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Democrats Lost Senate While Getting 10 Million More Votes

November 7, 2018 · 10:10 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “As Europeans woke up to the results of the 2018 midterm elections on Wednesday, their primary question — what next for a president who is so deeply unpopular here? — remained largely unanswered.”

“But just like in the United States, European news networks still dedicated hours-long specials to the key vote. And while viewers here tried to make sense of the results, they repeatedly stumbled over two numbers: the total votes for Democratic and Republican Senate candidates. More than 44 million Americans voted for Democratic Senate candidates vs. about 33 million for Republican contenders.”

“As the animated TV graphics clearly showed, though, it was Republicans who ended the night in control of the Senate — not the Democrats.”

Aaron Blake: “But the Senate popular vote is a bogus stat for a whole host of reasons… The biggest problem with it is that not every state is up for reelection, leading to a skewed picture… The second reason is California. It has a unique system in which the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party. This year, that was two Democrats. That means all 6 million votes counted (with many more to come) go to the Democrats.”

2018 Campaign

More Realignment Than Wave

November 7, 2018 · 9:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

First Read: “Indeed, much like Virginia’s gubernatorial contest from last year, Democrats won big in highly educated urban/suburban areas up and down the ballot. The problem for them is that not all states are Virginia, where those urban/suburban areas mathematically crush the rest of the state.”

“Yes, Dems flipped the governor’s mansion in Kansas. And they pulled off a surprising congressional win in Oklahoma.”

“But as we wrote yesterday, we are living in extremely volatile and divided times. And what we are seeing is a further realignment of our politics — with urban/suburban going Democratic, and with rural and red areas going more Republican.”

2018 Campaign

Member feature

Why This Blue Wave Feels Smaller

November 7, 2018 · 9:29 am ET · Leave a Comment

Noam Bramson, the Mayor of New Rochelle, NY, offers this piece for members.

I am trying to sort through my feelings about yesterday’s election. Elation? Disappointment? Relief? I guess some combination of the three, with relief in the top spot.

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2018 Campaign, Members

Still Waiting for California

November 7, 2018 · 7:48 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “For almost two years, California was seen as the key to Democrats’ quest for the House majority. Turns out, they didn’t need it.”

“The party will likely have flipped roughly 30 House seats — it needed 23 to win control — without posting any gains in California at all. But Democrats seem likely to add to that total once California counts all its votes.”

“How many more seats will Democrats win? It could be awhile before we know for sure. Voters in California could postmark their ballots as late as Tuesday, and it will take weeks for all those votes to be tallied.”

“As of Wednesday morning, Democratic candidates are only leading in three of the seven targeted California races. But late ballots in California tend to trend Democratic, so more could pull ahead in the coming days.”

2018 Campaign California

Results We Still Don’t Know

November 7, 2018 · 7:25 am ET · Leave a Comment

There are still many high profile races which are not yet called, per Axios:

  • In Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams (D) has vowed not to concede against her opponent Brian Kemp (R) until “every vote gets counted.” Kemp currently holds 50.5% of the vote, but the race could face a runoff if neither candidate ultimately ends up over 50%.
  • In Arizona’s Senate race, Martha McSally (R) is up on Kyrsten Sinema (D) 49.3% to 48.5% with about 99.3% reporting. The Arizona Republic notes “an official victor may not be known for days — and maybe longer, if the final tally were to trigger a recount or legal challenge.”
  • In Florida’s Senate race, Rick Scott (R) is up on Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50.2% to 49.8% with 100% reporting. Scott has declared victory, but the race is statistically too close to call and an automatic recount will take place if the margin of victory remains less than 0.5%.
  • In Montana’s Senate race, Sen. Jon Tester is down 48.2% to 48.9% against challenger Matt Rosendale (R) with about 82% reporting and the race still too close to call.

Use the comments to discuss other races that are still too close to call.

2018 Campaign

Two Americas

November 7, 2018 · 7:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The midterms produced a divided Congress that’s emblematic of a split America, drifting further apart and pointing to poisonous years ahead,” Axios reports.

