Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) “will resign as Iowa and the nation’s longest-serving governor and Kim Reynolds will be sworn in as his successor in back-to-back morning ceremonies at the Iowa Capitol,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The long-awaited gubernatorial transition occurs two days after Branstad’s confirmation as ambassador to China by the U.S. Senate. In addition to the transfer of gubernatorial power, Branstad will be officially sworn into his diplomatic post.”
“The leadership PAC of former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley commissioned a Public Policy Polling survey of the first-in-the-nation caucus state earlier this month,” according to a copy of the results obtained by Politico.
“The poll, which shows O’Malley at 18 percent of Democratic caucus-goers in a field of nine potential candidates if the contest were held today, also asked the Iowans about New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former Housing Sec. Julian Castro, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, and Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.”
Des Moines Register: “A bill in the Iowa Senate seeks to achieve greater political diversity among professors at the state’s Board of Regents universities. Senate File 288 would institute a hiring freeze until the number of registered Republicans and Democrats on the university faculty fall within 10 percent of each other.”
A new Des Moines Register poll finds 42% of Iowans approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 49% disapprove.
“Trump won Iowa on his way to the White House by 9 percentage points in November, his widest victory among states believed by many to be swing states.”
A new Des Moines Register poll finds that 51% of Iowans disagree with President Trump’s executive order pausing refugee resettlement and barring travel to the U.S. from seven Muslim-majority countries.
“Seven weeks before Election Day, the earliest numbers from advance voting for president show initial strength for Hillary Clinton in swing state North Carolina, good news for Donald Trump in battleground Iowa and a record number of requests for ballots in Ohio,” the AP reports.
“The first early voting figures Tuesday are too preliminary to serve as clear indicators about how the election will go. Still, they are of interest because, unlike polls, they deal with actual voters either casting ballots or taking their first steps to do so. Campaigns are scrutinizing these figures to help guide their strategies.”
The Guardian: “Trump’s strong position is in part due to the fact that unlike in other swing states, the Iowan Republican establishment has rallied conclusively behind him.”
A new Monmouth poll in Iowa shows Donald Trump with a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 44% to 42%.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) has a 10 point lead over challenger Patty Judge (D), 52% to 42%.
A new Loras College poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton crushing Donald Trump in the presidential race, 48% to 34%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) is barely aheaad of challenger Patty Judge, 46% to 45%.
“The Iowa Democratic Party has discovered errors in the results from five precincts, but the outcome of the Iowa caucuses remains the same,” the Des Moines Register reports.
According to the new tally, Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders, 49.84% to 49.59%
“Look, I’ve never done this before. I’ve been a politician for seven months. I’m against governors and senators. They’ve done it their whole lives. It would seem to me that people would just go out and vote.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the Associated Press, explaining that he “never realized” the need to encourage supporters to actually take part in the Iowa caucuses.
“Iowa Democratic Party officials are reviewing results from the Iowa caucuses and making updates where discrepancies have been found,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The latest development follows widespread questions among Iowa Democrats and national media about the accuracy of the counts reported on caucus night, which saw the second-highest number of participants and closest result in Democrats’ caucus history.”
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) credited Ted Cruz for running an “old-fashioned”, 99-county campaign in Iowa, but also ripped Cruz for using “questionable” campaign tactics, Radio Iowa reports.
Said Branstad: “This thing that they distributed on Caucus night saying that Dr. Carson was likely to drop out and his supporters should support Cruz, that is, I think, unethical and unfair. I think there’ll be repercussions to that.”
A Des Moines Register editorial blasts the Iowa Democratic caucuses:
“What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period. Democracy, particularly at the local party level, can be slow, messy and obscure. But the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy. The Iowa Democratic Party must act quickly to assure the accuracy of the caucus results, beyond a shadow of a doubt.”
First of all, the results were too close not to do a complete audit of results. Two-tenths of 1 percent separated Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. A caucus should not be confused with an election, but it’s worth noting that much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states.
Second, too many questions have been raised. Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems.”
Carl Bialik: “Most Iowa polls showed Donald Trump winning the state’s Republican caucuses. He didn’t. Some Iowa polls showed Hillary Clinton winning Iowa easily. She didn’t. It’s notoriously hard to poll Iowa, but what can pollsters learn from Monday night’s results to improve their work over the next few months — and for the 2020 caucuses?”
“One of the biggest lessons was a simple one: Keep on contacting voters as late as possible.”
“Sanders campaign aides told the Des Moines Register they’ve found some discrepancies between tallies at the precinct level and numbers that were reported to the state party. The Iowa Democratic Party determines its winner based not on a head count, like in the Republican caucuses, but on state delegate equivalents, tied to a math formula. And there was enough confusion, and untrained volunteers on Monday night, that errors may have been made.”
Nate Silver: “It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns out that few late-deciding voters went for him. According to entrance polls in Iowa, Trump won 39 percent of the vote among Iowans who decided on their candidate more than a month ago. But he took just 13 percent of voters who had decided in the last few days, with Rubio instead winning the plurality of those voters.”
Politico: “If polls were only meant to predict the horse-race, pollsters would keep interviewing voters until the very last minute. They aren’t, and that’s why the polls may have missed some late shifts.”
New York Times: “The vote here in Iowa was a portrait of red-hot America, so disaffected that it turned to a pugilistic evangelical Republican who calls for demolition of a system saturated with corruption. And it sent a forceful message to Democratic leaders that it was unwilling to put aside its resentment of Wall Street and corporate America to crown a lifelong party insider who has amassed millions in speaking fees from the big banks.”
“Monday night’s results confirmed that despite the widening cultural and political fissures that have divided right and left, voters are united in an impatience, even a revulsion, at what they see as a rigged system that no longer works for them.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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