Archives for 2020

Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago mayor and White House chief of staff, writes in the Wall Street Journal that “this campaign looks like a repeat of 1980” because Democrats “have an opportunity to chisel off a demographic that will come to be known as Biden Republicans.”

“Democrats have the chance to achieve a generational transformation. Beyond broadening the coalition to include moderate voters who oppose President Trump, we could deepen our base by turning disaffected Republicans into Democrats.”

“The question is whether Democrats will let these voters migrate back to the GOP after November, or whether our party will become their permanent safe harbor.”

Harry Enten: “First, convention bounces have been getting smaller over the last few decades. Since 2004, the average convention bounce has been just 2 points. Some years, it’s been even less. Compare that to the 1968 to 2000 period. According to Geoffrey Skelley at FiveThirtyEight, the average bounce during that 32-year period was a little less than 7 points.”

“Second, the race for president this year has been incredibly stable. Biden’s lead has almost consistently been within a few points of 6 points. It’s never gotten higher than 10 points in the average and never below 4 points.”

“Third, the conventions are likely not going to be the newsmakers they usually are. The conventions, themselves, are going to be incredibly scaled back.”

“Democrats say that President Trump’s assault on the U.S. Postal Service has handed them a new political message in the 2020 election, with a chance to make inroads with constituencies who have long favored Republicans,” the Washington Post reports.

“Those most affected by reports of slowdowns in delivery services include veterans, senior citizens and rural residents who have long voted Republican, arming Democratic challengers and incumbents with a salient campaign issue. Democrats are already blanketing the airwaves, latching on to the opportunity to highlight support for an institution that has a 91 percent approval rating.”

Gabriel Sherman: “As Trump blasts Biden’s age and absence from the trail, Trump campaign staffers are privately frustrated that the president is refusing to get out there himself. Since his disastrous and sparsely attended Tulsa rally in June, Trump has largely cocooned himself inside the White House, leaving only for a few public events and visits to his private clubs.”

Said one GOP source: “Trump has told the campaign he only wants to do one or two events a week. They keep putting ideas in front of him, and he is telling them ‘no.'”

“One Republican close to the West Wing speculated that Trump doesn’t like doing small events like factory visits because they promote other people’s companies.”