Aaron Blake: “We don’t know what’s going to happen in the election, but we’ve got a pretty good idea how it’s likely to be spun. With Republicans probably losing the House, they (and President Trump, in particular) have focused on the Senate. And if they hold it or even gain some seats, you can guarantee they’ll cite it as a win, and possibly even a split decision overall.”

“This will be false.”

”Yes, Republicans would technically be improving their lot in the Senate, while Democrats would be surging in the House… But it would also owe almost completely to some highly unusual circumstances — for which there is very little historical precedent — and it wouldn’t exactly indicate an evenly split electorate.”

“President Trump on Monday closed out an us-against-them midterm election campaign that was built on dark themes of fear, nationalism and racial animosity in an effort to salvage Republican control of Congress for the remaining two years of his term,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump’s fiery, invective-filled campaigning produced what may be the most polarized midterm contest in modern times as he played to tribal rifts in American society in a way that no president has done since before the civil rights era. The divisions exposed and expanded over the past few weeks seem certain to last well beyond Election Day.”

“Storms are expected to hit much of the Eastern United States on Tuesday, which could depress Election Day turnout in some places,” the New York Times reports.

“A strong cold front could cause rain and wind anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard, from the Florida Panhandle all the way up to Maine… There will most likely be severe thunderstorms from North Carolina up to South Jersey. And in the Northeast, especially New York and Pennsylvania, winds could reach 50 miles per hour.”

“The same broad storm system is expected to cause a mixture of rain and snow in the Great Lakes region and Northern Plains, including parts of Michigan, Minnesota and North Dakota.”

“A staggering 36 million voters cast their ballots ahead of Election Day this year, setting the stage for much-higher-than-usual turnout for a midterm — and, potentially, big surprises on Tuesday night,” Politico reports.

“Republican enthusiasm for President Donald Trump and Democrats’ itch to repudiate him at the ballot box have driven people to the polls far faster than in 2014, when 27.2 million people voted early.”

For members: If There’s a Surprise Tomorrow Night…

President Trump pre-emptively spread around blame for the results of Tuesday’s midterms elections, accusing CNN of peddling “fake suppression polls” and floating the prospect of widespread fraudulent voting, Politico reports.

“Hitting the campaign trail on the eve of the nation’s pivotal midterm elections, President Trump told supporters that Democrats would gut his agenda if they win control of the House and Senate,” USA Today reports.

Said Trump: “Everything we have created and achieved is at stake on Election Day.”

Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”

“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”

Wall Street Journal: “Donors who identify their occupation as ‘retired’ gave 52% of the $326 million they contributed through Oct. 17 to Democrats, compared with 48% to Republicans… That is a reversal of their split four years ago—and it’s a record amount of midterm money from retirees.”

“This is the first midterms since the group began keeping donor industry data in 1990 in which retirees favor Democrats over Republicans.”

Roger Angell: “What we can all do at this moment is vote—get up, brush our teeth, go to the polling place, and get in line. I was never in combat as a soldier, but now I am. Those of you who haven’t quite been getting to your polling place lately, who want better candidates or a clearer system of making yourself heard, or who just aren’t in the habit, need to get it done, this time around. If you stay home, count yourself among the hundreds of thousands now being disenfranchised by the relentless parade of restrictions that Republicans everywhere are imposing and enforcing. If you don’t vote, they have won, and you are a captive, one of their prizes.”

“When you do go to vote on Tuesday, take a friend, a nephew, a neighbor, or a partner, and be patient when in line. Just up ahead of you, the old guy in a sailing cap, leaning on his cane and accompanied by his wife, is me, again not minding the wait, and again enthralled by the moment and its meaning.”

Roll Call: “Republican leaders pitched their closing midterm argument Monday: that Democratic gains would mean a check on the agenda of President Donald Trump, including the unimpeded seating of conservative judges and a halt to the president’s border wall.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our expectations for this election have been consistent for the past several months. We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships.”

House: “Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. ”

Senate: “Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility. Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.”

Governors: “For all the focus on the House and the Senate, the real story of the night may be in the gubernatorial races, where we see the Democrats poised to make big gains.”