work in his favor: Anti-abortion groups.”

Will There Be An Independent Presidential Bid in 2016?

· 23 Comments

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The calendar will help to determine whether there’s a truly prominent third-party candidate on the ballot. Filing deadlines for independent presidential candidates vary by state, but a majority fall in August. That is after the conventions — 38 states’ deadlines are after the RNC ends on July 21 — but not so far after them that a spurned candidate could easily turn around and get on many state ballots. A candidate who wants to get on every ballot will have to start much earlier than that: For instance, the deadline for an independent to get on the ballot in Texas, the second-biggest state, is May 9.”

“So maybe it would be helpful to the Republicans if Trump hangs around in the primary — so long as he doesn’t win the nomination — just long enough for a national third-party bid to be out of reach.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

· 32 Comments

“The pattern that I see is a man who seems to only feel big when he’s trying to make other people look small and I think it makes Donald Trump look the smallest of all.”

— Carly Fiorina, in an interview on Morning Joe, on Donald Trump.

Our Political System Has Failed on Gun Violence

· 83 Comments

Rick Klein: “Are the responses just timed Tweets at this point, tweaked with a new detail or two? From one side of the aisle, ‘thoughts and prayers’ and a call for a focus on mental health. From the other, ‘this must change’ and a push for gun control, of course. The nation looks to politicians for guidance and help in understanding, if not fixing, tragic circumstances. On this count, when it comes to mass shootings and their aftermath, the political class has failed.”

“If anything, the responses we’ve come to expect now only add to a nation’s numbness. But the simple fact is that politicians and candidates aren’t feeling voter pressure to change their responses or their policy positions. Part of the ritual now is the numbness, followed by the forgetfulness.”

Wonk Wire: America’s map of mass shootings

Could Rubio Foil Cruz’s Plot?

· 15 Comments

National Review: “The good news for the Texas senator is that what was once dismissed as a pipe dream — monopolizing the support of the conservative movement’s most prominent leaders in the hopes of consolidating their grassroots followers behind his candidacy — is now more feasible than ever before.”

“The bad news? That establishment bogeyman was always expected to be Jeb Bush, a relative moderate in the mold of John McCain and Mitt Romney. He would have been the ideal foil for Cruz and his conservative backers. Instead, it’s Rubio — protégé of Jim DeMint, feller of Charlie Crist — who is gaining a foothold as the establishment’s top contender.”

Trump Says He’d Like to Achieve Middle East Peace

· 55 Comments

Donald Trump said he would know within six months of taking office if Middle East peace is possible, the AP reports.

Said Trump: “I think if I get elected, that would be something I’d really like to do. Because so much death, so much turmoil, so much hatred – that would be to me a great achievement. As a single achievement, that would be a really great achievement.”

Ryan Will Lay Out Vision for Republicans

· 30 Comments

“With Republicans on Capitol Hill increasingly alarmed by what they hear coming from the presidential campaign trail, Speaker Paul Ryan will seek on Thursday to gain some control over his party’s overarching message and image,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Ryan’s aides described the speech at the Library of Congress as an effort by the speaker to lay out his governing philosophy, discuss the challenges facing the nation and describe the choice that voters will face in the 2016 elections. In his prepared remarks, he indicated that Republicans would use next year to push legislation that illustrates their vision even though President Obama is unlikely to agree.”

Politico notes Ryan will say that House Republicans plan to send “power back to the people” and “make America confident again.”

Cheney to be Honored in U.S. Senate

· 32 Comments

“As vice president as well as president of the Senate, Dick Cheney once asserted that he was essentially his own branch of government. Nevertheless, he will be immortalized in the Senate beginning on Thursday with a traditional marble bust in recognition of his service there,” the New York Times reports.

Who’s Behind the Ghost Companies Funding Jeb Bush?

· 30 Comments

Mother Jones looks at two shadowy companies that seem to be set up solely to fund a super PAC supportive of Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign.

“TH Holdings is a special case—one that represents the worst-case scenario in the post-Citizens United campaign finance landscape: untraceable corporations shoveling untraceable cash into the political system. Beyond this six-figure contribution, the company appears to have no history of doing business anywhere. And its incorporation records reveal no owners, managers, or officers.”

“A few days after the TH Holdings contribution, Right to Rise received another curious donation. This time, an Alabama-based company called Heather Oaks LLC dumped $100,000 into the group. And Heather Oaks is even more ghostly than TH Holdings.”

Obama Renews Call for Expanded Background Checks

· 34 Comments

After yet another mass shooting, President Obama told CBS News that lawmakers “should come together in a bipartisan basis at every level of government to make these rare as opposed to normal.”

Said Obama: “For those who are concerned about terrorism, some may be aware of the fact that we have a no-fly list where people can’t get on planes, but those same people who we don’t allow to fly could go into a store right now in the United States and buy a firearm, and there’s nothing we can do to stop them. That’s a law that needs to be changed.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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