Playbook: “We expect Congress to pass a week-long stop-gap government funding bill. That means a shutdown will be averted, giving the two parties time to iron out more details, but pushing this crisis into another week. That’s a bad sign for other legislative priorities. By the way: no money was included to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.”
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The Resistance Is Alive But Fractured
Politico: “The first three months of the Trump administration have demonstrated that the energy and anger of the electorate has shifted unmistakably to the left as Democrats assume the role of opposition party after eight years of controlling the White House.”
“But the movement is decentralized and diffuse, lacking a singular leader and splintering into multiple fronts. Ask more than a dozen progressive activists to define the goals of the Trump resistance… and receive almost as many different answers.”
Ron Brownstein: Can Democrats reconcile two very different economic visions?
Health Plan Still Divides Republicans
David Nather: “For all of the talk that this might finally be House Republicans’ chance to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the big picture is that there’s still a bitter divide within the party — though it’s now separating the moderates from everyone else — and the whole effort is still wildly unpopular.”
“They’re closer to the goal of fulfilling a campaign promise, but they’re about to take a vote that will be perceived, rightly or wrongly, as abandoning sick people.”
“The endorsement of the conservative Freedom Caucus was big step forward for Republicans, since they were some of the main holdouts. That may be bringing Republicans closer to 216 votes… But it’s not bringing any moderate Republicans on board. It may even be losing some: Rep. Mike Coffman, a supporter of the original bill, is now undecided, according to multiple reports.”
Republicans can lose 22 lawmakers and still pass this bill. The Hill is updating a whip list.
For members: A Nightmare Scenario for Moderate Republicans
War Not Imminent with North Korea
New York Times: “President Trump summoned all 100 members of the Senate for a briefing by his war cabinet on the mounting tensions with North Korea… Americans could be forgiven for thinking that war is about to break out. But it is not.”
“The drumbeat of bellicose threats and military muscle-flexing on both sides overstates the danger of a clash between the United States and North Korea, senior Trump administration officials and experts who have followed the Korean crisis for decades said. While Mr. Trump regards the rogue government in the North as his most pressing international problem, he told the senators he was pursuing a strategy that relied heavily on using China’s economic leverage to curb its neighbor’s provocative behavior.”
CNN: Yes, Trump set up senators for a photo op.
Trump Voters Still Love Him
A new University of Virginia Center for Politics poll of Trump voters shows his approval rating at 93% with these voters, though just 42% “strongly approve” while 51% “somewhat approve.”
For members: What Would It Take for Trump to Lose His Base?
Trump’s Tax Plan Is a Reckoning for GOP Deficit Hawks
“As President Trump’s top economic advisers faced a barrage of questions on Wednesday about the tax plan they had just unfurled, there was one that they struggled most to answer: how to keep the ‘massive tax cuts’ they proposed from ballooning the federal deficit,” the New York Times reports.
“The White House insists that economic growth will cover the cost, which could be as high as $7 trillion over a decade. But the question will dog Republicans and could fracture their party as they face the prospect of endorsing a plan that many economists and budget analysts warn will increase the deficit. After years of fiscal hawkishness, conservatives now face a moment of truth about whether they truly believe America’s economy is drowning in debt.”
Le Pen’s Narrow Path Requires Opponents to Stay Home
“With a tense battle for the future of France underway ahead of a presidential runoff election next month, the far-right insurgent Marine Le Pen is pulling a page from the same improbable victory playbook as President Trump: encouraging her opponents to stay home,” the Washington Post reports.
“Opinion polls suggest that Le Pen’s opponent, centrist newcomer Emmanuel Macron, holds a commanding lead ahead of the May 7 runoff, less because French voters believe in him than because they are frightened by Le Pen’s National Front, which has long been dogged by charges of anti-Semitism and Nazi sympathies.”
“But in a year when voters are storming the establishment bastions around the world, many mainstream French politicians are warning that Macron’s campaign is dangerously complacent.”
Most Say They Wouldn’t Vote for Trump
A new Fox News poll finds that just 36% of voters say they would vote to re-elect President Trump if the 2020 election were today, compared to 55% who would vote for someone else.
In contrast, 52% said they’d vote to re-elect Barack Obama eight years ago, while just 31% said they’d vote for someone else.
Trump Suggests Breaking Up the 9th Circuit
President Trump told the Washington Examiner that he has “absolutely” considered proposals that would split up the 9th Circuit, where judges have blocked two of his executive actions.
