Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
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Despite talk of momentum on their side, Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign is shutting down talk of anything but a third place finish in Iowa, Politico reports.
Said senior adviser Todd Harris: “Second is not in the cards. It’s never been our goal. Our goal is to finish a strong third and exceed expectations. But there’s no question in my mind that Cruz will likely win here and Trump will be a strong second.”
“A wide range of senior Republicans told Politico that if Trump wins Iowa, he’ll more than likely be the nominee. One factor they repeatedly pointed to: An Iowa victory over Cruz would validate opinion polls showing him in command of the race. The Trump phenomenon would officially become a reality.”
Said a top official of a rival GOP campaign: “If Donald Trump wins Iowa, I think he has won—period. Ted Cruz is supposed to win Iowa. If Trump wins, he’ll be on a trajectory to come out of the SEC primaries [March 1] with close to triple the delegates of anyone else.”
Sen. Ted Cruz, “who has been harshly criticizing Donald Trump all week on the campaign trail and in television commercials here, is now broadening his attacks to include Senator Marco Rubio, an unmistakable acknowledgment that Mr. Rubio is gaining support in the closing days before the Monday caucuses,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Cruz incorporated a critique of Mr. Rubio into his closing stump speech at a rally in West Des Moines on Wednesday night, arguing that his colleague had effectively given up the fight against same-sex marriage… Just as striking, Mr. Cruz’s campaign quietly began running an ad in Iowa Thursday targeting Mr. Rubio over his support of ‘amnesty’ for undocumented immigrants.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 9%.
Key finding: “Cruz has seen a large drop in his favorability rating over the last few weeks, from 69/18 down to just 56/35. Trump’s continued focus on the ‘Canadian birther’ issue may really be a big part of what’s helping him at Cruz’s expense.”
When Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) appeared at a breakfast this morning, he had an opportunity to criticize Donald Trump for skipping tonight’s GOP debate, the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Branstad not only declined to bash Mr. Trump for his decision to hold a separate event in Des Moines at the same time as the debate, but he also marveled at what he described as the Trump phenomenon and predicted a record Republican turnout on Monday.”
Said Branstad: “I’ll never forget the Iowa State Fair when he’s giving rides on his helicopter.”
First Read: “Just look at our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Donald Trump now has a seven-point lead over Ted Cruz among likely caucus-goers, 32%-25%, with Marco Rubio at 18%.”
“It’s a closer race among past Iowa participants, Trump 29% and Cruz 25%. But among new participants, Trump has a 14-point advantage, 39%-25% — meaning a larger, newer turnout benefits Trump, while a smaller, older turnout helps Cruz. It’s that simple.”
“Are new participants going to flock to the caucus sites on Monday? So far, we’re not seeing it, though participants have until the night of the contest (Feb. 1) to register.”
Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: “With just a few days to go before the Monday caucuses, we believe Clinton is decently positioned to survive Iowa. Momentum and excitement appear to be more on Sanders’ side, but he may be over-reliant on a base of supporters that are not well distributed throughout the state and a bit less likely to turn out at the level he needs… If despite all this, Clinton still comes up short, let’s not forget that Iowa’s Democratic activists are overwhelmingly white and somewhat more liberal than in many other states where Clinton will be favored due to strong minority backing. So a Clinton loss here is far from fatal.”
“For the Republicans, the late momentum (at least as this is written) appears to be Donald Trump’s, and he has built a modest edge in the kickoff contest. The GOP’s leadership, faced with a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea (Trump and Ted Cruz) from their establishment perspective, seem to favor the flexible Republican Trump over the ideologue Cruz, at least for now. We still have questions about Trump’s ability to get his supporters to caucus locations on Monday, but if he can jump that hurdle, he may only grow in strength in the state contests to come.”
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Ted Cruz with a seven point lead among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, 32% to 25%. Marco Rubio follows at 18%.
Key finding: “The poll also shows Trump in a close race with Cruz among likely voters who are white Evangelical Christians, 31% to 28%. The two candidates have been battling over the influential bloc of voters in the state, with each touting endorsements from Evangelical heavyweights in recent days.”
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton remains just three points in front of Bernie Sanders, 48% to 45%.
A new Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds that Donald Trump leads the GOP field with 30%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio at 16% and Ben Carson at 10%.
Key finding: “Cruz’s support has basically held steady since his 24% showing in December when he led the field, while Trump’s support has grown substantially from 19% last month. The current result is Trump’s
best showing in any Monmouth Iowa caucus poll since he entered the race.”
First Read: “Yes, this is a cliché — but it’s also true: Trump and Sanders need a new turnout to win Iowa, while Clinton and Cruz need a traditional turnout. That’s what all of the polling backs up.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Sen. Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by four points, 49% to 45%.
The HuffPost Pollster polling averages now show a dead heat.
Sen. Bernie Sanders is now managing expectations for Iowa caucuses next week, Salon reports.
Said Sanders: “Obama in 2008 ran a campaign which is really going to stay in the history books. It was an unbelievable campaign. In places they ran out of ballots as I understand it.”
He added: “Do I think that in this campaign that we’re going to match that? I would love to see us do that. I hope we do. But frankly I don’t think we will. What happened in 2008 was extraordinary.”
First Read: “On the Democratic side, last night’s CNN town hall in Iowa appeared to confirm a Fox News poll of the Hawkeye State showing Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by six points among likely caucus-goers, 48%-42%. Sanders looked and sounded like a candidate who was slightly behind — he was defensive and very aggressive. When shown a recent Clinton TV ad, Sanders used it to criticize her record. On the other hand, Clinton looked and sounded like the candidate who was narrowly ahead — she stated her case, deflected questions, and didn’t aggressively attack Sanders.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 29%, Marco Rubio at 13% and no other candidate above 7%.
This is virtually unchanged from a similar poll two weeks ago.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “Despite Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad’s criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite – or because of – Sen. Cruz’ ‘New York values’ comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call. One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven’t moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days.”
Nate Cohn: “Momentum is generally overrated in primary politics, but back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would give Mr. Trump a chance to run the table through Super Tuesday, on March 1, especially with the establishment-backed candidates so divided. It would be a big reversal of the hopes of conservatives from a few weeks ago; they figured Mr. Trump might simply evaporate if he lost Iowa.”
“The party’s establishment is not well positioned to stop Mr. Trump if he fares so well in the early states. All of the main establishment candidates are near one another in New Hampshire. If the field doesn’t narrow quickly after the primary there on Feb. 9, there will be a real chance that Mr. Trump will build a wide delegate lead over a split field on Super Tuesday.”
PredictWise now sees Trump as a 2 to 1 favorite over Cruz in Iowa.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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