Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s (D-TX) impressive bid for the Senate fell short, but his concession speech shows why many don’t think his political future is over.
Daily Archives
November 6, 2018
49 posts · Tuesday
Yes, It’s a Blue Wave
The New York Times projects a national popular vote margin of roughly 8.5% for the Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight average for the generic congressional ballot gave Democrats a 8.7% lead.
Sam Wang notes the popular vote margin in the last four midterm elections which were considered wave elections:
- 1994: R+7.1%
- 2006: D+8.0%
- 2010: R+7.2%
- 2014: R+5.7%
By historical staandards, that would be a wave election for the Democrats.
What Are the Big Surprises of the 2018 Midterms?
Kristen Soltis Anderson: “I’m still waiting for the completely-out-of-nowhere big race to emerge. I feel like there’s always one. Remember in 2014, when nobody had paid attention to Virginia’s Senate race and suddenly votes come in and Ed Gillespie almost pulled it off? Anyone have any wild, irresponsible guesses about what race might turn out that way this year?”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“It’s not going to be a wave election. It could still be a good election… but, we’ll wait and see.”
— James Carville, interviewed on MSNBC.
Who Will Win the Senate?
Republicans remain favored to retain control of the U.S. Senate. If Democrats can win in one of three Lean Republican states — North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas — they’ll still need to sweep the five toss-up contests — Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada — in order to win back the majority.
- CNN reports that Republicans have retained control of the Senate and look likely to gain seats.
Use the comments to discuss the Senate races.
Who Will Win the House?
Democrats are favored to win back control of the U.S. House, but the majority will be decided by nearly two dozen toss-up races.
- Fox News projects that Democrats will win control of the House.
Use the comments to discuss the House races.
Who Will Win the Governorships?
Democrats appear poised to pick up at least three governorships, in Illinois, Michigan and New Mexico. But there are also nine races currently considered Toss Ups: Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
- J.B. Pritzker (D) defeats Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R)
Use the comments to discuss the governor’s races.
Democrats Flip Governor’s Office In Guam
“The first result of the midterms is in and the governor’s race in Guam has been won by Lou Leon Guerrero – flipping the office from Republican to Democrat control for the first time since 2003,” the Independent reports.
“Ms Leon Guerrero becomes the first female governor in the US territory’s history on a ticket with Josh Tenorio, who will become lieutenant governor of Guam.”
Kemp Had Voting Issues In Georgia
Georgia gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp (R) had some voting issues when he went to the polls, WSB-TV reports.
When he tried to vote, his voter card said “invalid.” He had to go back and get another card.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Warning: exit polls are like online dating profiles. Things may not be as they appear. And they may break your heart.”
— 2016 Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook, on Twitter.
Exit Polls Show Election Is About Trump
CNN: “Two-thirds of voters say their vote in today’s congressional election is about Donald Trump, according to early exit polls, and more say they’re showing up at the polls to express opposition than support for the President.”
“The President’s approval rating is net negative among the nation’s voters, and more say things in the country are on the wrong track than that they are going in the right direction.”
Also interesting: “A big majority of voters, about two-thirds, made their 2018 election decision before the last month, according to preliminary exit poll results. Only one-in-five said they decided in the last month and even fewer said they made up their minds in the last few days or last week.”
Two Roger Stone Associates Testify Before Grand Jury
“Two more associates of Roger Stone, the longtime adviser to President Trump, testified recently before a grand jury hearing evidence in the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election — the latest in a series of witnesses connected to Stone whose testimony has been sought by the special counsel,” the Washington Post reports.
Pelosi Tells Allies Democrats Will Make Big Gains
“House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi predicted sweeping Democratic gains in the midterm elections at a private meeting with political allies in Washington on Tuesday, but warned that President Trump might attempt to brand the election as ‘rigged’ if the ultimate result was close,” the New York Times reports.
“Going state by state over the political map, Ms. Pelosi said she expected Democrats to capture three or four Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, between two and four in New Jersey and up to three in Illinois…. In several smaller states, Ms. Pelosi predicted a Democratic sweep of the most competitive congressional races, including gains of two seats each in Iowa and Kansas, and one seat in New Mexico.”
“That supremely optimistic outlook on the night reflects just how high Democratic hopes have risen for a takeover in the House, and one person who attended the event expressed surprised at just how far Ms. Pelosi went in the direction of predicting a robust victory.”
Trump and Health Care Are Key Issues for Midterms
A new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds that voters who will decide control of the U.S. House said President Trump and health care were two of the most important factors as they chose their candidates in the midterm election.
“More than four in 10 who cast early or absentee ballots or voted early Tuesday mentioned Trump or health care as the most important or second-most important factor for their vote, the preliminary results showed. The economy and immigration were close behind, receiving mention from over 3 in 10 voters in the results.”
“Roughly 8 in 10 voters rated the economy positively, after months of job and wage growth, but even so, a small majority said they thought the country was headed in the wrong direction.”
One Forecast That Will Come True
Seth Masket: “The forecast I’m most confident in for today’s elections is that, if Democrats have a remotely good night, Trump will claim that some sort of voter fraud took place in one or several races. This is especially likely if Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress, in which case Trump may make such claims in order to call into question the legitimacy of any new Democratic majority. He’s already hinted at this, and he said in 2016 that he’d only accept the results of that year’s presidential election if he won it. He even claimed voter fraud after he won.”
Menendez Campaign Thanks Trump for Hugin Endorsement
New Jersey U.S. Senate candidate Bob Hugin (R) “has spent his entire campaign distancing himself from President Trump. A last-second endorsement from the president likely will not help his long-shot bid to unseat scandal-wracked Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ),” CNBC reports.
In an Election Day tweet, the president said Hugin “would be a great senator from New Jersey.” Trump added: “He has my complete and total endorsement!”
A Menendez campaign spokesman responded simply: “Thank you.”
The Dials Are Back
Trump Braces for Grim Political News
“President Trump began Election Day bracing for grim political news as people across the country voted in midterm contests that will deliver the first nationwide referendum on his presidency,” the New York Times reports.
“The mood inside the White House was gloomy, according to aides and people in contact with the president. Mr. Trump, who had no public events on his schedule, waited to see whether his dark closing message about the dangers of illegal immigration could once again help him defy the polls — this time showing that Democrats are likely to win control of the House and many governorships.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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