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The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Iowa Democrats Say Clinton Is Only Hope

· 13 Comments

A Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies focus group in Iowa found Iowa Democrats “see Hillary Clinton as a presidential candidate who, despite her flaws, represents what they see as their only chance of keeping control of the White House in 2016.”

“While the consensus among those who participated in the focus group was that Clinton possessed the experience and policy positions required to be elected president, the group was less confident when it came to naming the former secretary of state’s actual accomplishments.”

Bush May Skip Iowa Caucuses

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BuzzFeed: “Jeb Bush’s decision to forego this summer’s Iowa Straw Poll has roiled many conservatives in the state, but that snub might only be the beginning: According to three sources with knowledge of Bush’s campaign strategy, the likely Republican presidential candidate does not plan to seriously contest the first-in-the-nation caucuses — and may ultimately skip the state altogether.”

Bush Will Skip Iowa Straw Poll

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The Des Moines Register reports that Jeb Bush “is the first well-known Republican in the 2016 presidential field to officially opt out of the straw poll, a nationally renowned event that has drawn significant criticism over the years.”

“The Republican Party of Iowa, which hosts the Iowa Straw Poll, has been working to shore up the event’s reputation and lure candidates by addressing some of the most prevalent complaints. Last week, Iowa GOP officials announced they’ll provide free tent space and utilities for the campaigns. The straw poll has been bashed as having outsized importance, even to the point of having losing candidates drop out of the race. Campaigns sometimes spend hundreds of thousands of dollars at the straw poll as a sort of dry run for the Iowa caucuses.”

Kasich May Skip Iowa If He Runs

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Gov. John Kasich (R), “who last week made his third trip in six weeks to New Hampshire and has been to South Carolina twice, has yet to make a public appearance in Iowa, which in January holds the first presidential nominating contest,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.

“It’s a sign that if Kasich enters the race, he is inclined to emulate the strategy employed by Republican John McCain in 2000 when he bypassed Iowa, focused his time and money in New Hampshire and scored an unexpected triumph there over George W. Bush.”

Walker Leads, Bush Trails Way Behind in Iowa

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A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Gov. Scott Walker with a big early lead in the Republican Caucus, with a four-way scramble for second place and Gov. Jeb Bush way back in seventh place with 5%.

Walker leads with 21%, followed by Sen. Rand Paul and Sen. Marco Rubio at 13%, Sen. Ted Cruz at 12%, Mike Huckabee at 11%, Ben Carson at 7% and Bush at 5%. No other candidate is above 3%.

Winner of Iowa Caucuses Could Get Less Than 20%

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Des Moines Register: “The GOP caucuses have never seen more than nine contestants; that high-water mark was in 1996. The field is usually six to eight. The lowest winning percentage was Rick Santorum’s 24.6 percent in 2012, when there were essentially six competitors. The winning percentage could be less than 20 percent in 2016, given the enormity of the field.”

“The GOP menu could include eight governors, including five current (New Jersey’s Chris Christie, Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal, Ohio’s John Kasich, Michigan’s Rick Snyder and Wisconsin’s Scott Walker) and three former (Florida’s Jeb Bush, Arkansas’ Huckabee and Texas’ Rick Perry), five U.S. senators, including four current (South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham, who is serving his third term; and three first-term senators, Texas’ Ted Cruz, Kentucky’s Rand Paul and Florida’s Marco Rubio) and one former, Santorum of Pennsylvania, plus three non-politicians (Carson, Fiorina and real estate entrepreneur Donald Trump). That’s a lineup of 16. There could easily be more…”

Graham Shines at Iowa Cattle Call

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“Nine GOP White House contenders did their best to sound more compelling and better-versed on farm-related matters than their competitors Saturday as they were quizzed during an unusual showcase of agriculture policy on the presidential campaign trail,” the Des Moines Register reports.

A “witty performance” by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “captured the most applause during the 6½-hour examination of some wonkish policy matters at the Iowa Ag Summit… But it remains to be seen whether Graham, who barely registers in polling, will get the kind of lift that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) did after his buzzy speech to a similar-sized audience of Iowans and national press six weeks ago at the Iowa Freedom Summit, the first “cattle call” presidential audition of the year in Iowa.”

Washington Post: “Saturday’s forum was one of a series of events on Iowa’s political calendar this spring and summer designed to draw the candidates to the state and take positions on its pet issues.”

Republicans Already Camping Out in Iowa

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“There are so many reasons for Republicans to ignore Iowa… And yet, despite predictions that Republicans would break the costly habit of campaigning in this unrepresentative state, they are trekking to Iowa like never before,” the New York Times reports.

“Nearly a dozen 2016 hopefuls are arriving here Saturday for what the political class indelicately terms a ‘cattle call.’ Appropriately, it will be at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, a fabled venue for politicians every August — but cold and barren in March.”

Will Christie’s Courting of Iowa’s Governor Pay Off?

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National Journal: “For five years, Christie has methodically cultivated Branstad’s good graces. He’s come to Iowa whenever Branstad calls—for fundraisers, a birthday party, an inauguration, and even to help Branstad with one of his electoral pet projects. When Branstad fell ill last month and landed in the hospital, Christie was on the line, wishing him well. And when Christie took the helm of the RGA, he made sure to follow through on his financial commitments, even as Branstad waltzed to a blowout victory in 2014.”

“Now, the question is whether all the time and money Christie has invested in Branstad will pay any political dividends in 2016.”

Money Flows Into Iowa and New Hampshire

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“Republican presidential hopefuls are sending an outsize portion of their campaign funds to lawmakers in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, as they attempt to win over influential figures ahead of the 2016 campaign, a new report finds,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

“It is not uncommon for politicians to use their PACs to give money to other candidates — leadership PACs, which most potential 2016 candidates have already launched, are structured primarily for that purpose. But giving such a high percentage of contributions to lawmakers in two small states offers a stark portrayal of the lengths to which contenders will go to curry favor with those voters.”

Ernst Seeks to Become a GOP Power Broker

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Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) “hasn’t been in office a month, but she’s already delivered the GOP response to the State of the Union. And now the Iowa Republican is looking to parlay her newfound celebrity into something more powerful: influence in the 2016 presidential campaign,” Politico reports.

“Likely candidates are expected to attend a summer political event put on by Ernst that will showcase her sway at the national level. Weeks after Ernst won a hotly contested Senate race, her staff started planning the June 6 gathering that she aims to turn into an annual tradition akin to the steak fry that her Democratic predecessor, Tom Harkin, put on 37 times.”

Conservatives Gather in Iowa

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“The largest gathering of potential Republican presidential candidates so far will descend on Iowa on Saturday to test their messages at a forum shaping up as the informal starting gun for the 2016 campaign,” the New York Times reports.

“The event, which is being hosted by Representative Steve King, Republican of Iowa, offers Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, the most prominent establishment figure on the schedule, a chance to test his appeal among grass-roots conservatives.”

Politico: “Democrats are looking to turn a weekend event in Iowa being hosted by immigration lightning rod Steve King into a spectacle that sets the GOP further back with Latinos ahead of the 2016 campaign.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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