Archives for 2020

Harry Enten: “Biden’s lead has been about as stable as they come. Since the beginning of June, he’s been up by around 8 to 10 points. We’ll see whether the convention period, that begins tomorrow, alters the race.”

“For now though, we can say Biden’s doing better than any challenger heading into the major party conventions since scientific polling began.”

“In the 13 previous elections in which an incumbent was running for another term, no challenger has ever been at or above 50% in the polls at this point in the campaign.”

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds more Americans approve than disapprove of Joe Biden’s choice of Sen. Kamala Harris for the 2020 Democratic ticket by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%.

Approval of the pick ranges from 86-8% among Democrats to 25-55% among Republicans — notable that one in four Republicans approves.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Joe Biden leads Donald Trump nationally by 9 points among registered voters, 50% to 41%, and the former vice president holds double-digit advantages over Trump on the coronavirus, immigration, health care, race relations and uniting the country.

Also interesting: The poll shows Kamala Harris with a higher net personal rating than either Trump or Biden possess.

David Wasserman: “African American voters account for roughly 12 percent of eligible voters nationally, and they account for a substantial share of the vote in six of the seven states Trump carried by 5 points or less in 2016: Florida (15 percent), Georgia (32 percent), Michigan (13 percent), North Carolina (22 percent), Pennsylvania (10 percent) and Wisconsin (6 percent).”

“An NBC News/Cook Political Report analysis of census and election data from these states shows that the decline in African American turnout and Democratic support from 2012 to 2016 was likely enough to tip at least Michigan and Wisconsin — and possibly Florida and Pennsylvania — to Trump.”

New York Times: “The idea that there are substantial numbers of Trump voters who will emerge from hiding on Election Day, large enough to sway the outcome, is not supported by the latest public opinion research — or by a proper understanding of what happened in past elections where the voter surveys were off, said pollsters who work for Republican and Democratic candidates.”

“This does not mean that Joe Biden’s lead, with the most recent national polls putting him ahead by as much as 10 points, won’t tighten. And public opinion experts say there is growing evidence that Americans across the spectrum have become more skittish about sharing their political preferences outside of a trusted group of like-minded people. But it would be a huge leap to conclude that the country’s tense political dynamics are causing people to lie to pollsters in large enough numbers to explain Mr. Trump’s poor standing.”