“The net result: Two parties with two wildly different bases and philosophies are pulling farther and farther apart — and are certain to double down on divisiveness heading into 2020.”

“The Democratic strategy of targeting women, minorities and the young was vindicated with the new House majority. We saw record liberal turnout in many suburbs.”

“The Republican strategy of targeting men, whites and rural voters was vindicated with the larger Senate majority. We saw record conservative turnout in rural Trump country.”

2018 Campaign

Opponents of Abortion Win Big

November 7, 2018 · 7:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Republicans gained some of their most important ground on Tuesday by electing several new senators who are opposed to abortion rights, a development that will help the party advance one of its bedrock issues.”

“By picking up Democratic-held Senate seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri — and possibly elsewhere — the Republican majority will be decidedly further to the right on the issue. And no longer will the votes of two senators who support abortion rights — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — be as pivotal when it comes to confirming judges and passing legislation.”

The Hill: “Republican gains in the Senate make the process of confirming conservative justices significantly easier.”

2018 Campaign

Viral Stars Fizzle

November 7, 2018 · 7:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Several House candidates whose compelling biographies (and slickly produced renderings of them) helped put them on the national radar lost on Tuesday, including Randy Bryce in Wisconsin, Amy McGrath in Kentucky and M.J. Hegar in Texas. Ms. McGrath and Ms. Hegar made it close in traditionally conservative areas, though Democrats had higher hopes for full breakthroughs in recent weeks.”

“The conclusion is certainly not that viral videos are counterproductive; they remain a useful and efficient way to raise money and introduce a candidate to a wider audience. But at times, it seems, the audience was not always the intended constituency.”

The Hill: “A handful of Democratic hopefuls barreled into the general election with seemingly larger-than-life profiles that captured priceless media attention and raised the hopes of their supporters. But a number of them came up short on Election Day.”

2018 Campaign, Political Advertising

No Clear Signal for Democrats

November 7, 2018 · 6:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Democrats were hoping Tuesday’s results would help them chart a course for the 2020 presidential race by clearly demonstrating that either mobilization (boosting turnout among liberals, minorities and other base Democratic voters) or persuasion (tacking to the center to try to win undecided voters) is the winning strategy in Trump’s America.”

“But instead of a clear signal, they got noise, with conflicting data that is sure to be cherry-picked by both wings of the party to argue the superiority of their side.”

Matt Grossman: “I do not see any clear patterns on messaging. Whether candidates talked more about health care, taxes or immigration does not seem predictive of outcomes. Each issue was likely effective mainly at convincing each party’s leaners to support their party’s candidates.”

2018 Campaign

Democrats Pick Up Seven Governorships

November 7, 2018 · 6:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats wrested control of governorships from Republicans in seven states on Tuesday including Wisconsin, where they ousted Scott Walker after eight tumultuous years as the state’s chief executive, and Kansas, a surprise victory in a longtime Republican stronghold,” the New York Times reports.

“But Republicans fended off strong Democratic challenges to hold on to the governorships of Florida, Ohio and Iowa, maintaining their control of three states likely to be crucial in the 2020 presidential elections.”

“The victories expanded the number of states with Democratic chief executives — an important consideration as legislatures begin the process of drawing congressional district lines. In addition to Kansas and Wisconsin, Democrats also picked up governor’s seats in Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico and Maine.”

2018 Campaign

Democrats Carve Through GOP Suburbs to Take House

November 7, 2018 · 6:42 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats have won back control of the House of Representatives, slicing through Republican-held suburbs where President Trump has proven toxic to undo a Republican majority once thought to be impervious until the next round of redistricting,” Politico reports.

“From Florida to Texas to Illinois, Republican incumbents who survived reelection in 2016 even as Trump lost their districts fell decisively to Democratic challengers who linked them to the president and attacked their votes on health care and taxes last year, delivering a check-and-balance message to the president.”