Said Trump: “There are many people that want to break up the 9th Circuit. It’s outrageous.”
He added: “Everybody immediately runs to the 9th Circuit. And we have a big country. We have lots of other locations. But they immediately run to the 9th Circuit. Because they know that’s like, semi-automatic.”
No Charges for Woman Who Followed Mom’s ‘Dying Wish’
A North Carolina prosecutor said he will not bring voter-fraud charges against a woman who said she cast an illegal vote for Donald Trump last year to fulfill her mother’s dying wish, the Charlotte Observer reports.
Rick Hasen: “You can bet that if this were an African-American woman voting for Clinton, the DA would have prosecuted or been called ‘soft’ on voter fraud.”
Moore Will Run for Senate In Alabama
Roy Moore (R) announced he is resigning from his position as the Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court to run in the special election for U.S. Senate, the Birmingham News reports.
Said Moore: “My position has always been God first, family then country. I share the vision of President Donald Trump to make America great again. We can make America great again, we’ve got to make America good again.”
Moore said he has submitted his papers to resign from the state supreme court, a position he was suspended from for the remainder of his term.
What Would It Take for Trump to Lose His Base?
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Quote of the Day
“The president has no intention. The president has released plenty of information, and I think has given more financial disclosure than anybody else. I think the American population has plenty of information.”
— Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, quoted by the Washington Post, on whether President Trump will release his tax returns.
White House Backs Down on Obamacare Payments
“The White House has told lawmakers that it will continue paying Affordable Care Act cost-sharing subsidies, removing the biggest remaining hurdle in the negotiations to avoid a government shutdown,” Politico reports.
The Hill: “The move marks something of a shift for President Trump, who had threatened earlier this month to withhold the subsidies — known as cost-sharing reductions — as a way move Democrats to negotiate on a healthcare overhaul. But the issue had threatened to derail the ongoing talks on government funding legislation that Congress must act on this week.”
Trump May Sign Order Withdrawing from NAFTA
“The White House is considering withdrawing from NAFTA in the coming days, though President Donald Trump has not yet decided how to proceed,” CNN reports.
Politico: “A draft order has been submitted for the final stages of review and could be unveiled late this week or early next week, the officials said. The effort, which still could change in the coming days as more officials weigh in, would indicate the administration’s intent to withdraw from the sweeping pact by triggering the timeline set forth in the deal.”
House GOP Mulls Health Care Vote on Friday
“There is now discussion on the Hill and in the White House about a health care vote this Friday. The House whip team is busy counting moderate votes and gauging support within the caucus, and there should be a clearer picture of where things stand tonight,” Axios reports.
“Both the White House and GOP House leadership are cautious about setting artificial deadlines. That’s what they did last time and it backfired. They believe a vote this week is possible, though they’re unwilling to say likely.”
White House Proposes Slashing Tax Rates
President Trump “proposed sharp reductions in both individual and corporate income tax rates, reducing the number of individual income tax brackets to three — 10%, 25% and 35% — and easing the tax burden on most Americans, including the rich,” the New York Times reports.
“The Trump administration would double the standard deduction, essentially eliminating taxes on the first $24,000 of a couple’s earnings. It also called for the elimination of most itemized tax deductions but would leave in place the popular deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. The estate tax and the alternative minimum tax, which Mr. Trump has railed against for years, would be repealed under his plan.”
Washington Post: “The proposal is an outline – key details are left unfinished – but it presents an initial offer to begin negotiations with lawmakers, as White House officials believe reworking the tax code is one of their biggest priorities to boost economic growth.”
The Swamp Is Winning
Ben Smith: “As the Trump administration scrambles to list the accomplishments of Donald Trump’s first hundred days, an awkward fact is becoming clear: To the extent that they have much to brag about, it’s because they’ve turned important roles and projects over to the swamp-dwelling Washington insiders Trump campaigned against.”
“Trump’s clearest major accomplishment is also the purest example of this trend: The appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court was a masterpiece of insider politics, steered by the longtime master of Washington conservative judicial politics Leonard Leo and guided through the Senate by the most Washington of Washington strategists, Ron Bonjean.”
“The nomination process was as slick as virtually everything else Trump touched was messy: Well-researched and coordinated, with an array of conservative groups feeding and sparring with the media and with Democrats. It was characterized by aggression and spin, but not overt lying or massive bumbles. And while it was hardly a rogue operation — Bonjean is close to White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer — it was like an alternate universe from the chaos reporters are accustomed to coming out of Pennsylvania Avenue.”
