A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District finds Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) has inched ahead of challenger Scott Wallace (D), 50% to 46% among likely voters.

“The race narrows to a virtual tie of 49% for Fitzpatrick and 48% for Wallace using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Fitzpatrick with a larger 52% to 45% edge over Wallace.”

David Weigel: “NRCC chairman Steve Stivers has called Scott Wallace the worst Democratic nominee in the country, and he’s down by 4 points.”

A new Monmouth poll finds Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) leads challenger Scott Wallace (D) by 7-points among registered voters, 49% to 42%.

However, the race is much tighter using two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Fitzpatrick a negligible 48% to 47% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where President Trump is unpopular gives an insignificant edge to Wallace at 48% to 47%.