“The results sprang from a fundamental realignment of the Republican Party, which has withdrawn from its old suburban bastions under Trump and established new strength in rural areas.”

New York Times: “The divergent outcomes in the House and Senate — a Democratic takeover in one chamber, and Republican gains in the other — exposed an ever-deepening gulf separating rural communities from America’s cities and suburbs.”

2018 Campaign

Record Number of Women Head to Capitol Hill

November 7, 2018 · 6:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Female candidates for Congress made history on Tuesday night, with more than 100 women sweeping into office on the strength of a Democratic House takeover powered in large part by college-educated female voters,” Politico reports.

“The women winning House seats also marked several milestones for diverse representation beyond the gender divide, including the first Native American women in Congress and the first Muslim women in Congress. Their victories mark an undeniable leap forward toward representation on Capitol Hill that more closely resembles the divide among the U.S. population, although women still have a long way to go before reaching parity in both the House and Senate.”

2018 Campaign

The Trump Effect Is Real

November 7, 2018 · 6:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

NBC News: “No one could say voters were caught off guard this time. Turnout soared in comparison to prior midterms. And once again, many of the trends that helped elect Trump, even as he lost the popular vote, held true.”

“Just like in 2016, rural voters in 2018 turned out in droves to elect Senate candidates in states Trump won, like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and even purple Florida.

“But, in another echo of 2016, Trump did catastrophic damage to Republicans in the suburbs, long a traditional source of strength for the GOP. From Fairfax, Virginia, to Dallas, Texas, these angry voters made it clear early that Democrats would capture the House, even with a map whose gerrymandered lines strongly favored Republicans.”

2018 Campaign

Steve King Wins Re-Election In Iowa

November 7, 2018 · 6:34 am ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) “has again bested Democrats who hoped they would finally knock him out of Congress,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“King has sparked national controversy with caustic comments about undocumented immigrants and with his support of right-wing politicians in other countries. Even some fellow Republicans have disavowed him.”

2018 Campaign IA-4

Rohrabacher Apparently Loses In California

November 7, 2018 · 6:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

Harley Rouda (D) increased his lead to 2,208 votes early Wednesday over incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) in the race for the 48th congressional district seat, the Los Angeles Times reports.

“With all precincts reporting, Rouda held 50.7% of the vote. There remain thousands of provisional and late vote-by-mail ballots from the district left to be counted post-election.”

2018 Campaign CA-48

Indicted GOP Lawmakers Win Re-Election

November 7, 2018 · 6:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

San Diego Union-Tribune: “Rep Duncan Hunter (R-CA), facing re-election amid a federal prosecution for alleged stealing of $250,000 in campaign funds, was easily fighting off a re-election challenge on Tuesday from a Democrat with Mexican and Palestinian roots who struggled to connect with voters in strongly Republican parts of East County and North County.”

Buffalo News: “Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), a Clarence Republican indicted on felony insider trading charges, narrowly won his bid for a fourth term Tuesday after one of the most unusual congressional campaigns in recent Western New York history.”

“At nearly 1 a.m., it got more unusual: Nathan McMurray, after earlier conceding defeat, called for a recount.”

2018 Campaign

Dead Brothel Owner Wins In Nevada

November 7, 2018 · 6:15 am ET · Leave a Comment

Las Vegas Review Journal: “Democrat Lesia Romanov was the only candidate with a pulse in the race for Assembly District 36, but apparently that wasn’t enough to defeat deceased brothel owner Dennis Hof.”

“Based on partial returns late Tuesday night, it appeared voters in the rural, heavily Republican district chose to elect someone no longer living rather than let the seat turn blue.”

2018 Campaign Nevada

Scott Walker Loses In Wisconsin

November 7, 2018 · 6:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

“After upending Wisconsin politics and infuriating liberals across the country, Gov. Scott Walker (R) narrowly lost his bid for a third term Tuesday to Tony Evers (D), the leader of the education establishment Walker blew up eight years ago,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

2018 Campaign WI-Gov

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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