Larry Sabato’s Cyrstal Ball notes there are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections:

• The turnout of eligible voters in midterms is consistently lower than the turnout in the most recent presidential election.
• Midterm electorates are typically older, whiter, and more educated than presidential electorates.
• The non-presidential party usually wins a higher share of the two-party House vote in the midterm than that party did in the preceding presidential election.

President Trump’s political team is signaling to Republican lawmakers that he plans to be deeply involved in the midterm elections, the Washington Post reports.

A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll in Florida finds Rep. Byron Donalds (R) crushing Casey DeSantis (R) in a possible GOP gubernatorial primary match up, 45% to 23%.

Wall Street Journal: “The impact of the halt—which U.S. officials described as a temporary pause designed to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Russia—will be limited at first, but is likely to grow over time as Ukraine’s stocks of U.S. ammunition run down, and weapons systems cannot be repaired or replaced, officials and analysts said.”

“The main immediate impact will be felt from the cutoff of intelligence, which will constrain Ukraine’s ability to accurately target long-range strikes to knock out Russian troops and equipment before they reach the battlefield. On Friday, Maxar Technologies said that the U.S. has cut off Ukrainian access to the satellite images that the company supplies through an American government program—imagery used by Ukrainian forces to plan and mount operations, particularly using explosive drones.”

“A lack of fresh arms deliveries will take longer to have an impact but the effect would be broader.”

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is seriously considering a run for governor of California — and has given herself a deadline to decide, Politico reports.

“At a pre-Oscars party last weekend, Harris was asked by another partygoer when she would make a decision about jumping into the California governor’s race. She gave a definitive answer… the end of the summer.”

“In 2018, Democrats won back the House, flipping 41 seats including in conservative-leaning places like the suburbs of Utah and Oklahoma by focusing narrowly on a single issue: Republican efforts to overturn a popular health care program, the Affordable Care Act,” the New York Times reports.

“Now, as Republicans push a budget resolution through Congress that will almost certainly require some kind of cuts to Medicaid to finance a huge tax reduction, Democrats see an opening to use the same strategy.”

Said Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM): “I don’t know why Republicans are doubling down on the same playbook.”