“Get ready for a blockbuster primary between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in 2026,” Punchbowl News reports.
During a wide-ranging interview, Paxton “gave the clearest signs yet that he’s planning to challenge Cornyn in what could be one of the most expensive Senate primaries in history.”
Said Paxton: “I think I can win if I have $20 million. I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how he overcomes his numbers.”
“Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will return to a Wisconsin battleground House district next week as part of a multi-state tour to highlight Republicans who have stopped holding in-person town halls following backlash over the Trump administration’s government cuts,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“The former 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee plans to hold a town hall-style event Tuesday in Eau Claire. It will be in western Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District — the state’s tightest battleground seat held by Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who like others in his party has declined to hold in-person constituent town halls after GOP leadership advised against them.”
Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is keeping the door open to a possible Republican run next year in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), Fox News reports.
Said Sununu: “I’m not saying it’s a high probability. Can’t wait to jump in. Definitely not.”
“Ambitious Illinois Democrats are dreaming about Sen. Dick Durbin’s exit in 2026. The latest contender: the state’s lieutenant governor,” Politico reports.
“Juliana Stratton, who first took office in 2019, is quietly positioning herself for a Senate bid if Durbin bows out, calling key Democratic figures to ask for support.”
“And she and her staff have said that she’s already secured the support of Gov. JB Pritzker… She and her team have made clear she expects Pritzker to be heavily involved financially.”
Elon Musk already has a starring role in Democratic ads, Punchbowl News reports.
“Pete Buttigieg is expected to announce today he will not run for Michigan’s open Senate seat, clearing a path for a potential 2028 presidential campaign instead,” Politico reports.
“The former Transportation secretary previously confirmed he was ‘looking’ at a Senate campaign, and discussed the prospect with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Buttigieg’s decision to rule himself out is framed by allies and people in his inner circle as a bid to put himself in the strongest possible position to seek the presidency.”
“Tim Walz is headed back out on the road – this time, for a tour of House districts represented by Republicans who have stopped holding in-person town halls amid the raucous receptions some of their colleagues have gotten across the country,” CNN reports.
“The Minnesota governor and 2024 vice presidential candidate will start on Friday in Iowa, in the district represented by Rep. Zach Nunn, then head across the border to Nebraska, for the district represented by Rep. Don Bacon – both of whom won tight races for re-election last year. Walz’s team is already planning stops in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio for the coming weeks, with more stops expected to be added.”
“Former Gov. Chris Sununu isn’t closing the door on running for the Senate in New Hampshire, which would make him a powerful contender for the GOP nomination and force Democrats to use more resources to defend the seat,” the Washington Times reports.
Said Sununu: “I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have asked me to think about it and to consider it, and that is just kind of where I am.”
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is “definitely considering” running to replace Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2026, Axios reports.
“The 44-year-old congressman, first elected in 2018, would become the first openly gay male senator if elected — a major milestone.”
“Pappas also represents a swing district, making him an attractive prospect to Senate Democrats eager to hold onto Shaheen’s competitive seat.”
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) “will not run for re-election in 2026, bringing an end to a long and singular political career and further complicating Democrats’ efforts to regain a majority in the Senate,” the New York Times reports.
“Her decision not to seek a fourth term will immediately set off a high-stakes race in a state whose voters are famously fickle. Last fall, New Hampshire voters supported former Vice President Kamala Harris for president and elected Democrats to Congress, but they also voted for a Republican governor and expanded Republican majorities in the state legislature.”
A new Cygnal poll shows Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is deadlocked 44% to 44% against a generic Republican challenger, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
But the numbers shift 52% to 38% in favor of the GOP when voters are told Ossoff “voted to allow men to play in women’s sports if they claim to identify as a woman, taking away opportunities from our girls.”
Larry Sabato’s Cyrstal Ball notes there are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections:
President Trump’s political team is signaling to Republican lawmakers that he plans to be deeply involved in the midterm elections, the Washington Post reports.
“Donald Trump Jr. is endorsing Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor, following in his father’s footsteps and cementing Donalds as the frontrunner over possible contender Casey DeSantis, the state’s first lady,” Axios reports.
“The move by Trump Jr. — a key player in MAGA media — comes after a presidential race in which Donalds was a constant pro-Trump presence on the campaign trail.”
“The California governor’s race isn’t waiting for former Vice President Kamala Harris to make up her mind whether she’s going to run,” CNN reports.
“Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who represented Orange County in the US House for three terms, announced Tuesday she’s entering the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited from running again.”
Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) is launching a campaign for governor Tuesday, arguing Michigan needs a “problem solver” and hoping to defy more than 40 years of struggles that lieutenant governors have had in seeking the state’s top political office, the Detroit News reports.
The Washington Post notes Michigan will be a big test for Democrats post-2024, as they look to defend the governor’s office and a Senate seat.
“President Trump said Monday he will ‘lead the charge’ to oust Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) for his refusal to support Republicans’ government funding bill,” Axios reports.
“A doctrinaire libertarian, Massie has been a persistent thorn in the side for both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) by defecting on key votes and imperiling major GOP legislation.”
A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll in Florida finds Rep. Byron Donalds (R) crushing Casey DeSantis (R) in a possible GOP gubernatorial primary match up, 45% to 23%.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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