John Avlon: “An open letter to independents about what Trump promised, what he delivered, and what you need to remember before you vote.”

A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Michele Tafoya (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41%, with Rebecca Whiting at 2% and Marisa Simonetti at 2%.

“When Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson announced last year that she would run for the Senate, she promised to be President Donald Trump’s strongest ally in the chamber if she won,” the Washington Post reports.

“Now Hinson is in danger of losing to Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a state that Trump carried three times — and she is taking a more nuanced stance ahead of Election Day as some of the president’s supporters have grown disillusioned with him.”

“Hinson spoke at Trump’s rally in Iowa last week, and she has featured Trump in her ads. But she has also gone further than any other Republican running for the Senate in a red state this year to make clear that she will stand up to Trump, pledging to be ‘a thorn in his side if he’s wrong for our state.'”

A new Noble Predictive Insights poll in Nevada finds Joe Lombardo (R) and Aaron Ford (D) tied in the governor’s race, 47% to 47%, with Danielle Ford (I) at 1%.

A new Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll in California finds Xavier Becerra (D) leading Steve Hilton (R) in the governor’s race, 61% to 34%.

“Early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm election, with millions more Americans casting ballots in advance and particularly sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races,” the Associated Press reports.

“The surge is especially pronounced in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor’s races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50% increase.”

“Advance voting has also increased more than 30% from the same point four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, states with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, early voting is up 83%.”

“Jessica Killin, the Democratic candidate for Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, has a ‘principal residence’ in Maryland, according to Maryland Department of Assessments and Taxation records,” the Washington Sun reports.

Andrew Sullivan: “‘Pretend I’m on the ballot!’ the president insists, as if there is any other Republican on the ballot. It’s been two years of governance without a Congress — the lifeless body effectively passes one bill a year while deferring in every other single respect to the cult leader — so voting for a Republican congressman or senator is, quite simply, a vote for Trump. And an endorsement of his de facto suspension of constitutional balance.”

“So vote for anyone other than a Republican next Tuesday. Or if that’s too compromising for you, don’t vote at all. We need to send a deafening message to bring the republic back to some kind of balance — loud enough that the remaining sane Republicans hear it, and emphatic enough to render Trump’s inevitable attempt to delegitimize it futile.”

“This is one of the biggest dirtbags that has ever run for office.”

— A Republican lawmaker in Texas, quoted by New York Magazine, speaking about Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

“With state Auditor Rob Sand favored to win Iowa’s governorship and state Rep. Josh Turek locked in a close race for the state’s open seat in the Senate, Democrats are trying to flip a host of other offices in a one-time swing state that finally seems to have grown tired of Donald Trump’s Republican Party,” The Downballot reports.

For members: The One State to Watch

G. Elliot Morris: “Democrats are getting a lot of support from people who don’t usually vote.”

“As of mid-October, registered Democrats had cast 74.6% of the two-party early ballots from North Carolinians with no 2022 vote on record. At the same point in 2022, that group was 58.0% Democratic. In Texas, as of Oct. 30, Democratic voters in Houston who skipped 2022 are turning out at a 10-point higher rate than Republican Houstonians.”

“This is quite the turnaround for the Democrats. Support for low-engagement voters — including 2024 Trump voters — could be pivotal in key Senate seats next week.”