Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
The caucuses will begin at 8 p.m. ET and are expected to end by 11 p.m. ET, though there is not a set end time.
Caucus results will be tallied here for the Republicans and here for the Democrats as they are reported.
The Huffington Post also has a pretty good page compiling results.
FiveThirtyEight gives Donald Trump a 46% chance of winning in Iowa and Hillary Clinton a 67% chance.
PredictWise gives Trump a 68% chance and Clinton a 73% chance.
Bing Predicts also picks Trump and Clinton.
Make your own predictions in the comments.
“I don’t know whether Cruz or Trump are going to carry the state, but below those two there’ll probably be three or four that will be within four or five points of each other so I assume we’re gonna have four or five people go away here as victors, at least in their own minds.”
— Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), quoted by Politico, on tonight’s Iowa caucuses.
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National Review: “Four years ago, a record-breaking number of Iowans — 121,503 — participated in the Republican caucuses. If turnout exceeds 135,000 this year, GOP insiders agree, it will be an indication that Donald Trump has attracted a significant number of new voters to the caucuses. And if the increase is even more drastic — say, upwards of 150,000, which some Republicans believe is possible — then Trump will likely win.”
“But if turnout is below 135,000, Iowa will be Ted Cruz’s to lose, for two reasons: Firstly, both public and internal polling shows that Cruz’s supporters are, by and large, veterans of the caucus process, meaning their support can be counted on no matter what. Secondly, the Cruz campaign has poured massive resources into a field operation to successfully identify, persuade, and recruit voters.”
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Donald Trump said “he would like to win the Iowa Caucuses, but that he doesn’t believe his campaign has to win the first primary state in the country to remain successful,” Politico reports.
Said Trump: “No, I don’t have to win it. And right now, you and I are sitting in New Hampshire. And as you know, I have a very substantial lead in New Hampshire. But I think it would be really good to win Iowa.”
The final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP race with 28%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Ben Carson 10% and Rand Paul at 5%.
Interesting: “Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9% of likely GOP caucusgoers haven’t yet made a choice, they’re part of the 45% who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours.”
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 45% to 42%.
For members: Why this is the most important poll
“Three days before voting begins, residents around Iowa are making plans to caucus, but new online tools launched by both the state Democratic and Republican parties designed to inform people where to go Monday evening were built with one major hole,” ABC News reports.
“The systems were only built off the list of registered voters’ addresses. As a result, for new voters who have never registered in the state and who live at addresses where no one else has registered, the online feature does not work.”
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad will appear with Gov. Chris Christie at his final rally before the Iowa Caucuses Sunday night, “providing a final boost to Christie before the first ballots are cast,” Time reports.
“The appearance, in which Branstad introduce Christie, is not an official endorsement, according to Christie’s campaign. But it is expected to nonetheless signal Branstad’s preference in the race, much like Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s appearance with Sen. Marco Rubio last week gave a signal to her supporters.”
The Hill: “GOP strategists expect between 150,000 and 185,000 voters will turn out, according to one senator who reviewed campaign projections. A big turnout would bode well for Trump who is expected to perform strongly among first-time voters.”
“A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Trump with 32-percent support in Iowa compared to 26-percent support for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, his second-place rival, under a scenario in which 200,000 people vote. When the projected turnout drops to 130,000, Trump and Cruz are tied at 26 percent, according to the Monmouth survey.”
Sen. Ted Cruz “enters the homestretch weakened by attacks from all sides, lagging poll numbers and a widely panned debate performance, putting enormous pressure on the onetime-Iowa poll leader to recapture momentum,” Politico reports.
“On Friday and in the hours following Thursday’s debate, other campaigns seized on an off-kilter performance from Cruz to crow that he is losing his grasp on Iowa, a state where he led by double digits last month.”
A new Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP pack with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 27%, Marco Rubio at 13%, Ben Carson at 7% and Jeb Bush at 6%.
The HuffPost Pollster averages show Trump leading Cruz, 32% to 25%.
Wall Street Journal: “In other words, if Mr. Trump wins, it will be because he pulled off a difficult feat: Changing the composition of a conservative electorate to draw in more centrist voters.”
“Iowa has been friendly territory for candidates such as Mr. Cruz, who campaign on a strict adherence to conservative policy. In 2012, almost half of Republican caucus-goers—some 47%—described themselves as “very conservative.” A mere 17% rated themselves ideologically moderate or liberal, with the rest calling themselves ‘somewhat conservative.'”
“But there are signs that the ideological mix of the voting pool could be far different on Monday, likely because of the presence of Mr. Trump. If the signals bear out, Mr. Trump will benefit.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by eight points, 48% to 40%.
Interesting: “One thing that will likely cause things to tighten up on Monday night is that O’Malley’s supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. 57% of O’Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it’s Clinton.”
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“Ted Cruz has flipped his TV strategy heading into the crucial final weekend before the Iowa caucuses, rerouting money from negative ads that had been slamming Donald Trump to hit Marco Rubio instead,” Politico reports.
“The last-minute change is a sign that, even as both the Rubio and Cruz campaigns have publicly denied it, Rubio is increasingly a threat to Cruz in the state.”
Rubio is quoted by Time: “Obviously they must be concerned about something. You don’t spend money against a candidate if you’re not concerned about them.”
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) ripped into Ted Cruz — “mocking him for his debate performance and asserting that his prospects in the state are dimming,” Politico reports.
Said Branstad: “Ted Cruz was ahead in Iowa, but as people have figured out his stance on issues that are important to the economy of the state. He was ahead on polls, but now he’s dropped below Trump.”
He added: “It was a poor performance on his part.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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