Archives for July 11, 2019 at 11:26 am EDT

A new Crooked Media/Change Research poll in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina finds five major Democratic candidates: Elizabeth Warren at 19%, Bernie Sanders at 19%, Joe Biden at 18%, Kamala Harris at 17% and Pete Buttigieg at 15%. No other candidate gets more than 3% support.

Post debate movement: “Of those who said they switched from one candidate to a new one, 55% went to Harris, 22% to Warren. Of those who went from undecided to a new candidate, 38% went to Harris, 20% to Warren, 13% to Buttigieg, and 10% to Sanders. And 42% of those who switched from Biden to another candidate went to Harris, 21% to Warren.”

“Republicans are facing an early headache of nightmare primary fights as they plot to keep control of the Senate,” The Hill reports.

“In Alabama and Kansas, two deep-red states that should be safe GOP seats, the party is facing bids from conservatives Roy Moore and Kris Kobach, respectively, who are viewed as unelectable in a general election and have a history of stealing the national spotlight.”

“Republicans say they feel good about their chances to hold onto the chamber in 2020 — when they will be playing defense in mostly red territory — but bloody fights in those two states could help widen Democrats’ path back to the majority.”

Nate Silver: “Biden, Harris and Warren represent three relatively distinct, but fairly traditional, archetypes for party nominees…”

“On an empirical basis, the Biden and Harris strategies have produced more winners than the Warren one, although all three approaches are viable. That doesn’t mean that Biden, Harris and Warren are the only candidates pursuing these strategies. Cory Booker’s coalition could look a lot like Harris’s, for instance, were he ever to gain traction. But they’re the only candidates who are both (a) taking approaches that have worked well in the past and (b) polling reasonably well at the moment. That puts them in the top tier.”

“How you would rank them within the top tier is harder. But we should probably start with the fact that Biden is still ahead of the other two in the polls. It’s closer in early state polls, and it’s closer once you account for the fact that Harris and Warren still aren’t as well-known as Biden is… Also, it’s worth noting that whichever candidate wins the plurality of black voters usually wins the Democratic nomination — something that Biden and Harris probably have a better chance of doing than Warren does.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) spoke with David Remnick of the New Yorker:

AOC: I think that, when it comes to age, I think age gets used as a proxy for capacity. And so I think there are some folks that are of a certain age where you can kind of question their capacity.

REMNICK: Who are you talking about?

AOC: I think Donald Trump is a perfect example. [Laughs.] I don’t think he’s all there.

REMNICK: Joe Biden?

AOC: I think Joe Biden, his performance on the stage kind of raised some questions with respect to that. But I don’t want to say, just because someone is seventy-nine, they can’t or shouldn’t run for President. I don’t want to use those proxies, a number as a proxy for capacity. I think you have to assess a person’s capacity on a case-by-case basis.