November 6, 2018

Exclusive to Political Wire from Cornell University professors Peter K. Enns and Jonathon P. Schuldt:

We interviewed a nationally representative sample of 957 likely voters in early July and late October. Each survey asked likely voters how they planned to vote in the election for the U.S. House of Representatives. In that time, net support for Democrats increased from 8.5 to 10.8%. Considering these are the very same individuals, this represents a substantial Democratic gain. 

But Newly Engaged Voters Look Different. We also studied a special group. We randomly selected 136 respondents who said they were not likely to vote in our July survey but who were likely voters by October. Among this group, the Democratic advantage disappeared. But we must remember this is a small group, so there is a lot of uncertainty in this result. Also, those who only recently became engaged in the election constitute a small portion of total voters. In fact, when we combine both groups (likely voters from July and new likely voters), Democrats retain an 8.1% net advantage.

It Will Come Down to Turnout. These data highlight an overlooked x-factor on Election Day. Those who recently tuned into the election appear to have different voting preferences than those who’ve been engaged all along. The key question is which type of voters will turn out, and we all are part of the answer. Whatever your political preferences, make sure you vote!

About the survey: Data from Enns and Schuldt 2018 Midterm Election Study. The nationally representative survey of likely voters was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. This panel survey was funded by Cornell’s Center for the Study of Inequality.

“After largely standing by President Donald Trump as he has led his party for the past two-plus years, some Republicans now worry that his campaign rhetoric has gone too far and will cost some GOP candidates their races and jobs in Tuesday’s midterm elections,” NBC News reports.

“Trump has spent the final stretch of this election season in some of the most conservative areas in the country, rallying his base of supporters by warning that Democrats will usher in an age of ‘socialism’ and ‘open borders’ if voters put them in charge of either chamber of Congress.”

I’m sure most Political Wire readers will vote today. But please take some time to encourage your friends and co-workers to vote as well.

Playbook: “After nearly two years of President Trump executing his vision for America, voters will get a chance to decide whether they are happy with the direction of the country, or if they want to break up Republican Washington.”

“But also, today could mark the final gasp of a House Republican majority that was built in 2010 principally on repealing Obamacare, cutting government spending and opening up the legislative process. Now, eight years later, not only have Republicans failed to repeal Obamacare, they are getting hammered over their opposition to the Affordable Care Act and some of its key provisions on the campaign trail. Government spending is through the roof. And critics complain that the legislative process is as closed as ever before.”

“There is not true geographical consistency to where Republicans are struggling. They have their backs against the wall in Southern California, suburban Chicago, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey and even Texas.”

“Something interesting happened on the campaign trail the night before Election Day. President Trump seemed to recognize he had a problem with female voters,” the Washington Post reports.

“Ivanka Trump, who has maintained a low profile this campaign season, appeared alongside her dad at an Indiana rally along with White House counselor Kellyanne Conway and press secretary Sarah Sanders. Sanders opened her remarks with a joke that she ‘wasn’t used to addressing friendly crowds,’ a line she’s been employing in her stump for candidates around the country.”

“A White House official told us that Ivanka, Conway and Sanders are the three most requested White House surrogates by Republicans. Conway and Sanders have headlined dozens of fundraisers and events this fall, while Ivanka has campaigned with a handful of candidates with whom she’s developed close relationships.”

Aaron Blake: “We don’t know what’s going to happen in the election, but we’ve got a pretty good idea how it’s likely to be spun. With Republicans probably losing the House, they (and President Trump, in particular) have focused on the Senate. And if they hold it or even gain some seats, you can guarantee they’ll cite it as a win, and possibly even a split decision overall.”

“This will be false.”

”Yes, Republicans would technically be improving their lot in the Senate, while Democrats would be surging in the House… But it would also owe almost completely to some highly unusual circumstances — for which there is very little historical precedent — and it wouldn’t exactly indicate an evenly split electorate.”

“President Trump on Monday closed out an us-against-them midterm election campaign that was built on dark themes of fear, nationalism and racial animosity in an effort to salvage Republican control of Congress for the remaining two years of his term,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump’s fiery, invective-filled campaigning produced what may be the most polarized midterm contest in modern times as he played to tribal rifts in American society in a way that no president has done since before the civil rights era. The divisions exposed and expanded over the past few weeks seem certain to last well beyond Election Day.”

“Storms are expected to hit much of the Eastern United States on Tuesday, which could depress Election Day turnout in some places,” the New York Times reports.

“A strong cold front could cause rain and wind anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard, from the Florida Panhandle all the way up to Maine… There will most likely be severe thunderstorms from North Carolina up to South Jersey. And in the Northeast, especially New York and Pennsylvania, winds could reach 50 miles per hour.”

“The same broad storm system is expected to cause a mixture of rain and snow in the Great Lakes region and Northern Plains, including parts of Michigan, Minnesota and North Dakota.”